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1/3NL: AK Call or Raise River?

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11-03-2017 , 04:42 PM

TPTK77

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,438

Both Hero and V are new to the table. No reads. $300 eff

MP and CO limp, Hero BTN raises to $18 w/ AdKs, both call. 3 way to flop.

Flop ($58): 5d5cTh MP checks, CO bets $25. Hero Calls. MP folds.

Turn ($108): Kd CO checks. Hero checks.

River ($108): Jc CO bets $35. Hero Calls or Raises for Value?

Thoughts:
I think with a 5x hand, V continues betting on the turn. when he checks I assume he has a weak 1 pear and below a K. rare times he pot controls with a Kx hand but I expect him to check those on the flop.

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11-03-2017 , 05:25 PM

the_dude_174

adept

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 824

Agree 5x bets turn almost always. Could be JT or any Tx for that matter. Kx is less likely. $95/f nh

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11-03-2017 , 05:35 PM

dmccoy87

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 647

I expect a lot of Tx here, but not expecting many calls from Tx if we raise. Just a call for me. If we do raise, then we need a plan if villain reraises. A reraise is usually Tx turning into a bluff, is sometimes JT, and is rarely 5x. Save yourself the headache and just call.

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11-03-2017 , 05:52 PM

BlueClaw

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 34

I like raise/ fold to reraise. If Tx is not calling any (or in rare case bluffing us out), then I like going bigger to target exactly JT or an oddball hand like AJ. Unlikely, but a loose passive is capable of limping AJ and donk flop thinking he might have best hand why not probe bet. Sizing 95-115.

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11-03-2017 , 06:11 PM

Sashua

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 98

What @dmccoy says. Opening up the action could get dicey if he reraises. His line is weird - seems like he has a weak hand. I think Tx is very likely. But if he actually has A5 and is trying to induce action?

Anybody thinking KT? Betting a jack or ten here for value is pretty silly. The board doesn’t even allow A high to call really. Raising to around 100 folds out pretty much any ten or 99 and below. What’s left for us to get value out of - JT? Maybe? I like calling

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11-03-2017 , 06:25 PM

the_dude_174

adept

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 824

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmccoy87

Yeah I really do agree with all of this. I've been working on thin value spots lately and thought this looked like a good one. We are ahead of most anything besides 5x but I get that little else continues. Is that a good enough reason to not bet, even though we are ahead of the range we give him?

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11-03-2017 , 09:15 PM

dmccoy87

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 647

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_dude_174

I think the range that we beat that calls is just far too narrow. Most of the range that we beat either folds or turns it into a bluff.

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11-04-2017 , 04:05 AM

GenghisKhan

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 122

Hmm,..

Maybe nice hand but weak play. Anyway, enjoy it ..,

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11-04-2017 , 07:33 AM

Chicagodude

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,810

you underrepped your hand but i would just call here and be cautious about what he has with a paired board there

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11-04-2017 , 10:54 PM

#10

TPTK77

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,438

Hero raised to 90 and V folded and showed 88.

I'm guessing he threw out a blocker bet on the river and was going to bet/fold.
I think I'm still leaning toward a raise/fold line since I think Villians at 1/3 have 0 reraise bluffs in their range. They are just not capable of it, but certainly capable of calling with worse.

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11-04-2017 , 11:15 PM

#11

dmccoy87

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 647

Quote:

Originally Posted by TPTK77

Do you think villain calls with Tx?

I think your right about bluff reraises not being common. Assuming villain never bluffs in this spot, the question is whether you get calls from his range. I don't think you get called by worse, which is the main reason I call here. I could be wrong, Tx could call here too.

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11-04-2017 , 11:27 PM

#12

TPTK77

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,438

I think some Tx hands such as AT call here but I think it will dep on sizing and how big of a station you think V is.

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11-04-2017 , 11:38 PM

#13

the_dude_174

adept

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 824

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmccoy87

IDK man, I think if we are beating most of what he gets here with, we need to raise. ppls love to station down otr with 2nd or 3rd pair when turn goes chk/chk.

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