Quote:
Originally Posted by kimchimpanda1
I would call the first OMC bet but not the second one from V2 for $46 more, given the OMC folded and I only had about $334 behind.
If the OMC called the 3!, I would call with a small pair to setmine vs. 2 opponents.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRiBaH
setmining in this scenario is no effing way profitable from any angle in the long term.
Paying almost 15 BB for set mining is a rip-off.
Hypothetical [V1 has AK & doesn't fold to V2's 3! flatting instead/V2 has same hand or AA]
Now Hero is putting in $46 more & closing the action with his 66.
$186 + $4 blinds - $7 rake & BBJ = $183 - $46 investment = $137
Now there's no reason for V2 to check behind with AK otf & V1, with his AK & short stack may shove, or at least bet. All the money should get in by the turn & now Hero has invested $334 to win all that money.
We have to remember that original $16 is sunk when V2 3! so Hero is calling $46 to set-mine here.
$46 x 14 = $644 - $137 = $507 more needed & that's doable 3 way but you need the perfect storm.
V1's $200 & V2's $400 = $600 - $7 rake = $593/$46 = 12.89x his $46
HU:
It appears that Hero's stack is too small to set-mine with 66. He's putting in $46 to see a flop & there's $94 + $4 blinds -$7 [rake & BBJ] = $91 in pot before he calls $46 pre with his hypothetical 66. That's a tad under 2:1 after tipping dealer, so Hero need about 13x $46 more? But he started with only $400.
If it does turn out that V does have AK, says to himself otf "That's a non-threatening board; let's let him try & catch up, or stab at it ott," and Hero does just that when V gets trips & all the money gets in, Hero is winning $416 +$4 blinds - $7 rake = $413 - tip, for his $46 investment pre.
That's not the dream scenario, it is only 8.98:1 on his $46.....which is barely profitable. Then there's the times V has AA calls H's turn bet & rivers an ace. Or, rivers an ace with AK, or has KK. I've seen people make quads over a set before
I guess it''s true that we need to see the potential of making 15x our preflop investment with those small PPs to overcome the times we flop a set & still lose............?
It certainly appears that the ES chip count is too shallow to be calling $46 HU to set-mine.
I did the math for my own benefit of seeing just how tight this scenario is for Hero's 66. I think I got it right.......if I did, a 'perfect storm' does not come around that often & when it does we're making less than the theoretical 15x our money to compensate for those times we flop a set & still lose.
Amirite?