Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
For what I hope is the last time, GG, SPR is a concept designed for HU pots. Considering low SPRs committing when we are up against a lot more hands and thus a higher chance of someone outdrawing us is very bad.
Even though I don't 100% agree with this statement (especially the bolded part, which is not correct at all as SPR can still be useful in multiway pots, even just regarding betsizing let alone some commitment decisions) I realize what you're getting at: that we should be less willing to commit at small SPRs in multiway pots than HU pots (and the reasoning is actually what I continually go back to: the IO we ended up offering). I totally agree. The problem is that with the SPR so low that someone can trivially force us to commit (and it's likely the case we should even just grit our teeth and commit ourselves anyways). What we should actually be doing, imo, is *avoiding these stoopid spots altogether* (but I'm outvoted on that by a large margin, so whatever).
I mean, what's our plan? We've flopped an overpair on a drawy board. Are we just going to check down a huge pot and hope the draws don't come in? Bet (or call) super small bets and just hope for the best? That doesn't sound like a great plan, and it looks like you agree with that thanks to your flop raise. But now we're going to stick in 1/3rd of our stack and then make some sorta soul/speech read with < PSB left on a blankish turn? Obviously I can see our commitment plan changing on a scare card, but when it ~blanks out I just don't see how we can do anything but commit. And this was all pretty much predestined preflop.
I'll let someone do the math, but at this point we only have to be right somewhere around 30% of the time for a call at this point to be profitable. I'm pretty sure we can come up with some ranges that easily make a sigh call here profitable. The problem is that just because a sigh call here is profitable doesn't mean the hand as a whole was necessarily played profitably (toy case: we always raise preflop to stack - $1, making the final call of the $1 bet always profitable but obviously that doesn't make the overall method profitable).
GimoG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 05-16-2019 at 03:35 PM.