1/3 NL at Aria

HJ (villain $525) limps in
Button (Hero, $600) raises 18, I have 6s6h
Blinds fold, HJ calls

Villain is new to table, my impression is he's more aggressive pre-flop and less aggressive post-flop

Flop: 6d7s9s

Villain checks
Hero bets $35
Villain raises $80
Hero call

Turn Kh

Villain check
Hero bets $100
Villain shoves for $400
Hero?

On turn I was initially gonna check as king is a total blank, and getting shoved on feels kinda gross. But then I decide I have way to much value not to bet here. I don't see a set or straight checking the turn here. After I decide to bet 100 on the turn, I feel I probably have to call the raise here... right?? HELP!

As played... Do you call??!

And do you take a different line here initially?

If I raise the flop how often am I ever getting called my much worse?

Given that the dealer forgot to give us cards, I'm probably folding pre

ahh sorry i had 66

As played I would call, but I wouldn't have bet if I was planning to fold to a jam. His line doesn't make too much sense if it's for value.

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Try posting this hand in the LLSNL strategy forum, OP.

AP, it's a super easy snap call, though.

Looks like the mods in CCP moved it over here for you. Welcome to LLSNL.

Pre could either be an overlimp of an open as you did. Both have merits, though as deep as you are I prefer the raise.

On the flop, I like the large c-bet. On this wet board he either has nothing and won't even call a half-pot bet, or he's paying off a PSB. Way to get that value.

The raise from him is a bit concerning, as a semi-bluff would often be bigger and your read says that he's less aggressive post flop. Still, we are doing well against his range and should not be considering a fold.

He is aggressive pre, but limp/called, so we need to discount the bigger sets. Let's say he has 1 of the 3 available combos of 99 and all 3 of 77. That's 4 combos that crush you. He should have all 4 combos of 8Ts for the straight, but you have a ton of equity with the boat/quads re-draw. Then there are his semi-bluffs. Given that he limp/called pre, let's take AsJs-AsKs out of his range. That still leaves 6 combos of AsXs. Do we think JXs-KXs are in his limp/call range pre, and if so, which ones? Let's give him at least KsTs, QsTs and JsTs. Last, but not least, he could take this line with 8s8x. Let's just give him 1 of the 3 potential combos, though. You are at 50.9% equity against that range, and that's including zero random spazz, which always lurks as a small chance.

So we're clearly not folding. The question is whether we raise. Most LLSNL Vs don't really have a raise/fold range, but we might fold out the random spazz and the weaker parts of his semi-bluff range if we raised really big. We don't hate him folding the equity, but since the overs aren't actually outs for him, we'd rather get calls. The good news is that we probably do from almost all of that range. Maybe we lose As2s-As5s, but I doubt it. A raise should be +EV here.

The thing is, a call is likely higher +EV, as letting him continue with his whole range is good for us, and we can even fold in certain circumstances.

Turn is weird. He should never be checking with the hands that beat us. Now I'm weighting semi-bluff much higher and don't want to give him a free card. I don't mind the bet at all, and would likely have even gone a bit bigger.

As played, snap call is obvious. V should have about $427 behind (given the stack size you posted), so it's $327 to call and the final pot will be about $1050. You only need 31.15% equity to call. You have 31.05% just against his bigger sets and flopped straights, so even if we don't discount those as willing to check turn, just including KsTs that thinks it hit its semi-bluff card gives you 35.05%, plenty of equity to call. Every other combo that remains in his range makes it even better.