Hero (Covers): Been at the table longer than V, has a winning, aggressive image. Has only shown down over-pairs+, also taken down some pots with bluffs, but did not show.

V ($420): Mid-20s Irish, seems to me somewhat loose-passive. Playing less hands than most players at the table, but still probably about 25%-35%ish of them. Haven't seen him open raise once yet. Built his stack mostly from a hand where he limped K9o, and stacked a guy who limped AKo by calling him down on a K9897 board.


Onto the hand:

V limps UTG, 3 more limps, including SB to hero in BB w/K7 who checks.

Flop ($15): 772

Sb checks, hero bets $15, V calls fairly quickly, everyone else folds.

Turn ($45): 3

Hero bets $40, V verbalises call in a way which reeks of strength, which pretty much tells me he has 7x+, since he seems like the sort of player who is incapable of folding trips.

River ($125): Q

Hero bets $120, V goes all-in after a few seconds and a brief Hollywood, hero quickly folds.



Mostly after your thoughts on my sizing, as well as if we can even think about calling the river here. Also, on a Kx river I was planning to c/r AI given his turn tell, thoughts?

This is a call. If he's incapable of folding trips, then you are losing to A7 (4 combos), Q7 (3), 37 (3), 27 (3), and 22 (3), while beating sevens with kickers of 4,5,6,8,9,T,J (all 4 combos). Beating 28 combos, losing to 16.

I think it's a lot closer than it looks. The problem with this analysis is Villain is probably not raising a ton of those 28 combos that Hero beats (and Villain probably is raising almost all of his combos that does beat Hero). So basically it comes down to whether you think Villain will overplay his trips with low and medium kickers or not.

I would also probably have check raised most nonspade rivers (not just Kx ones). The sizing would depend on how much villain bets.

I don't think a loose passive V is going to be raising hands like 76 and 75 in this situation that often on the river, especially to the almost pot-sized bet on the river. There is a chance that V can overplay trips in this situation, but in my experience a spot like this meaning V has or is very close to having the nuts. I would most likely fold here in this spot, as played. Oh, and fold this hand pre-flop since it is pretty much garbage and even with a dream flop you are put into a difficult situation.

With $420 effective stacks, after betting $170 or close to 45% of ES you fold? ..., That's definitely a supreme great play. I would suspect you are definitely a winning player. I could not do that. I guess I still have lots to learn.

Reread OP please.

Sorry, thought hero was in the SB for some reason... my bad

Come on, most of those hands make no sense. If V is playing 27o he's playing 100% of hands, highly doubtful. And he's not shoving all his trips on the river after hero has showed tons of strength by potting every street. Plus he was described as passive

I'm folding here. If v is somewhat competent he must know you are repping trips+. I like leading flop bc we can get value from fds, worse trips and floats which will happen on a dry board for only $15. On turn and river I would b/f smaller. Potting turn and river I think you may lose some of his worse trips unless he is really stationy

ETA: feels like 22 to me if your read on the turn is right. Don't think q7 would feel so confident on the turn whenyouncan easily have a7 or k7. And would a passive player really shove a7 after you've shown so much strength? I wold think not

Getting 200+ bb into a limped pot with out reads that the player is a maniac or the nuts is generally going to be a pretty big leak.

Im torn, but I think folding is fine. But its close.

I think I would have check-called up to a pot size bet on river after your turn read of V. If river went check-shove, probably fold but not liking it.

This is a call, he is doing this with any 7 IMO.

I'll call this one as well after betting river. If your reads were strong you could check call the river. He has never raised pre, he can both jam any seven or spazz even aa-kk here. I can just chalk it up if I were beaten.

If our read on this Villain is that he's extremely passive (probably, based on the K9 hand), then I like Hero's line. We can get tons of value from all the SCs/SGs that include a seven. When this Villain jams otr, it's almost always Q7/22/A7, unless we have some compelling reason to think he's spewtastic enough to take this line with weaker trips or likely to bluff shove otr with whiffed spades.

After your read on the turn, you bet anyway so you have to call if he can have any 7x. If you didn't want to risk more, why did you bet?

Did you plan on calling or folding if he raised?

Just because he can have lots of 7x after the turn doesn't mean he's equally likely to raise our river bet with all of them. The bet works fine as a value bet (planning to fold to a raise) if we're getting max value from weaker trips and rarely getting bluff raised by worse. We miss a ton of value when we check and Villain checks behind or bets $50 with a hand like 76.

I don't disagree, just asking a question. If he senses he's beat on turn, and is willing to throw a pot-size bet out on river anyway, wouldn't it be better to check-call if he's planning on folding to a raise? His hand does have showdown value and now he doesn't know if he's being raised by a full house, a better 7x, or a weaker 7x.

Just to clarify, my turn read was that V had 7x+, not necessarily a boat, since he would almost certainly believe that 7x was very strong. Basically, my turn read eliminated any FD combinations from his range.

I bet so large on the river because I felt that if I bet any less than $100, he might feel compelled to raise with his naked 7x combos, whereas I suspected a larger bet would make V just call with 7x, and only raise his boats.

Oh, and results: V had Qd7d

We can't stack off of this limped pot with stacks so deep. So as long as this guy doesn't consider any 7x the nuts here, I'm cool with betting decently large and folding to a raise on all streets. ETA: On the river we still have 3x PSB behind, so lots of room to bet/fold (and I do like the larger bet because I just don't think anyone is going to raise for stacks with just a 7x; heck, even A7 probably just calls worried about the boat). Nice hand, imo.

I think my plan would be to open shove a K river. I just don't think most villains have it in them to fold a 7x, and we throw up in our mouths if he nit checks behind worried about his kicker.

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