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1/3 - Value bet river? 1/3 - Value bet river?

03-18-2013 , 09:06 AM
Villain is utg w/ $400 behind. Middle aged white guy with glasses. All night has played tight and passive. When available, he limps 80% of the time. Never saw him raise pf. Have not seen him showdown anything but TPGK or better. Him and I have not been in a hand together all night.

Hero is MP w/ $275 behind. Hero has looked tight and aggressive. Anyone looking would notice hero’s focus on playing hands in position. Hero has not shown down a losing hand at the table.

Villain limps, as do two others, hero limps w/ 33, sb completes, bb checks. 6 on the flop, $18 in pot.

Flop comes 394 w/ 2 hearts.

Villain bets 12, folds to hero, hero raises to 35. Blinds fold, Villain calls. 2 players, 90ish in the pot.

Turn comes a non heart 7.

Villain checks, hero bets out 65. Villain Calls. $220 in pot

River comes Ten of Hearts. Board reads 3947T w/ 3 hearts.

Villain checks, hero?

Good spot to shove my last $170? Check behind?
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 09:32 AM
I'd bet more on the flop, more on the turn. Vs non flush rivers you can still barrel and get called off. Villains holding is very likely two overs flush draw or maybe even a pair + FD. Vs this villain when you shove when the FD completes I think he'll fold the times he has TPGK and sometimes perhaps even fold two pair.

There's also the times he has 99 and 44 and you're crushed.
Id probably check river.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 09:44 AM
This hand is very read dependent. Does this V play his flush draws aggressively, will he limp with trash?

I personally would doubt a tight passive player would. I take out 9,4 3,4 or 9,3 that he's playing this way with. I think he's on 1pair (77+) or a set on the flop. You're 81/18 to that range so I'd be shoveling it in.

Last edited by NicholasK; 03-18-2013 at 09:53 AM. Reason: double checked math
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 09:50 AM
I feel really sick checking back this river, if I'm checking back a river this is the top of my checking back range. If stacks were bigger, its a simple $100 bet fold. If we bet here we're committed. And if we bet less, it's gotta be pretty clear we don't have a flush. Sounds pretty exploitable, but again who's exploiting us at these stakes?

I would have went just a touch larger on flop and turn, about $36 to 40 on flop, $75 to 80 ott, then check back river on this card

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1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 09:51 AM
I think the key to this hand is whether this villain is capable of betting a draw on the flop. This particular villain sounds pretty passive so if he is betting a draw, it is probably only strong draws such as FD+TP (not sure if the 9 was a heart or not), FD+OESD or FD+GS. He doesn't sound like the type to lead the flop with an OESD. If you think he is capable of leading the flop with a heart draw, then I would check behind. If not, then I would shove.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 09:52 AM
If there are six people in the pot including sb and bb then the pot size is $12 but as played with $171 behind I would probably bet/fold. I don't think shoving is bad but 9x Is a huge part of his range and if we shove all bad players will be scared of the flush hitting and put you on that. Obviously there is the possibility that he has it too.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 10:52 AM
oops thought this was 1/2. 18$ is obviously correct then.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 10:58 AM
If he has an over set your crushed obv. But if he's passive he has a fold button.
Ship the river. Good chance he lays down a set. And weak flush. May call with over pair. I'm sure your happy scooping this pot . Plus you can do so w/o showing... Always a plus..
As played jam the river.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 11:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stacking Chips
If he has an over set your crushed obv. But if he's passive he has a fold button.
Ship the river. Good chance he lays down a set. And weak flush. May call with over pair. I'm sure your happy scooping this pot . Plus you can do so w/o showing... Always a plus..
As played jam the river.
so he's calling with an overpair but laying down a low flush and laying down a set? makes zero sense.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 12:25 PM
I dont think you are going to get a shove called by worse very often here, except maybe AA/KK. He knows you have something (or hit your draw), he thinks you should know that he has something by now.

The only question is will he fold out some hands that beat us if we bet here. IMO sets are the only hands, dont think he is folding any flush here but I dont really think he was drawing to a flush either. Would he really slow-play top set with a flush draw out there? If so, then he might fold to a River bet.

IMO River shoves look bluffy/weak ... Put out $80-$90 as a 'value' bluff bet. I think you are more likely to get some calls you beat, but get the same amount of folds that beat you at less risk. It would be kinda silly to fold if he shoves over your River bet, but I have seen it (and done it) in the past. GL
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ExpectedV
so he's calling with an overpair but laying down a low flush and laying down a set? makes zero sense.
Basically ment there's a fold button there.. Sorry looks like I was rambling
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 01:07 PM
Let's not forget the one straight draw that got there. But I guess he would have c/r OTT if he hit it. I feel that a bet, with the third heart coming, is only going to fold worse and have better call. AA/KK is shipping this flop, as is probably any set. Maybe a T9 that got there OTR calls a shove, but that is probably absolutely it in terms of hands we beat. So I'd check back.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-18-2013 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I feel really sick checking back this river, if I'm checking back a river this is the top of my checking back range. If stacks were bigger, its a simple $100 bet fold.
100% agree with this, stacks put us in a tough spot. I would check back unless you have seen villain display strong calling station tendencies. I think it's doubtful that he calls a shove with worse here.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-19-2013 , 12:07 AM
I don't feel like Villain bets flop with a draw. MAYBE a strong FD like AKhh, AQhh, but I still think he looks for free cards in his position. I also don't think he was playing smart enough to think about limiting my action with odd blocker bets...

I agree any pair 77+ is the meat of his range. I had seen him limp KK in an earlier hand (yes this would have been pertinent info in my op)

As far as causing him to fold out the hands I beat with a river shove, I think pairs JJ+ call.

(This was totally the kind of guy who waited and waited ALL NIGHT for what he thought to be a big hand, and damnit he was going to play it!)

Point taken on flop and turn bet sizing.

Thank you for all of the responses!
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-19-2013 , 02:57 AM
Bet 100. if you get raised, you can fold.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-19-2013 , 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotang
Bet 100. if you get raised, you can fold.
That just seems silly to me. With $430 in the pot after V calls, Hero is supposed to fold $70 more?
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-19-2013 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NicholasK
That just seems silly to me. With $430 in the pot after V calls, Hero is supposed to fold $70 more?
I'd prob bet something around $70 and fold to a raise
There's still value in a bet and turning our hand into a bluff is god awful
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote
03-19-2013 , 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ExpectedV
I'd prob bet something around $70 and fold to a raise
There's still value in a bet and turning our hand into a bluff is god awful
I like the value bet/fold line with a different read on the player. With the Hero's read (if it's accurate) he's crushing. If his reads are wrong, that's a different issue.
1/3 - Value bet river? Quote

      
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