He's saying that if we think we are going to see a scare card OTT a huge portion of the time, then why raise. I think he is confusing scare card with a card that helps V.

The OP said what's our plan? So what's our plan when virtually all the time we're going to see cards that hit the range we've given Villain? What mistakes do we expect Villain to make playing that range? Would it be a mistake for Villain to call with those hands? He'd call 90% of them if he could see our hand correct?

When he claimed that we're raising to stack that range, that was more hyperbole than a plan.

It's not at all clear that that range is less profitable than KK. That EV calculation sure doesn't prove it. We still need to get to the river somehow.

don't even know where to start w/ that post

I'm sure that's true. It's pretty easy to come up with an imaginary range and say we're ahead. That's not really a plan.

If we raise and Villain shoves what do you do? If he calls and a six comes on the turn and he shoves with AQ, or a set, or whatever he has what do you do?

Pretty easy to say we haz overpair we stack-off.

I understand where you are coming from. I had a couple of the same thoughts.


So we can raise now and shut down on scare cards... We can call and shut down on scare cards... Or we can call and if a blank comes then we can attack. Maximizing our value (setting up the potential to play for stacks) and reducing some mistakes because we rarely put ourselves in a position to fold the best hand. Sound about right?

Pretty much, but just because a card hits a villain's possible range doesn't make all scare cards equal.
A Q is a much worse card for us than a an 8, as he has more Qx combos in his range than 98s combos.
An A is a bad car because it helps both his AQ combos and any nut draw combos in his range.

While I may shut down on an A or Q, I am not shutting down on cards that hit the smaller portion of his range that could make 2 pair. B/folding in those cases still looks good to me.

I understand all of this. As I said before it's a range issue. I think there are two different range camps and that's most of the problem with the discussion.

Garlick!!!! Why did I let you pull me from my cave?

Once again I'm lazy and not going to add any flush draws to this. Here's a pure value range for villain (no idea how you could call this wide):

MP2 59.30% 59.30% 0.00% KK
MP3 40.70% 40.70% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, 98s, 76s, AQo, KQo

and since you guys flipped out over my having the 3 extra combos of 98, here's with just the straight flush draw, watch our equity plummet (btw forgot what the original hh was but I was using spaded on my calculator):

Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.60% 58.60% 0.00% KK
MP3 41.40% 41.40% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, 76s, 9s8s, AQo, KQo

Ok so still looking good. Also given how villain donked off with a8o the other hand I think that he's probably calling as wide as q10 which would look like this:

MP2 67.68% 67.68% 0.00% KK
MP3 32.32% 32.32% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, QTs+, 76s, 9s8s, AQo, KQo, QTo+

If we want to add flushes to his range then we get this (****ing hate you guys this is why I don't play in strat threads anymore):

MP2 65.34% 65.34% 0.00% KK
MP3 34.66% 34.66% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, QTs+, 76s, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo, QTo+


Note with the exception of 10js and k10/kjs I gave him no naked fds, they are all combo draws as the ace is higher than our kings and the rest are some type of straight flush draw.

If we want to tighten his queens calling flop range (although the other hh suggests we shouldn't) then we're up against this:

MP2 57.34% 57.34% 0.00% KK
MP3 42.66% 42.66% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, 76s, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo


Still ahead.

So like I said previously, we're slowing down on Q turns (worst for our hand)

MP2 38.45% 38.45% 0.00% KK
MP3 61.55% 61.55% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, 76s, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo


Ace turns (doubt he has this many axs in his range, so pretty sure the Queen is much worse than this in reality)

MP2 30.97% 30.97% 0.00% KK
MP3 69.03% 69.03% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, 76s, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo

and turns that bring in the flush:

MP2 39.94% 39.94% 0.00% KK
MP3 60.06% 60.06% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, 76s, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo


That's 3 queens, 3 aces and 9 flush cards which is 15 cards. Contrary to popular belief 15/45 is close to 1/3 the turn cards, not 80%.

If the turn bricks (I put in an off suit 2) here's our equity:

MP2 66.23% 66.23% 0.00% KK
MP3 33.77% 33.77% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, 76s, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo


and we bet again. Once again: 3 naked fds, no straight draws, and no queens lower than kq which have good reason to believe is not the case. Here's a wider, more realistic range imo:

MP2 74.29% 74.29% 0.00% KK
MP3 25.71% 25.71% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, QTs+, 98s, 76s, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo, QTo+


Also APD your method does not get as much money in. Because if he calls the flop then he's now faced with a larger bet on the turn which he will call >0% of the time.

Only 2 queens homie. One of the queens is one of your flush cards.

Raise the flop too 55/fold to a shove.

Bet 75/fold on any non A or Q. I'm still betting club turn cards to get value from QcXx and stubborn top pairs, though I think depending on which club it can be close between a bet or a check.

Just because a card comes that completes a draw in villian's range doesn't mean all the other combos in that range magically disappear.

4 queens in the deck homie :P

How so? I fully expect him to bet into us on blank turns. If he bets enough we might be able to get him to commit his whole stack there... Or we may have to milk him a little. IMO both lines may be pretty close, only difference is my line is super reduced variance line. Basically I am calling my hand a MV hand OTF (top of my MV range) because of board texture and the range that I think he is playing and thus I am playing KK accordingly.


BTW, HOMIE... There is a Q OTF... Only 3 queens left... One of which is counted in your flush card count....

Putting in half our stack to fold to a raise seems gross to me. After all, one of the reasons we raised was to play for stacks against TP, and TP could easily make their commitment decision to shove on the turn.

Also, what happens if dude just calls/calls? We'll have 1/2 PSB left on the river, which also seems gross.

But again, it sounds like I'm taking the super passive low variance route. Unlike APD (I think?) and perhaps others, I'm not calling the flop in order to wait for safe cards / let villain unexpectedly commit himself / etc. before springing the tarp shove on later streets. I'm simply never happy playing for stacks in SPR ~8 pots with just an overpair; I'm calling to play a small pot that (hopefully) isn't for stacks.

Gscaredypants,gotagood2for1dealonthematWalmartG

Ooooops got ya.

So I guess it's actually 14/45... so even lower than 1/3 of the cards.

If Garick raises to 80 or so otf then pot is 160 + 36 = 196 ott. He can now bet anything 120+ (probably on the larger size due to this guy being a whale). So lets say 150 because that's easy for me that's 496 going to the river.

If Garick calls flop then pot is 76. if villain bets 1/2 pot again (not 100% certain) then that's 40 + Garick's 40 that's 156. So if we want to pot to be just as large going to the river Garick would need to raise that bet to 210 or +170. That's a very large raise, and villain is more likely to call 60 more otf and then then 150 on the turn rather donking 40 and then calling 170 ott.

Also if villain checks, even if Garick pots the turn otr it's only going to be 228... less than half of if we raise the flop.

Even if you make the bets smaller (vs this whale I wouldn't) it's still difficult to get as much money in.

GG he didn't c/r TPGK ott in the previous HH. Why is he doing it now? We need ~42% to bet75/call ott. If he c/r any card that could help his range were probably smoked. However there is still a ton of value to get from worse.
B/f turn. Maximize value!!!
GbalugatheroumG

A lot of this depends on our interpretation of OPs drunken past-his-8:30pm-bedtime-still-unpacking-moving-boxes original post.

BGP is reading it as our villain is a whale.

I'm not reading it remotely like that, so maybe that is *part* of the disconnect. I actually read the Villain as cluefull enough to know when he's up against a spewtard and to adapt his game appropriately (in this case gritting his teeth and calling down in the history hand). My guess is Villain doesn't view Hero nearly the same way as he does the spewtard.

Gyousaytomato,IsaycarrotG

I read the V the same way. Also having played manyyyyyyyyy hours with Garick, Garick's raise is going to be interpreted as a very strong hand, even if it's the first time you've ever played with him.

GgarickisnitsauceG

Cuz in the previous hand he's up against a spewtard (i.e. correctly letting him spew), whereas in this hand he's up against a nit (i.e. where he's much less likely to think his TP is good, and also perhaps much more likely to get nitty Hero to fold with a semi-bluff).

And while I'm all for the Baluga Theorem, I'm not sure it applies to cases where we've stuck in half our stack.

Git'spossibleI'mgivingVillaintoomuchcreditG

Grunching:

If it were a dry board I might just call and see what he does in the turn. As is, I'm raising and bet/folding turns most likely. Now to read.

So now random live rec. fish are soul reading Garick as a nit after a couple orbits? Dafuq is wrong w/ you ppl?!

Random live fish are going to recognize this and c/r semi bluff the turn when 99% of the player pool would never b/f here?!

And now your logic is changing from having him c/ship TP to c/f bc garick is an ldo nit?

Since when do they even care about anything besides their own 2 cards?

Baluga theorum does apply b/c we need 42% vs his c/r which we will never have.

GexploittheLoosePassivelivepopulationtendencyAndB/fG

Gi100%agreewithggG

Oh I finally understand now that this V had aj and other V had a8.

Still doubt he's folding kq or aq so just use that equity chart I posted.

Ya, I mean this is fair enough. But I just sorta hate getting myself in bet/fold situations when I've stuck in half my stack and Villain could easily go either way (either folding vs shoving and doing a mental coin flip as to what to do).

HAHAHAHAHA! Dude, I thought you understood that like 20 posts ago.

Let me tell you something about Garick... Every game he has gone to he gets labeled as a nit right away. He has the nit look down, I've already said this. Nit fo life!