Hand at Wynn which typically plays a little bigger than a standard 1/3 game. Normally I buy in for the $500 max but everyone at this table had $250 or less except V. Hero in BB, V on button.

Hero ($300): late 20s reg, the fish probably see me as LAG since I usually raise 15-25% of my hands pre while they're mostly limping. Only been at table for one orbit, no hands played yet though, and there aren't any regs so that read is probably meaningless at this point.

V (covers): late 30s early 40s white guy hasn't played a hand since I've been at the table. No reads

Hero dealt KQ MP limps, V limps on button, sb completes, hero raises to $18, only V calls.

Flop ($42): Q86

Hero leads $30, V looks up from his phone that he appears to be texting on, takes about 10 seconds and announces all in. Call or fold?

Ugh snap fold.... You block Qx. Hard to imagine him shoving with worse Qs. That leaves FDs (likely big combo draws) and two pairs and sets. Also you lose to AQ.

Offer to pay him $10 to see his hand after

Cant call here yet.

The hands hes going to flip up the first time around have you smoked or have you racing. I just dont see him flipping over hands you want to see if hes just some random, readless.

Agree with the other poster that you should try to get him to show you one card or something.

Drop it like its hot.

OR

Drop it like its hot.

If you knew his hand was Ts9s exactly, what would you do?

Gotta fold.

You'll find out in the next ~30 minutes if this guy is some kind of aggro spew monkey or not. But with no information, folding is the best option. For all we know, he could be 'protecting his set' against a flush draw.

OP, can you elaborate on your preflop raise and sizing? Don't think KQo plays so well OOP even if it's ahead of all limpers' ranges, plus the raise size looks a bit too small to get everyone to fold if that's what your intention was. Makes sense?

+1,

yeah, new to the table, possible OMC shipping for gross overbet...

I'm fine folding and waiting till we pick up more info on him. If he ships like this 3 times over the next 2 orbits then we made a bad fold and can adjust to him in the future. But with the available info we have on him, folding here is fine and optimal.

the "best" case scenario here is V is on a combo flush draw, pair + FD or SD + FD and the worst case scenario is V has us crushed.

So combining the two scenarios and our total EV is probably around 40% on the flop, so I'm definitely fine with a fold since the math doesn't support a call...

This sucks readless. Is he limping AQ on the B? Unlikely, same with QQ,88.

Is he really calling a raise with 86 when it looks to just go heads up?

Just so many more draws, spazz, worse Qs makes this a difficult decision readless. The shove looks so drawy but bad Vs do this with the nuts.

Flip a coin

+2

+3

Your posts are always pretty interesting wj. I'm assuming you had some sort of soul read, called, and won the hand. As played, it's a lol fold at the overjam.

That would be a call, but barely. May even be a fold; I didn't factor in rake.

Obviously fold considering the entirety of villain's range.

1. I think we should discount as follows:
-- QQ to zero combos (because preflop action and we block)
-- 88 to 1 combo (because V's want value and not folds, also V limped OTB pre -- expect V to raise OTB)
-- 66 to 2 combos (because V's want value and not folds, also V limped OTB pre -- expect V to raise OTB)

2. V's range includes NFD, 1p+NFD as well as OESD+FD, GSSD+FD

3. V's 2p range is pretty ratty. Not really expecting him to limp/call with Q8, Q6, 86. Have to discount these somewhat.

I think this one probably is more a call then a fold. But folding definitely the standard line here.

For 100bb, I probably look him up light, cuz f-him he's not going to snow me with his stack.

I completely disagree with the bold.

Simply put, we don't know this villain. Most rec-fish do NOT think in terms of value, they just think in terms of winning and losing. Level 1 cavemen just bet strong when they are strong and weak when they are weak. When they have a good hand, they like to c/r shove it. That is what they do regardless of how much sense it makes or doesn't make.

Because we are new to the table, we just don't know this villain.

If V is spewy and overshoving light with his draws, we are going to know soon enough via simple observation. If he shoves like this 3 or 4 more times in the next 3 orbits or we catch a glimpse of some of his aggressive actions and showdowns then yeah, we can start calling this guy down light...

but until then, I just think it's optimal to fold. Or put another way, I don't want to pay 100bb for information that I will get for free if I'm just willing to be patient and observe for another couple of orbits.

we have to be careful with this. I used to have an awful tendency to naturally assume players were making moves against me. The reality at LLSNL is that most of the times, when players shove they aren't doing it with airballs, they have real hands with decent equity. So, I would take a step back and a deep breath and tell myself this isn't V trying to Durrr me out of a pot. Odds are he has a real hand, so just fold and acquire more information on this villain.

I remember a few months ago there was this young Asian kid with hoodies, sunglasses, Beats by Dre headphones, and PokerStars cap. I'm new to the table with JJ, he raises from EP, I 3-bet from CO, he calls.

Flop(22bb) T 9 4 rainbow
he chks, I c-bet 13bb, he c/r shoves...

Literally my first hand and now I'm thinking "he might be making a move" but then I decide to fold and wait for more info.

For the next 2 hours this kid folded and then raised, got 3-betted and flatted, he c/r shoved a dry board, got snapped called by QQ but the kid had KK. He then didn't play another hand for an hour. So I felt pretty good about my earlier laydown...

I guess my point is when we are new to the table and lacking information but facing super aggro action for stacks and we have very little vested in the pot, I'm a big fan of just letting it go and acquiring more info. For the first couple of orbits, I'm okay with being a nit while I acquire that information. Then, once we have a profile on our villains and some understanding of the table dynamics, then we can loosen up some and exploit our villains.

Calling would be pretty bad if we are barely breakeven/slight +ev against the bottom of villain's range.

I find a surprising number of V's who just cant help themselves but to SABR-shove with very little equity.

I'd be more afraid if he merely min-raised, or 3x'ed Hero's cbet.

Lol... the bottom of V's range is like QT...

I think you give this line way too much credit.

The bolded part has nothing to do with the decision. Either we believe him that he's super strong and we fold, or we think he's FOS and we call.

How much is invested up till this point is irrelevant.

It's relevance relates to the size of the pot in comparison to our equity vs the range of hands villain can shove with.

Having $38 vested when V shoves for $300 is different than having $138 vested when V makes that same shove...

Apologize for quibbling here a little bit, i do understand what you are saying and I do agree, money we have vested shouldn't influence our decisions, but truth is it does.

What I "should" have been clear on is saying that given the size of the pot vs V's range we can be okay here with a fold.

I just find that using the "vested" argument helps me back down in spots like this when my ego makes me want to unleash the dogs of war and charge in full speed and shove back...

Or put another way, I will use any argument (emotional or otherwise) if it can help me make the better decision. And I just think it is optimal to forgo an "at best" coin flip situation.

When I get a few limps at a passive table and we are <150bb effective I'm almost always raising KQ from the blinds. I don't want everyone to fold, I want them to call with their marginal hands which is what they usually do. When we flop a pair we're usually pretty far ahead and when we whiff we can just pot it on favorable flops and we should get a lot of folds since the raise from blinds/pot flop line looks like an overpair. If they call we just gotta play the pokers. If they raise they must have a monster and we just fold.

What is villain's range when he looks at the flop for 10 seconds and shoves without really considering his options or my stack size?

He didn't seem like the type to limp AQ on the button. 88 and 66 possibly, probably less likely with 88. I didn't think he would play KK/AA this way ever really, so I tossed that out of the range pretty quick.

Call

Definitely not an OMC. Think he was hitting up some wine at the time but not drunk, plus he's like 30 years too young to be OMC status.

Not true because it's all about pot odds.

Let's say that we know he has QQ 10% of the time and T9 90% of the time. We would have 38.7% equity in the pot and so in order to call $252 we need to win $399 when we win. Since there is only $354 to win, we fold. If we had bet $50 on the turn instead of $30, we'd now be calling $232 to win $374 (38.3%) and switch to a close call.

You are right that it doesn't matter who invested the money, what matters is how much money is in the pot and what odds the pot is offering. Let's say Bill Gates sponsored a 5/5 game where he put $1,000,000 in the pot for the first 100 hands to juice the game up (total of $100,000,000). If your opponents ever fold you buy in for as much as you can and try to bluff them out of the pot. If your opponents never fold, you buy in for the minimum and see every river. Even 23 becomes playable even for an all-in pre-flop (assuming you have more cash to re-buy).

Forgot to update this one, results: