Hi all,

Haven't been playing much due to being busy, so was pretty lost here.

Hero (BTN) - ~$250
V1 (BB) ~$250
V2 (UTG+1) ~$300
Rest of table is roughly 100bb deep.

3am on a Saturday night - people are generally friendly. Hero has had some pretty brutal bad beats over the past few hours and almost everyone at the table is still there.

V's are all fairly tight and play rather face up. V1 has been playing pretty solid and has been playing pretty TAG-gy. Has 3-bet a few times (though over a long period of time so nothing super fishy) - the only I saw was where he 3-bet shoved over a short stack opened and V1 had QQ. He did the same with TT against a short stack. So maybe seems to have a good sense of ranges and where he would stand.

Important HH:
(I don't recall the pre-flop action)
Flop: 5c6c8s - there was a bet, call, raise; and V1 tanks for quite a while and eventually folds. After he says "good fold. had so many outs" - this after all the draws brick so I'm assuming he had the NFD or some kind of combo draw.






OTTH:
V2 limps from UTG+1; another MP limps, CO limps.
Hero has TT and raises to 21
V1 in BB calls. V2 calls. all else fold.

Flop (~$65): 6s6c7h
V2 bets $60.
Hero flats the $60
V1 x/r all in. V2 thinks for a bit, shows his neighbor, and folds.

Hero?





So idk about flatting the bet from V2. Should I be just jamming over his lead? I range him on A7; 99; I guess he can have some 6x; maybe even a hand like 78s but that's unlikely.

Pot is now ~$410? Hero has ~$170 behind.

I don't see many value hands I beat. We do know that V1 seriously tanked with his combo draw. Not sure what he flats out of the BB with but I'm guessing 89s is in that range? Maybe 99? I have to feel like he 3! QQ/KK/AA from the BB vs my button open? Judging from his 3! frequency, it looks like he would 3! his premiums almost always.

One thing to note: Hero tanked for a minute and looked at V1 and my God was he breathing extremely fast and hard. I could see his chest moving rather quickly as I tanked.


Is this a fold even given the information + pot odds? Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

V2 pot lead on flop looks strong and so does your call. V1 is solid and TAG so I expect he realises he has very little fold equity here and therefore his range is value heavy.

I kind of expect V1 to just call 76s, 77 and 66 to keep you and V1 in and let V2 bet turn. This suggests he most likely has 6X or JJ+. I think he realises 99/88 can't get called by 7X here and they sould be a call or fold on this flop, not a shove. He might elect to shove 77 on flop though figuring the strong action on flop means he is mostly up against 6X and an overpair that can both pay him off right now but could be scared off by straight cards and overcards respectively on the turn.

Although your pot odds are reasonable I just don't think solid villain shoves anything weaker here and therefore you need to fold.

The physical tell could mean a bluff but could also be acting to induce a call or real stress at the thought that V2 has folded and now you are about to fold too - a disastrous result for a big hand. I'd ignore it and stick to the logic of the hand that a solid TAG player would use at a table of tight ABC players.

Also of note is V1 may well believe that you are tilted if he saw you get bad beat recently. He might assume this means you are extra likely to call and thus he is that much less likely to be bluffing. Now this may also suggest to him that you are more likely to call with some weaker hands like 7X and 88 but that's not enough to cause him to shove 99 while V2 is still in the hand and looking strong.

Finally it would be nice to have a specific read on V2 since that would really help reading the whole hand and might alter your flop action. For instance if I read V2 as tight and ABC I would be pretty concerned about a pot sized donk bet into 2 players. I might well conclude that it represents too much strength and just fold immediately. The trouble with calling a pot sized bet with an SPR of under 4:1 is you are pretty much comitted to the pot. This was really the key decision in the hand and now you feel railroaded into calling V1's shove. Don't call off your stack, fold and reconsider your initial flop call.

One final, final thought! Even if V2 is known to be bluffy enough to warrant a call with your TT vs his donk bet then V1 should still only raise for value because he knows that you are calling with a range that doesn't contain much 7X (since you raised big preflop) and so your range is mostly 88+ and you are potentially tilted and thus really unlikely to fold. This scenario would just about let V1 think shoving 99 is OK but it is still actually a mistake IMO.

After 3 limpers and just a $250 stack, I'm pretty sure we can get away with raising to $25 just to make it that much easier to stack off postflop with an overpair (while charging way too much for ~setminers to profitably setmine).

SPR is 3.5 on the flop so we're looking pretty committed here. Board isn't too drawy and thanks to the PSB on the flop stacks can easily go in on the turn, but I don't want to scare the donker away. I'm cool with the flat.

Weird shove from the villain, tbh. Does he really coldcall a raise preflop with 6x? Does he really check/shove the flop with a hand a strong as 77/66? My guess is it's much more likely he has something like JJ+, although even then he might 3bet preflop worried about going to multiway with him being the first caller. But having said that, our hand kinda looks like it is; maybe he thinks we just can't fold it? I mean, are we ever flatting AK here?

I'd probably call cuz I feel so committed and we're ahead of 99-88 and chopping with the other TT, but I don't feel great about it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Something else to consider is: what did V2 fold? The hands that make most sense are 7X and 99/88. I already said I don't think many tight players donk bet pot with any of these but people do play weird sometimes. Of these hands 88/99 are more likely for a big donk bet then A7/K7.

It is a bit convoluted and tenuous but I think it is very possible that V2 had one of the hands we are hoping V1 has and therfore V1's shoving range is even more heavily weighted to JJ+ than we might initially estimate.

I agree with raising bigger preflop. I'm usually going 5x +1bb per limper with my value hands preflop so that would be $30 here.

I believe V1's flatting range pre is slightly wider because lots of players limped and could be seen as fishy and V1 wants to play in hands with these fish. 67s or 6As I think are highly likely to be in the range. It is 3am on a saturday night after all...definitely 77 and 66 and JJ are in range too. QQ/KK/AA would most likely 3bet large to get out the limpers.

But the logic of the hand is that V1 has you beat. V1, if they are good, has a pretty good idea of what your range is after 1.) raising pre and 2.) flatting a quite large flop bet

For me even if I had stone cold nuts I could be shoving here because in my mind V2 is showing strength and you are showing strength and there are plenty of high cards that will shut down the action. So I would like to just get the money in now.

V1 is repping nutty hands imo. V1 is probably not flatting pre with 89s and probably realizes that a st8 draw on a paired board is not worth a shove.

V1 probably realizes 88/99 is not good vs your range with how you played your hand.

V2 probably had something like 7A, 88, 99 and overvalued the hand.

V2's range is weighted towards hands that you would want to go up against but reduces that range for V1

Also I know from my experience when I was new to live poker and land uber nuts and there is huge action on the flop and I try to get money in and players are folding, I would get really stressed and my body would change - because I'm pissed and wanting more money out of the hand.

I would fold.

Ha ha, 5x +1bb per limper with 3 limpers is of course $24 here not $30. Nevertheless, I think you can go even bigger since you are on the BTN and you are going to be given a wider isolation range than usual and quite possibly going to be deemed FOS by some disbelieving types. $30 might be too big psychologically but $28 or $29 would be alright.

Instead of following a Mx + 1bb/limper formula, I think it's more useful to try to target 10% of stacks if I feel that is possible at the table. This will produce a very easy to play situation postflop with TP/overpair, in that HU we'll have an SPR of ~4 and thus can easily play for stacks by a flop PSB to setup a turn PSB shove (or on dry boards 3 small bets for stacks if we want to take that line). By getting in 10% of stacks preflop we also prevent ~setminers from profitably calling (especially HU). Of course all table / stack dependent, but I think in the end it's a more useful tactic, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Thanks for the input all. I found the in-depth analysis to be really helpful. Thought some of the logic laid out here was pretty sound.

I thought the hand was kind of fun because it definitely screams that I am beat and that was obviously my first thought (and second, and third).

Given V1's 3-bet frequency, I truly felt like he would 3! JJ+ here. It would be a great squeeze spot for him, and (I feel) a terrible spot to flat anything like JJ/QQ. There are no short stacks that are going to jam to let him iso and in all likelihood we would get a few other callers if he just flats.

V1 has been pretty rock solid but seriously contemplated semi bluff jamming his combo draw in that hand earlier and it just led me to believe he could certainly do it here.

V2 - I did not think he had a monster at all. Him leading didn't feel all that strong (even though it was almost a PSB). It felt very much like A7 or maybe OESD. Maybe even 88/99.

GG: good tip on 10% of stacks pre with your value hands. I've heard it before but must have forgotten it before deploying it.

I'm going to remember it this time and have made a note to use it at my next session.

Thanks dude!

This just goes to show that shoving the nuts on this flop is probably not a bad plan which is what I would do. So a shove doesn't always mean non-nutty hands.

P.S. nice suck out you luck box. QQ isn't too surprising to see in full ring live play. I see lots of players actually flatting AA/KK pre live as well and when I barrel and they are just flatting I always get nervous with JJ/QQ on a low board thinking ....omg....they probably have KK/AA....FML...

^ yep, QQ is not a 100% 3bet for any players in my game.

I really don't think flatting premiums here is a good spot to do so... And this player did seem like the type to 3-bet QQ almost always FWIW. But hey... I ran like ass all weekend so I didn't mind a suck out here one time...

But in all seriousness... I think the feedback here was really good from all. Some good logic here and good points.

I think I fold the vast majority of the time here but I leveled myself into a call.

also remember that just because you see a player do 'some' things that you might consider 'TAG' it DOES NOT mean they are well balanced TAGS. They most likely hold to some very fishy elements in their game because most live players are just bad.

One case last week I played live. One player I was showing respect to and thought he seemed pretty legit TAG. Then in one pot he overshoved a low flop like 459 2 clubs pot was $100 and he shoved his entire stack of $800 and yes there were other players in the hand that had $500, $600.

I was like......oh.......wow..........what........the... .........?????? after he turned over QQ and was like "Yeah I just didn't want anyone sucking out on me"

Out of curiosity (for those who are still reading the thread):

What is our calling range here? is JJ a fold? QQ+?

Great question. Using the logic we used above, AA is also a fold. But I tend to show too much respect to live players after playing online for a while so if loosen up our logic to include weirdly played QQ/KK then AA is a call I think.

I used to play live quite a lot and ran at $50/hour at 2/5. THinking back then, I didn't give so much respect. But if you play online and live both together, it takes time to split them apart in your head and realize the gameplay is much different.

@p0ker_n00b - AA would be a pretty sick spot.

Given pot odds + including the weirdly played JJ/QQ/KK we can prob make AA a call.

I agree. KK...probably gonna call. But 1010 is too weak. JJ I fold. QQ, I probably just sigh fold....

QQ+ I would probably feel I had to call getting those odds and I'm fairly confident it's a good call. Then you've got JJ and TT you beat and all V's boats probably slow playing while 6X is a bit unlikely and KK+ mostly 3bet preflop.

JJ is the one I'm finding hardest to know what to do with. It's very close, QQ ahead of you, TT behind and a small number of 6X combos tipping the balance but not so far that you don't have pot odds . It's still probably a call but I'd fold as I'm a nit

I also find GG's thinking quite interesting--I definitely use that math when I'm 3betting (make set mining unprofitable, targetting stack percentage--though I tend to target like 25+% of stack, etc). Given what I know of gg's style, it makes alot of sense to simplify preflop math with premium pairs to keep out of tricky later situations--given that LOLLIVEPOKERZ you probably get some takers.

I've found such preflop play falls massively on its face when I try it, but it does work for plenty of guys.

As per the hand.
Grrrrr. Call and hate life or fold. To fold I'd need to think: 1) villain never does this as a semi bluff 2) villain somehow has a rando 7 in his range and never folds here (with preflop thats harder) 3) Villain never bluffs like this (prob true for most villains)
There's a fold to be had, on a good day I'm finding it, on a bad day, I'm not.

Yes, this is definitely a way to simply postflop play and help avoid difficult situations later. In this particular case, we would have created a trivial postflop situation for us (one where we would have lost our stack, ha, but that's poker). The more confidence we have in ourselves correctly dealing with difficult postflop situations, the more we can deviate from this preflop. I'm of the opinion that most of us overestimate our postflop skillz, but that's irrelevant. FWIW, this ain't my idea: this is straight out of PNLHE.

Regarding 3betting, I typically like to offer poor 8:1 implied odds with TP type hands on the call (since in most smaller stacked games the SPR will be so small that it will almost be impossible to lay down TP/overpair, which our hand can easily be read as if we're playing fairly tight). PNLHE doesn't really address the 3betting issue very well, imo.

GcluelessraisingnoobG

What book is PNLHE?

And given I've written a guide on postflop play (that is poorly written and is in bad need of elucidating), I prob don't overrate my postflop skills.

Humorously i have found big sizing hurts my game as lower tier thinkers start to parse my starting hand strength and far more importantly I reduce the number of times players take questionable holdings deeper into hands.
My specific style/image leads to a lot of awful decisions from Vs w one pair. I also am very likely to smooth behind a big raiser w TT-AA (as I normally have a high 3b percentage, if/when we make it to showdown it lowers my 3b% as people will correctly note: the hell am I 3balling w? Answer: Trash sir, always trash)




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Professional No Limit Hold'Em (Flynn, Mehta, Miller).

GIbelievewherethewholeconceptofSPRcamefromG

GG and Maskk, thinking about this idea of sizing raises and 3bets to get the SPR you want on flop:

I usually buy in short and then try to run my stack up. With 40bb (£80 at 1/2) it is obviously trivial to raise 10%+ of my stack AND get called. Once my stack is bigger it gets harder to raise 10% and get called.

E.g. I have £250 at 1/2NL and I'm UTG with a value hand 99+ AQ+. I can't (in my game with my usual image) raise this to $25 and get called except by Recs with reasonable strength or regs with stronger hands than mine or PP to set mine. Probably up to $19 is capable of getting called fairly loose but $20+ is a "big raise" if there is no stradle or limpers. What should I do?

I've been playing around with the idea that once I can't go 10% on a raise I should split my normal raising range up so that I limp some (TT/99 AQs AKs the occasional KK+), fold some (AQo) and only go for the big raise with the very strongest hands that really need a low SPR (JJ+ AKo). I'd also start adding some weaker speculative hands to my lmping range (pairs AXs SC). Obviously this is only in games where open limping is common (100% of my games). I'll obviously loosen my raising range in later positions.

If I'm in later position facing a load of limpers, a straddle or an open raise then raising >10% of stacks and getting called is easy until I'm up to 200bb+. If it is folded to me I think I should use the same plan as in early position except I add more value hands to the big raising range and lmp more speculative hands.

Thoughts?

@ rage

To me raising in EP comes down to 3 main things: stacks sizes, looseness of table, and difficultness of opponents. The smaller the stacks, the less likely a raise is going to go eleventeen ways, and the more face up ABC our opponents are, then the more I'll lean towards raising my raising hands. The less those things apply, the more I'll limp my raising hands (typically to reraise).

So, yeah, if we're sitting on a $250 stack at 1/2 NL and highly doubt a raise to $25 is going to ever get called, then for me it comes down to the other two factors. Is a $15 raise likely to get called by just one ABC opponent? If so, setting up an SPR of 8 OOP, while not great, ain't horrendous. But if that $15 raise is likely to get called in 2 spots, including by a tricky opponent, then setting up an SPR of 5 OOP in this spot is pretty gross, and one that I'd like to avoid. So I'd lean towards limp/mostlyreraise.

ETA: Overall, I think our thinking on preflop is fairly close.

GimoG