I'm pretty new to the table. Villain seems like a TAG. Effective stack is ~$300.

I open to $10 from the cut-off with A9cc. Folds to the villain in the big blind who 3bets to $35. I call.

FLOP ($71): 8h 9s Kd

Villain bets $15. I call.

TURN ($101): Td

Villain checks. I check.

RIVER ($101): Ah

Villain now bets a whopping $100. What to do?

Fold to the 3bet preflop.

As played, flop and turn play is fine. Now call villain's river bet.

AK and AQ/AJ seem like likely holdings and its hard to get value from AQ/AJ if we raise.

I would fold pre, because A9s has ~35.5% equity vs. 88+, AJs+, AQo+, JTs.

AP, I can't see V betting only $15 otf with top pair, although he may have KQs & is wanting to see how you react since you could have 99,88 & there isn't a flush draw. He probably doesn't put JTs in your range, or he realizes it's a small % of it.

OTT the flush draw comes, as well as the str8 & he checks. IMO, he either has the str8 or A9, A8 in diamonds. He checks to see how you react. If he has the str8 with QJs, he can c/c & donk the river, as it's not likely you turned a flush draw. I would think he would bet out with any set.

OTR V bets the pot because if V were me, I couldn't see you checking back a made str8 OTT, or a set. I would think V would show up with AQ, ATs, A9s, A8s here along with QJs so we're behind QJs [4 combos] ATs [2], AKs/o [4] ahead of A8s [2] & AQs/o [8], AJs [2 unless he checked with AJ] but it's too late to bet this hand & tie 1 combo of A9s.

I would discount AQo because I think a psb on this board with top pair is a stretch. He could be cursing himself for checking the turn with QJs or the A otr gave him 2 pr with ATs, A9s, A8s. I don't think he would have 3! pre with KTs.

I think it's quite possible he checked the made str8 OTT, as many players would here since it would be obvious what his holding could be & then lead out OTR.

Call river

So V was concerned H called flop with QJs, or he's looking to pot control & c/c & c/c river?

We've basically been representing JJ/QQ.

Villain can also have 87s, 65s, JTs, QTs, J9s for random bluffs here.

Top and middle pair is too good to fold.

So much this. Really hard to imagine wtf else he can have.

I should formulate CHRISV'S LAWS OF LLSNL. One of them is "When an otherwise normal-seeming villain takes a nonsensical line, and they can possibly have flopped the nuts, that's what they have".

He flopped top set and panicked and had no idea what to do, so he clicked random buttons. This is typical of how a lot of players react to flopping the nuts.

Think it through. He threebet preflop, then he flopped Kxx, which is a fistpump awesome flop to cbet after threebetting. Instead he made some ridiculous pointless bet. This clearly indicates he didn't flop nothing, or just a draw, or he'd have tried to make Hero fold on this excellent making-people-fold flop. So he has something he likes here.

On the turn, he checks, the straightforward meaning of which is that the turn card hurt his hand, except that's not really possible, so we're into nonsense territory here.

On the river, he comes to life and makes a big bet. If he wanted to bluff, he'd have just cbet the flop. This is a value bet.

So the question is, what's a threebetting hand he could have that is both a very strong hand on this flop and a reason to take a super spazzy line? And the answer is very obviously KK. I'd call at the table, but it's probably a fold, honestly.

I guess the next most likely hands he can have are A8 and A9, but they are both unlikely to threebet preflop (in the hands of most LLSNL players) and unlikely to make that small lead OTF. I also think most players would not pot the river with A8 or A9, like OK, you made two pair, but all indications are that Hero doesn't have a very good hand, most players would bet an amount it's easier to call. He potted it largely out of frustration that OH MY GOD I FLOPPED THE NUTS AND HE WONT PUT ANY MONEY IN.

I'm going to look like a ****** if results are that he didn't have KK I guess, but even if he didn't I stand by all this.

Edit: I guess one last thing to say is that these spazzy lines where people flop the nuts happen mostly when people flop top set, because then they panic that it's impossible for anyone else to have a hand, only one K left in the deck. Also the lines they take are not just nonsensical, but specifically nonsensically trappy. Rather than play normally they resort to betting 1/5th pot and check-trapping the turn.

Fold to the 3bet pre, and I fold now -- at least from here I do.

The fact that the preflop and river bets "make sense" with regard to sizing lends support to the theory that they are what they say they are. The random-ass $15 and turn check could mean anything, from ChrisV's monster theory to something like TT or QJs/AQ that either surprisingly caught up or wasn't strong and wanted a free card. But combining all this points to something stronger than AQ/AJ.

I'm fine with the smallish open in the CO.

I would probably just fold to the 3bet. We'll have position. But we have really poor IO vs RIO when flopping TP, and are otherwise banking on too thin a chance at making better or stealing (which might be difficult against a preflop 3bettor).

I guess I'm also calling the flop thanks to this lol price. Looks like we're either up against a monster KKK, a weak AQ/etc. or a scared QQ/etc. Hopefully the turn will let us know.

I think I would probably lean towards a small bet on the turn. It might fold out better (QQ basically) who is afraid of facing another bet. It protects against AQ/AJ/etc. And it likely buys us a pretty cheap showdown. I'd probably go $30 as the last money I'm putting in the pot.

I'm trying to think of a typical 3betting hand that is somehow weak enough that it needs to turn its hand into a bluff on the river. I can't think of a single one (seriously, not a single one). So unless you expect him to show up with something like 65dd, I think this has to be a fold as his mediocre hands (of which he has a lot) simply check hoping to take their showdown value while his monsters bet huge for value. His TP hands (the only hands we are ahead of) simply don't PSB, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

But apart from 65s, all of these hands have showdown value and there is no reason Villain is going to turn these into a bluff when all Hero has done has called a weak-ass $15 bet on the flop and checked back turn.

And on top of that, if he's like 99% of the pool, he ain't going bat **** crazy and betting a huge PSB of $100 just cuz his obvious AQ got there; he's going to bet $45 or perhaps even check it (because that is what a lot of the player pool does with TP on the river).

GimoG

Shrug call take a note and move on


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Whoops sorry for double post


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snap fold pre to 3 bet with a middling suited ace.

As played, ugh I think I sigh fold, he's got AK or KK 80% of the time.

Thanks for the discussion everyone!