I'm folding. Nobody bluffs like that. You have exactly what it really really really looks like you have.

If you were V and held TT, would you shove river?

The original raiser had like $70 to start the hand so I don't think the 3b sizing means much.

I've never played with anyone good enough to fold this....

It may mean I'm bad but I find lots of cooler situations very foldable in 2/5 and below full ring. It may be exploitable, I just don't think anybody will be exploiting it. I would have to have more history and a decent read to call this.

Results:

Hero, did you show ur hand?

What does he check the turn with then shove the river? I know I said call quickly before, but think about that action. Pretty sure he bets the turn with TT hoping you have an A. Pretty sure he bets 88. Same reason. So, when people have the nuts on the turn, they sometimes check to let you catch up. Unfortunately, you caught up.

I still think this is a call, but I can see why some want to fold after analyzing the action.

The question I have is how does V check behind on the turn there when he's got the 2nd nuts and you still have over 3/4 of the money you started the hand with.

The last comment above I'm not so sure on...

I don't see a V calling with TT on this river. The amount of times your opponent has 88 or AA here is tiny and KK is basically never (although he did in this case).

I think you would be hard pressed to see too many just calling with AK. Let's say, you have AQ, you 4-bet pre-flop, spike an ace then bet the flop. After he checks behind on the turn, you probably think your AQ is probably good and bet the river. After you 4-bet and C-bet the flop what range could he put you on if he has AK. AA (not many combinations), TT (possible with a 4-bet), AK-AQ (most likely), 88 (almost never), KK (almost never, except in this case). If I'm sitting with AK against what your probable range is in the hand, I would at least consider pushing when my opponent's range is almost certainly AK and AQ.... although I would probably just call.

Don't understand why sure bet on turn with 88 (quads, 1st nuts) but no bet on turn with AA (FH, 2nd nuts), but bet on turn with TT (FH, 3rd nuts). He doesn't have the nuts on the turn.

it's just a line i have seen taken regularly and it would turn out to be what you thought - AA.

grunch: he called quickly pre and didnt 5bet. his timing and flat call would discount AA a lot. I think he shows up with TT here a lot, sometimes AA. Call

you're calling $370 to win a total pot of $1600, so you only need 23% equity to call. i would range him on AA, TT and possibly some random spaz bluff with a hand like QQ, JJ. i dont see how you can fold here despite results unless you know he never plays TT like that

i dont see why he couldnt jam TT here for value, especially since you'd be getting crazy odds and he cant expect you to fold AK here. also he'd probably expect you to check AA on flop a lot. if you had TT, I agree its a fold

Given how deep you guys started the hand with, TT is in his range, and if TT is in his range no way we can fold river.

Now, if V had 3-bet to $50 and we 4-bet to $150 and then V called then we can absolutely get off our boat on the river because TT shouldn't be in his 4-bet cold calling range when we put in a sizable preflop 3-bet (unless we have some serious history with V and often get involved in leveling wars).

But given the opening raise was $10 and then V min raises that to $20 *(which could be a bet to juice the pot some) and then we 4-bet to $75 and you guys are $800+ deep, V can flat this with TT to set mine. And if V has a boat and AK is in our range (which it should be) then shoving the TT boat isn't terrible by any stretch.

Just sucks he woke up with AA.

Anyways, the only and I mean ONLY way we can ever fold this river is if we 100% remove TT from villain's range. And I don't see how we can do that. Unless we have him pegged as a nit who never raises with less than JJ then sure, we can put him exclusively on AA. But if he is a normal reg then TT is in his range and if TT is in his range then we make crying call on river

Oh, also realized we can put QJs in his range which gives him a double gutter on the flop (and we checked turn giving him a free card). Granted, that is probably more on the thin side, but I think that 5% or maybe even 10% of the time he can show up here with QJs double gutty straight.

So if 5% of the time V can have a QJ straight, and another 5% of the time he has T8s or A8s bs, and 25% of the time V has TT, then we have to make a crying call on river. And I think those numbers are not unreasonable...

I just don't think anybody is raising that river with TT with those stacks at this level.

Full House = the nuts for 95% of the LLSNL population.

Now, if the board was A T A J 5 then yeah, the TT FH probably doesn't raise river.

But TT on a A T 8 8 K board can and will definitely shove for value especially after we check the turn. AK, Ax, QJ or even bluffs are in our range. And a lot of villains nowadays have gotten the memo about value betting.

Value betting today is like where c-betting was 4 years ago, the word is getting out so that even Joe Blow rec-fish is starting to do it.

I just typed up a big post that Steve Jobs just stole from me, but here's the gist:

I can not envision a villain, really anybody at 1/3 but specifically to this guy, that would play a hand where he c/c's twice in the KK hand in his description, then thinks that TT = FH = nuts on this board with this action.

I stopped trying to figure out how LLSNL players arrived with the nuts when they're shoveling 200BBs in there. But AA makes a ton of sense here and TT, the only hand that we beat, does not.

Agreed.

I love getting thin value and I think I would just be calling this river given the action/bet sizing.

TT really beats very little on this river, except the rare AK. Problem is, AK rarely bets that large on the river and rarely will call a shove.

With all that being said, I'm not folding this in game but I certainly wouldn't like it.

Just curious, but how many people are calling with TT on the river instead of shoving if you are in V's spot? I think if the K doesn't hit river then shoving is fine since only losing to AA (probably never 4b 88 from the SB this deep against a competent reg), but with a range heavily weighted toward AA/KK, it seems like wishful thinking to be up against AK more than a bigger boat. I know if I was in V's spot with TT I'd just flat the river given the action up to that point, although I definitely would not have checked it on the turn.

What about folding TT in V's shoes?

Never folding TT for $240 in V's spot given the action since AK is still in my range, but I feel like shoving is pretty thin hoping for AK instead of AA/KK.

In this exact spot TT is a flat OTR. It's a competent player vs competent player matchup, ie I feel pretty sure that you will b/f AK. Against a station it's a lot more tempting to value raise...but then again not sure how many stationy fish have AK in their cold 4b range as opposed to AA/KK. So maybe there's a paradox there.

Also, if a player flopped the set and was simply planning to call/call/raise then he might ignore context and bomb away despite the fact that he can no longer get the majority of action from hands he beats.