Hero (Covers): Young Indian, have been at the table for about 30-45 mins. Opened two hands so far, and both were won with a cbet on the flop 3-ways. Came from a broken table with a $400 stack.

V ($350): 30s White male. Is a reg, although I don't have much experience playing with him. From what I've seen so far he's quite fishy though, doing a lot of limp-calling, and generally playing fit/fold post-flop. Has a common timing tell where if his hand improves on the turn, but not to 2p+, he calls very quickly. After I won my second pot with a cbet, he asked me 'Do you cbet 100% of the time?'. I responded with 'Only when I have it.' As such, I suspect he thinks I'm FOS and is liable to call me down light. I've only seen one showdown of his so far in the following hand, which shows he can also bet thinly for value:

2 limps to V OTB w/92o who over limps. Solid LAG in BB raises to $15, both limpers call, V calls.

Flop: 69Thh, LAG bets $35, folded to V who calls.

Turn: 3x, LAG checks, V thinks for a bit then checks.

River: Tx, LAG checks, V bets $45, LAG tank calls and mucks.

I've played with the LAG enough to know that he would only make that call if he'd seen V bluff before, and LAG had been at the table for quite a while longer than I had. As such, this hand leads me to suspect that V is capable of bluffing on the river.


Onto the actual hand:

Folded to hero in MP w/88 who opens to $15. Folded to V who calls from the BB.

Flop ($31): 479

V checks, hero bets $20, expecting to get called by any draw, any pair, and sometimes overcards. V calls without too much thought.

Turn ($71): J

V checks, hero bets $40. V tanks for quite a while, and it's clear he's deciding between a call and a fold, and then calls.

River ($151): 8

V leads $100 after a small pause.

Hero?

The bolded, how do you know? I think it makes a difference in how you read the hand.

Hands that get there: 9T, 7T, QT(s), actually based on history V could have T4, right? JT seems unlikely based on your read. So there are a whole bunch of T's in his range, but if your turn read is correct, some of those hands should call a lot quicker and therefore can be discounted from his range.

Your read says you *think* he can bluff the river, but you haven't exactly seen that yet.....hmmm.

What hands bluff this river? Busted spades, maybe some weak pairs...? Not much else.

The fact that he can bet thin value on the river is also a consideration...one that weighs toward a call. So there's a lot to consider here.

All things considered, I think it might be a call, albeit a very marginal call. You're relying on some limited reads and he has to be bluffing a wide range basically always.

Lots 'o Ts in his range.

Given you have position and initiative its less likely for him to be value betting two pair here and you have blockers to a lot of those combos, so I think his range is polarized to a straight or air.

Given the size and his fit or fold disposition that you have witnessed, rather than the bluff capability you assume to exist, I would fold.

Based off the turn read, I felt that the only Tx in his range here would really be T6 or maybe QT-AT which floated flop, since all other Ts would call turn faster. What I was really wondering here is, what hands besides Tx is he ever doing this with?

I would typically open limp, but we got it HU in position with initiative, so good result (i.e. your table might be tighter than mine).

I'm cool with the flop bet.

I'm ok with the turn bet. The board is pretty drawy so there are draws to charge, and we can easily fold to a raise, plus a bet isn't getting our stack committed (I would plan to check back the river). Against a guy who could possibly bluff, I wouldn't hate a check turn / call river either.

Against a guy who could possibly bluff or even is capable of value betting thin, I think we have to look him up on the river. Some draws got there, some didn't, and two pair might just be not knowing what else to do.

Gnicehandifyoucalled,imoG

Fine with the flop and turn bets. Priced draws and KQ out with the turn sizing. I think those are the most important streets and you made good decisions.

Guys in my game will never do this otr without Tx so I can fold very easily. If there are guys capable of doing this without Tx then I made an awful table selection decision. I'm not saying you have, I'm just saying I don't know what to do otr because I'm never in this spot with my player pool.

Talk about a sick sick spot.

One of the things about this level is that it's rare for players to turn made hands into bluffs. Similarly, most players at this level do not bluff whiffed draws OOP (hell or even in position).

So this means that in spots like this, it is rare for V to be bluffing. Especially when he showed obvious weakness on the turn.

So when he bets $100 on river, I think he has a ten since Tx (especially T9) is a hand in his range.

I also wonder if his hedging on the turn could have been T8 and he just didn't know how to play turning the nuts...

Also, the key piece of info for me is his sizing tells and if he had actually been caught bluffing. It's one thing to go for thin value bets, quite another to bet $100 on a scary 4-to-a-straight river OOP.

Hmmm.... I also like to ask myself, "Is this player good enough to turn a made hand into a bluff OOP on a 4-to-a-straight board???"

A lot of times, the answer is going to be no. As sick as it sounds, I think river is a puke fold here. A call is not terrible however I've found that these are the spots where a lot of players level themselves with looking for live reads. These are the spots where players like to turn over their cards and go into the whole hollywood routine of "trying to get a read" and then after 3 or so minutes they call.

Imo, this is a form of self leveling (not saying you were doing this). Just saying we have to be careful with making calls solely based on our gut feeling and reads we "think" we may have picked up on just because we turned our hand over so villain can see what we have (if your cardroom allows it heads up)