HJ V1 is nitty tight old man. Rivered a fullhouse (K3 on KK783 board) and did not raise all-in against very sketchy player for remaining $50. TIGHT OMC.

Hero has been folding 99% of hands for the past two hours.

BU V2 has been active, calling preflop with marginal to junky hands. Does not seem like a complete drooler (i.e. does think about hands and opponents).

8 handed play.

Preflop:
HJ ($200): V1 raises to $16
Hero ($400): Calls $16 with AQ. I did not 3! this hand due to OMC opening for the 2nd time of the entire night.
BU ($600): V2 raises to $62
V1 folds
Hero calls

1. Normally I 3! this to knock out Button, but did not want to vs. OMC with his short stack.
2. I considered 4! V2 due to his splashiness - thoughts?

Flop ($144): K96
Hero checks
V2 checks

Turn ($144): K96K
Hero checks
V2 bets $40
Hero calls

River ($224): K96K4
Hero checks
V2 bets $100

Hero action?

1. Villain is splashy enough that he could theoretically have ATC here, so Ace high can be good. Main concern was that I couldn't beat random bluffs, like some random small pair.
2. In a previous hand where he bluffed with complete air, he bet large on the flop and large again on the Turn.
3. My first instinct was that Hero's hand should look like TT, JJ, QQ (maybe) and that the $100 bet was trying to get me to fold. Is AQs significantly different here?

I don’t like your line. Looks like Villain might have some type of suited connectors here that he’s just clicking buttons with. After OMC folds pre I would have liked to just rip it in. Especially if you think this opponent is out of line. You need more info on this opponents range to make this play though. As played calling turn sucks. Rather see you lead the turn. Then bluff rivers. Especially if you’re perceived tight. You’re just going to get in trouble here OOP against a button clicker. Fold turn as played.

FWIW, It's difficult to get over the mental block of playing zero hands all night and then having to make a play with an unmade hand and (obviously) completely missing the flop (again).

How does one get over this? It's been going on like this for awhile....

Easy, get rid of your entitlement tilt. Just because you’re whiffing flops and pots all night doesn’t mean this one is your pot. You don’t even have a bluff catcher against this player IMO. Even if he’s getting out of line with a hand like 910s preflop or any pair you’re still losing.

You say V2 has been active pre by calling; how often is he 3betting, especially vs. a short tight OMC and another tight caller? Unless he's 3betting often, that sets of alarms.

As played, I might just call him down and even sexier is a shove, but not if he's sticky enough to call w/ a hand like A4 or J9.

Can't fault a fold and wait, though, which is probably what I'd end up doing.

Good point. This was his first 3!

If you guys are into live tells, he gave me the "furrowed eyebrow look" after I called OMC, but right before he proceeded to 3!.

LOL. That is almost always a sign of strength, and that's what I default to unless I have a different read on a particular player. He probably has quad Ks

Meaningless tell unless you’ve seen him showdown hands with a furrowed vs unfurrowed brow over a decent sample. Tbh I try to look as miserable as possible every hand I raise.

GRUNCH

Is this real?! He got in for $3 in the HJ with K3s? He's at a table with a group of loose/passive players. There would be reason to trust his K3 here.

I once went 3.5 hrs in a great 1/3 game at MGM National Harbor & only put money in pre 3 times! They were giving me a rash of shytt about it, but jokingly because they've been there before.
When asked why I didn't table change to one of the 13 1/3 games, I told them that I've looked around & this game is the best.

If I'm getting 30 hands an hour, which is a stretch, that's 105 hands & 1% of that is 1 hand. 30 hands x 2 hours = 60 x.01 = 6/10ths of the time you voluntarily put money in the pot.

I take it that BU is so bad that he is clueless to the fact that HJ has opened for the 2nd time all night? That's not right.......you said he thinks about hands & opponents........so why does he raise the V who just opened for the 2nd time all night?!

Why did Hero flat HJ's open/raise when he believed there was a good chance he was behind HJ's range when there were only 3 left to act? Going to flop a Q62r board are we? Or Broadway, or flush draw?

Yes.......what would your 4! rep when you flatted HJ's open/raise? Surely you're not one of those who flats with AA there, or even worse....KK....or even...God help us...AK.

And again.....BU does think about hands & opponents.....or does he?

So as a 'thinking player' he believes you're tight enough to fold after paying $62 pre & checking down flop & turn? That's his opinion of you?

This time he went check & check........

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[QUOTE=K9Papa;55871443]GRUNCH



Is this real?! He got in for $3 in the HJ with K3s? He's at a table with a group of loose/passive players. There would be reason to trust his K3 here.

I once went 3.5 hrs in a great 1/3 game at MGM National Harbor & only put money in pre 3 times! They were giving me a rash of shytt about it, but jokingly because they've been there before.
When asked why I didn't table change to one of the 13 1/3 games, I told them that I've looked around & this game is the best.

If I'm getting 30 hands an hour, which is a stretch, that's 105 hands & 1% of that is 1 hand. 30 hands x 2 hours = 60 x.01 = 6/10ths of the time you voluntarily put money in the pot.



I take it that BU is so bad that he is clueless to the fact that HJ has opened for the 2nd time all night? That's not right.......you said he thinks about hands & opponents........so why does he raise the V who just opened for the 2nd time all night?!

Why did Hero flat HJ's open/raise when he believed there was a good chance he was behind HJ's range when there were only 3 left to act? Going to flop a Q62r board are we? Or Broadway, or flush draw?

Yes.......what would your 4! rep when you flatted HJ's open/raise? Surely you're not one of those who flats with AA there, or even worse....KK....or even...God help us...AK.

And again.....BU does think about hands & opponents.....or does he?

So as a 'thinking player' he believes you're tight enough to fold after paying $62 pre & checking down flop & turn? That's his opinion of you?


This time he went check & check........

***Best of Live Low-Stakes NL***
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...llsnl-1168186/

I'm not a live reads person, but I always think, what would I do if I were my opponent.

If I were him and I had a K and his image, I'd take the exact same line against somebody that could have TT-QQ, or let AQ, AJ catch up. It's unlikely somebody like me would call the preflop 3! with a small pair so set mining is likely not a problem.

Know what I mean?

Against a nitty open and not much chance of this going very multiway, I think this is a pretty easy fold preflop. Compare our IO vs RIO when we flop TP and it ain't pretty.

I fold to the 3bet. Dude is 3betting a nit just $200 effective against him (although I guess he can't be too much of a nit as he just folded to the 3bet), so I'm giving him credit here and folding again, especially OOP.

I'm check/folding at very point postflop. If this guy is 3betting a nit just $200 deep and shows up with anything other than monsters, then he's a flat out maniac and should be described as such.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I often level myself into thinking that 3! a nit can be profitable if the nit folds out all but the most premium of hands.

V1 did indeed fold pre, which means he is not just raising with ultra-premium hands.

My flat looks quite weak (I just decided I wanted to hang on due to card deadedness), which would actually make his 3! quite profitable in the long run, as he raises and takes this down most of the time.

Until I see the spoiler where V2 has ATC, I think you're mostly leveling yourself into how often people are 3betting an OMC with a nitty image (who literally doesn't raise a fullhouse with lol money behind) sitting on a small $200 stack remotely light. Cripes, even QQ is probably just a standard flat for most people in this spot.

GimoG

You mean if Hero has QQ?

If so, that's why I said I believe my hand looks a lot like TT, JJ, QQ, IF V2 is thinking. Hero shouldn't really 3! the OMC with very many hands at all.

FWIW, yes, I would just flat the OMC with QQ.

But knowing that V2 could believe that my hand is capable of being QQ-TT, that makes his 3bet even stronger looking than it already was against the OMC nit open (which was already super strong).

Personally, I'd be very surprised if this was anything outside of AA/KK/AK, and if it is, this guy is going into my PokerJournal / Players notes so I know for next time.

Gdon'toutthinkyourself,imoG

Right. At least we're both on board with what Hero "should" have.

Off-topic. If I did have QQ/JJ/TT and played it this way, is River still a fold?

So, you call w/ AQs but not with a small pair to set mine? Makes very little sense. Personally, if I were ever to flat here, it'd be with a small pair way before AQs.

The burrowed frown is a very obvious strength tell from the average player -- I don't care what anyone in this thread thinks. I'll go with it 100% unless I see otherwise.

Oh, and your first 3bet being against an OMC tight player who only has $200 is also a pretty good sign of strength

I would call the first OMC bet but not the second one from V2 for $46 more, given the OMC folded and I only had about $334 behind.

If the OMC called the 3!, I would call with a small pair to setmine vs. 2 opponents.

setmining in this scenario is no effing way profitable from any angle in the long term.

Paying almost 15 BB for set mining is a rip-off.

Hypothetical [V1 has AK & doesn't fold to V2's 3! flatting instead/V2 has same hand or AA]

Now Hero is putting in $46 more & closing the action with his 66.

$186 + $4 blinds - $7 rake & BBJ = $183 - $46 investment = $137

Now there's no reason for V2 to check behind with AK otf & V1, with his AK & short stack may shove, or at least bet. All the money should get in by the turn & now Hero has invested $334 to win all that money.

We have to remember that original $16 is sunk when V2 3! so Hero is calling $46 to set-mine here.

$46 x 14 = $644 - $137 = $507 more needed & that's doable 3 way but you need the perfect storm.

V1's $200 & V2's $400 = $600 - $7 rake = $593/$46 = 12.89x his $46

HU:

It appears that Hero's stack is too small to set-mine with 66. He's putting in $46 to see a flop & there's $94 + $4 blinds -$7 [rake & BBJ] = $91 in pot before he calls $46 pre with his hypothetical 66. That's a tad under 2:1 after tipping dealer, so Hero need about 13x $46 more? But he started with only $400.

If it does turn out that V does have AK, says to himself otf "That's a non-threatening board; let's let him try & catch up, or stab at it ott," and Hero does just that when V gets trips & all the money gets in, Hero is winning $416 +$4 blinds - $7 rake = $413 - tip, for his $46 investment pre.

That's not the dream scenario, it is only 8.98:1 on his $46.....which is barely profitable. Then there's the times V has AA calls H's turn bet & rivers an ace. Or, rivers an ace with AK, or has KK. I've seen people make quads over a set before

I guess it''s true that we need to see the potential of making 15x our preflop investment with those small PPs to overcome the times we flop a set & still lose............?

It certainly appears that the ES chip count is too shallow to be calling $46 HU to set-mine.

I did the math for my own benefit of seeing just how tight this scenario is for Hero's 66. I think I got it right.......if I did, a 'perfect storm' does not come around that often & when it does we're making less than the theoretical 15x our money to compensate for those times we flop a set & still lose.

Amirite?

As gg said I'm not excited about cold calling with AQs against a nitty old man especially given our RIO. We are going to flop top pair and have to stack off almost always. If I am flatting pre it is with AA/KK with the specific intention of GII on most flops and coolering QQ/JJ.