Been at the table for a few hours and Villain has been loose aggressive. Calls pretty wide preflop and plays passive post flop. I've seen him raise with combo draws though on the flop and turn.

OTTH:

Villain: $210
Hero: Covers

1/3NL: EP limp, Hero raises w/ AcKh in CO to $15. V calls, limper folds.

(Pot $37): Flop Ah6h2c Hero bets $20, V Calls

I expect villain to call with Ax, flush draws, middle pocket pairs etc.

(Pot $77): Turn 8h Hero bets $50, V moves all in for $175 total. Hero??

Front door flush comes in. I expect to see a flush most of the time or air turned into a bluff. All sets, Ax hands and mid pocket pairs are folding or calling this turn. Hero has top pair top kicker with the nut flush redraw.

How often does villain bluff here?

Let's assume Villain made his flush. That gives us just 7 outs on the river, or about 15% equity. We need are calling $125 into $425 so we need about 3.4:1 in order to call if we are against a flush. Currently we are looking at 5.7:1 in order to hit our flush. We need a pretty significant number of bluffs here to make this a neutral EV call, let alone a +EV call.

I say lay it down is your best move. Picky, picky on my part, but I raise more on flop.

I think it's better to check/call turn here to avoid this spot. The Kh helps greatly even if you're behind.

V's range OTF should be TP, 2P, sets and flush draws. When the flush gets there OTT, you're only beating TP now, and I doubt he's shoving even AxQh over your double barrel.

If turn checks through, all rivers are an easy value bet and may even get looked up by a worse TP if sized appropriately.

Looks like you didn't have a plan when betting turn --- FOLD now.

If all the other stacks are in the smallish $200 range then I'm fine with opening although I'd typically open to $20 to get in 10% where we can then feel pretty comfortable stacking off postflop with TP in an SPR ~4 pot.

Here we got in 7% of stacks and created an SPR ~5. Board is somewhat drawy. Since he's loose he could easily have any Ace or any piece. I would consider myself committed for stacks here (which is why I'd like to raise a smidge more preflop). I'd probably want to get this over in just 2 streets, so I'd slightly overbet the flop to setup a turn shove, probably like $55 which will leave $140 into $147 for the turn.

As played, I'd probably just check and evaluate the turn. Just noticed we have the nut redraw, which really means we don't want to get blown off our draw; he might check back some showdownable hands (which is fine as he's drawing extremely thin at this point if behind). If we bet and he raises we'll likely have to fold, which we don't really want to do with the redraw.

GcluelessNLnoobG

i thought about check/calling the turn for pot control given the Kh re-draw, but I thought he would flat with all non flushes and I could get value from much worse. A9-AQ etc