Hero: TAG been at table for an hour $400. Was stuck so a little stubborn to get action.
V: Seems like a reg. loose pre, but tight/aggro after the flop etc. $500

1/3NL:
V limps in EP. folds to Hero in BB KsKd $13. V calls.

($26) Flop 632r
Hero bets $12, V calls.

($50) Turn Jd
Hero bets $25, V raises to $66. Hero calls.

($182) River Qs
Hero checks, V bets $125. Hero ????

What frequencies are we calling/folding this and is V showing up here with anything besides 22,33,66 and maybe 45... I expect him to open raise 77+, AT+ here pre.

Do you have an idea of V's limp call range pre? This would be a great hand to run through a solver imo

B/f turn

I fold to the turn raise.

A TAG at 1/3 raises you on the turn? Baluga Theorem fold.

The turn card eliminates a lot of hands that could legitimately call the flop for value. I'd mostly check on the turn and trap/bluff catch. Lot's of aggressive players will read your check as weakness and attack it with bluffs.

I too fold turn against a TAG seldom checkraiser.

I would bet 20 on the flop.

50+25+66=141... 31 to call? Fold turn? Seems a bit silly to fold for this price.

Call turn, x/decide river.

Knowing what I knew during the hand, I thought it could be a lot of off suit broadways (JT), some middling suited connectors (86) , and small pairs.

V would def raise all pairs 77+, and suited broadways JTs+ I would think because he seems competent.

Maybe this just happens at 1/3NL, but do you think V could be employing this line a lot if he thinks Hero is tight enough that he will overfold on turns/rivers?

Hero has been playing tight pre so V could think he only continues with big pairs on the turn and likely folds to a big bet on the river a high frequency of the time if Hero is c-betting too much.

Only you can assess your tightness. Are you leading turns often and folding to raise on turn too much?

Are you folding rivers too much after calling raises on turns? How often are you re-raising turns? Only with strength? maybe balance this out.

Are your calling frequency skewed because you sometimes get here on semi bluffs that miss and now they think you are weak?

These questions only you have the answer to.

I'm probably over folding a little bit on turn raises, but at 1/3 I think we can exploitatively fold because most V's are going to be 2 pair+ heavy with very little bluffs.

I may be coming to conclusions for each player too soon though because I called on the river and V mucked.

fold

Not getting three streets here, turn seems like a good time to check/call...underreps your hand and gives him the chance to bluff or valuebet worse hands

Hey TPTK77,

I thought this was an interesting hand, so I gave the V some ranges pre, on the flop, turn and river and calculated EV for a river call. I'm probably wrong half a dozen times. If there is anything you think I should modify range wise, let me know and I'll recalculate.

The description of the V seems like you might not have a clear idea of how he plays post-flop? The tight/aggro description seems to be opposite of each other? Is there something I'm missing there?

I suspect he's most likely a typical 1/3 player who limp calls insanely wide and overvalues one pair + draw and top pair+ no kicker. He will "value bet" in ways that just seem super spewy.

So, with those assumptions in mind. Here's the range construction I have for him.

Preflop:
66-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o

Flop
66-22, ATs, A6s-A2s, KJs, K6s-K2s, QJs, JTs, T7s, 97s-96s, 86s, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, 76o

Assuming V Continues w/ pair + any draw + some 2 overs

Turn range:
66-22, A6s, KJs, QJs, JTs, 76s, 64s+, 54s, 43s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, 76o

Assuming V clicks back with pair + draw, weird Jx and stronger hands.

River range:

66, 33-22, QJs, 64s+, 54s, 43s, AJo, QJo

Assuming V bets bigger here with some overvalued Jx, some 2 pair, and continues to bluff with the low pair + draw hands to get you off AA, KK, AK, TT, 99, 88, 77 etc.

Against river range, we have 44% equity.
EV = $65 for a call.

I don't hate a fold, don't hate a call. Absolutely comes down to the V and if you think he's overvalued some of those Jx hands. If this is the case, then we should definitely lean towards a call.

Raise bigger pre. Bet bigger on flop. Turn decision becomes clearer from there.

Thank you DornishRed for taking the time to put in an analysis. When I say he's tight/aggro, I mean that he's tighter than the normal ATC, but he seems like he's willing to barrel or size up to get some folds. Just the feeling I got since he's a 20-30 youngish WG sitting with the table max etc.

As played, the spot felt extremely close. I honestly thought that V maybe would have raised the flop, larger on the turn with a flopped set. Also, I thought that V would check back a ton of showdown hands when I call the turn raise (pair+draw hands) unless V chose to turn them into a bluff.

Bluff catching is definitely not my strong suit, but I'm finding people tend me make moves vs me (idk why) and I'm having to bluff catch with my big pairs when V's apply pressure on the turn/river.

I'll be way in the minority (plus it is style dependent) but I would consider just rapping the table preflop and attempting to win a small/medium size pot postflop by underrepping our hand. A limp folded to the blinds is admittedly not normal in my game, but typically a raise out of the blinds is what you think it is, so the more that is turning our hand face-upish deep OOP to an loose aggro player, the more meh it is.

I would consider checking the flop for much of the same of my preflop reasons. We don't really want to be building a big pot OOP to a guy who might make life difficult to us. Let's start to underrep, induce, and otherwise manage to keep the pot small.

And ditto thinking for turn. At this point, our goal should more lean to getting towards showdown instead of building a pot, especially if facing a raise OOP puts us in a gross spot (which it absolutely does). I would consider folding to the turn raise, but I likely wouldn't have bet if I didn't feel comfortable doing that. All the marbles are in his court now, which sets up a terrible river spot.

By the river, it's pretty obvious what we have. So is he trying to eek out value against it? Or bluff us off it? Either way, our previous 3 streets have put us in an very awkward spot, one where we were mostly going to be left with a very mediocre hand (one pair) and yet now we're in a huge pot with a 5th bet going in (which we almost never want with one pair).

Gimo,andI'llbeoutvotedG