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1/3NL: KQs facing river bet 1/3NL: KQs facing river bet

11-10-2017 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigK
I like the check on the turn. You aren't getting 3 streets of value with your hand and it sucks to get check-raised especially if you did turn backdoor diamonds.

You can make a strong case for folding the river. Villain is a tag reg which makes me more inclined to think he is a competent player. Villain shouldn't have any air at all on the river since there aren't any draws at all. You c-bet into 3 players so you don't have air which means villain shouldn't be floating you with A-high.

Yes you underrepped your hand, but that's not a bad thing. You have to ask yourself what hands is villain betting that you beat? He has no bluffs and all his pairs have sdv meaning he'll c/c a reasonable sized value bet. You beat only KJ, KT and K9, but from the size of villain's value bet, it seems unlikely to be the case as he should be value betting closer to half-pot.

Unless you have reads here where villain will spazz out with hands like 99 or 97, I'd fold here. At a first look, folding looks highly exploitable, but in reality, what's happening here is YOU'RE exploiting villain for his failure to bluff the river in this spot with an appropriate frequency.
Yup. Exactly. The whole thing about having underrepped our hand only matters if V has a well-constructed range. Most V's do not have any bluffs here. I don't find this convincing at all:

Quote:
Originally Posted by $FishWreck$
A sophisticated player could be floating OOP here. The other two V's folded the flop before he called. Hero bet only 1/2 psb on flop, which makes some V's suspicious.
People don't float OOP versus a 4-handed bet. Nobody reading this has ever done that. It happens at LLSNL with a frequency that is statistically identical to 0%. It's correct play that it doesn't happen, because the bet there 4-handed is going to be heavily value oriented. Moreover, you're trying to have it both ways here with V - that is, he's a player sophisticated enough to OOP float, but unsophisticated enough that he gets "suspicious" when facing a completely normally sized cbet.
1/3NL: KQs facing river bet Quote
11-10-2017 , 10:23 PM
The reason we can get some floats here is because we can have some bluffs here. This flop is dry enough that I’m gonna be exploitably c-betting all of my AQ/AJ/QJ combos at similar sizing to OP because of how unlikely it is to hit their range + our blockers. I’m probably still c-betting my mid PP’s for equity protection and to not get bluffed later. Villain still has a minimum of 16 KJs/KTs combos that should be taking this line, in addition to a number of weaker hands that don’t beat our bluff catchers.

This is one of the few boards I will c-bet bluff 4-way but our chance of success is just so high vs. most opponents that there’s going to be some weaker floats by thinking villains.

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 11-10-2017 at 10:50 PM.
1/3NL: KQs facing river bet Quote
11-13-2017 , 12:02 PM
Thanks for everyone's responses.

Given that we checked back the turn, I decided my hand was so underrepped that I had to call the river. That was my thought at the time. However, when I thought more about it, given villian's sizing, and him perceiving me as a player who would pot control the turn, I didn't think his bet on the river would include any bluffs due to the lack of draws. I expect him to check all hands in the middle of his range and bet for value with his big hands. The large bet sizing made it even more likely he had something > KQ.

Villain had AK after I sigh called....
1/3NL: KQs facing river bet Quote
11-14-2017 , 04:38 PM
Preflop really depends on position for me. The later in position it's been folded to us, the more I'm cooler with opening. The earlier position we're in (at least at my loose tables) the more I'm cool with open limping.

I'd lean towards checking the flop. It's completely drawless and we're not looking to build a big pot on this board, plus underreps / disguises our hand and could induce bluffs on the flop or turn.

As played, I'm also checking back the turn. Against the majority of opponents if bets go in on the flop and turn on this board, we're typically behind.

River really depends on how bluffy this guy can be to our shown weakness on the turn. At one time this was an insta-call for me given how I played the turn, but over time I've realized that a lot of players simply aren't bluffing enough here. The sizing of the bet also has to be figured out. Our hand kinda looks weak, so you'd think a good hand would perhaps bet smaller to get paid off. But sometimes the big bet is simply a big hand looking for big value that was missed earlier. The problem is that there ain't any missed draws on this board; Villain would basically have to be floating the flop with air OOP, or going for really huge value with KJ.

ETA: Basically on board with BigK's post (post more, imo).

Gtoughspot,imoG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 11-14-2017 at 04:43 PM.
1/3NL: KQs facing river bet Quote

      
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