V1 ($1500) was sitting on probably $2500 when i sat down 8 hrs ago, he has lost about $1k, a good chunk to me. He basically never bluffed for the first several hours of the session but has slowly gotten more and more spazzy and tilted. Has shown at least two very big complete nonsense bluffs that i wouldve snapped off pretty weakly because it was so obvious. Complete calling station, calls WAY too often. Has given off massive tells regularly and he isnt faking his tells, you can take them at face value

Hero (covers): LAG on a heater, i hit 6 sets this session, been playing pretty wide and very aggressively, but i actually dont even know that ive bluffed beyond a cbet this entire session because I havent even had air to bluff with. Shown down nothing but value over and over again. Pretty much been terrorizing V1 all day.

a few limpers
Hero raises to $20 from btn with 9c6c trying to iso V1. V1 calls, V2 calls
Flop ($60) Kh9s2h
V1 checks, v2 checks, i check

I figure V1 is never folding flop,and id rather not set him up for another big bluff i cant reasonably call so weakly. Im basically figuring check down to showdown.

Turn 3d
V1 bets $35, v2 folds, hero calls

I dont think he bluffs this a lot, he was getting spazzy, but more with big bluffs, and before he got tilted, his bets were mostly bets when he has something. He could have the K, but Ill win a big pot if i hit a 9 or 6, and I can fold if he bets river too. He could also be value betting a random PP.

River ($130) Ah
V1 vigorously shakes his head, is clearly super unhappy with that card. makes an angry check and grabs his cards as if he is preparing to fold them. I am 100% certain that he does not have the flush, this isnt an act, ive seen him do this several times.

So basically the question is do I bluff the river with third pair to try and get a calling station to fold 2nd pair?

Not sure trying to iso V1 with 96s is a great idea given he's a calling station. When I raise 96s here it's because I think I can run over people. I'd just limp in this spot.

If you don't think he bluffs then turn call is slightly questionable because two of your outs also complete the flush, which will cut down your implied odds a bit.

River is close but I think I'd check. You don't rep anything really, you're saying you made a flush but that would involve not cbetting K92 with a FD (edit: you could also have A9 I guess, that's one hand you do rep). Whether he's capable of thinking in those terms idk but the alternative is "GRRRRR SO ANGRY. HE CANT HAVE IT EVERY TIME. I CALL". By which I mean, if he can't hand read he's probably going to call and if he can he's probably going to call.

I don't know...how much of a calling station is he exactly?

As I understand it you probably have no showdown equity. Villain likely has a K or possibly TT-QQ, but it seems clear he does not have the Ace, assuming his tells can be taken at face value.

If you bet X to win (X+130) you need a fold X/(X+130). Say X=80, you need a fold 80/210 or 38.1% of the time. Is he folding this often? Will the bet size affect how often he folds? Some villains will fold to a $40 bet almost as often. In that case you need 40/170 or 23.5% of the time. Some stations may call both of these bets without the Ace but very rarely if you overbet the pot, say to $150. In that case, you need a fold 150/280 or 53.6% of the time.

I'd probably bet closer to $40 if I think villain is capable of folding 2nd pair sometimes as it only needs to work like a quarter of the time. If villain is incapable of folding to that amount I'm seriously considering betting around $150 because all but the worst calling stations are typically folding to an overbet there. You look strong, like you spiked the Ace, possibly a flush, rather than like you're taking a random stab at the pot, and villain seems very aware he could be beat. Since you raised pre-flop he might reasonably put you on an Ace and fold, or he might put you on a flush draw that got there and fold.

I think I'm almost always betting this river but bet amount depends on how capable villain is of folding when he thinks he's behind.

Thoughts on preflop: I would play ATC heads up IP vs this villan when we are this deepstacked. I would not be making this move against a calling station $300 deep.

WRT can he hand read? no, but he can read boards. Like, i dont think he puts a lot of consideration as to what my line was on previous streets, but probably just thinks "ace that completes flush just hit, therefore he either has A, flush, or bluff".

How much of a calling station isnt exactly something I know, because ive shown up with huge hands, I mean, maybe he had a bunch of 2 pairs that he mucked, but check call down for 3 streets is a regular line for him. But his playstyle has been changing, all in bluffs and whatnot. I saw this intense reaction once before ans he folded, but it was multiway and a smaller pot.

I think i have showdown equity, but i expect he wont rebluff me with worse

results:

Just check going with your air read on turn. If he's a call station, I would bet for value but there's not much worse to call you.

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Grunch.

I love ISOing V if he's weak tight or if we have a hand that can make a decent pair and we can vbet a calling station (like A8o).

The problem with ISOing 96s is that either we'll flop something like 2P+, in which case we probably don't mind some more callers and a really high SPR, or we'll flop something like marginal pair no kicker and wish the calling station would fold.

I'd just flat and figure V's stationy tendencies elevate a normal fold to a marginal call.

I'd bet the flop, especially if V1 is never folding. On the one hand, I'd like V2 out of the hand and on the other, if V1 will call with 100% of his range, we're ahead and it's a value bet. Also, we keep V1 acting normally and don't have to worry about whether we induced another spazz bluff on the turn if we check. I'd make it around $35. I want V1 to call with everything and I don't want to lose too much if either V has actually managed to get a hand.

OTT, I'd normally fold when a calling station leads out. I have to think he's ahead here and you're chasing at most 5 outs and maybe only 2 or 3.

OTR if you think the tells are reliable, yeah, put out a bet and expect him to fold. Make the bet whatever size you think he's expecting so that nothing tickles whatever little "think about it" he's got. I'd make it $90.

One of the big problems I have with this bluff is that you don't credibly represent a flush here. Most players would bet their flush draws on the flop. It's possible that you check back some of these draws but most players don't realize that.

Anyways, I'm not really understanding your logic for checking flop. You said V1 won't fold flop...so why aren't you betting it for value?

lol he called and mucked? looooolll

nailed it

I dont think this villan would even remember the flop action. I think representing a hand matters to varying degrees against ayone who is some sort of reg, but doesnt really matter for the fish.

I check back middle pairs a lot, especially on boards like this, T J Q A arent great, but most turn cards are fine, and i can just make a turn bet instead, or get a free showdown. I considered betting based on villan, but just took a more standard line that i take.

yeah, you nailed it. My mind was so blown when he mucked.

I don't think a rec player is going to think through the hand critically but still think this might feel a little off to them and calling stations are just looking for a reason to call.

Probably had a low pocket pair or maybe even a 3, figured he was sometimes good because you checked the flop, plus you just called his turn "probe bet," so he decided this added up to enough that you were just bluffing the river with air.

Very bad thought process, but I expect even fish have some kind of thought process about a hand that makes sense to them. More than "GRRR. Ace. I has pair tho. CALL."

I suck at deepstack (possibly because I haven't figured out how to hit 6 sets in a single session when playing laggy).

With deep stacks at the table and a few limpers, I can't even wrap my head around how preflop is ever going to manage to isolate anyone especially with an aggro image especially for just $20. I'm also not convinced we want to isolate anyone with 9 high. I would either overlimp or fold.

3ways I think I lean more towards cbetting this because I'm not convinced V1 is going to bluff as much with V2 also in the hand. However, if he check/raises a lotta flops then I'm totally fine with checking back and trying to get to showdown.

Turn looks fine given flop.

I think our hand is too strong to turn into a bluff (and too weak to bet). He's also tilting (i.e. calling frequency goes way up). I showdown.

ETA: Agree with others that our line also makes zero sense. We'd typically cbet a flush draw or A high, and would likely not call a turn bet with A high; do we ever really show up with A/flush here to anyone who can remotely hand read? And he's a tilting calling station on top of all that (does he even have a fold button?).

GcluelessNLnoobG

So just a thought on "what we are repping", yeah i didnt think i was repping a FD or an A on the river, but clearly villan thinks we are repping an A or FD, or he wouldnt have reacted so viscerally to the river. I had not even thought about bluffing river until his tell.

Might just be me, but I give like 0% weight to tells.

Gok,maybe1%,butprettymuchanonbelieverG

Then I bet you dont bluff much. Disinterested/disgusted tells are by far the most reliable. Ive always been kind of bluff happy from a "feel", and didnt even really realize i was relying on tells until i started playing far more regularly over the last year and a half.

It only needs to make sense to the fish. A lot of passive fish would play QJ, QT, and JT exactly like this, and possibly T9, 98, 97, as well as random Aces like A9, A2, and A3, perhaps as weak as AQ. If he's incapable of folding ever I'm not bluffing here (but in that case we can evidently value bet!) but against somewhat stationy opponents it's a good bluff spot.

Also I think this tell is fairly reliable, though interpreting what disappointment means to the fish is tricky. I mean he could have something like A2 and just be disappointed the river was the A

Pre-flop is really, really, bad.

Flop is good. I don't normally turn decent sdv into bluffs on the river but in this case you can prob justify it with the tells.

Well, in general, I think that is actually a fairly solid rule at a game where the majority of our profit comes from value bets. But obviously very opponent / board runout dependent.

Yeah, you'll see a lot of disinterested/disgusted signs, just as you did here. And just as you did here, more often than not you'll hear "I know I'm beat. I call."

GcluelessNLnoobG

In general, I'm mostly narrowing my bluffs to opponents who (a) are very aware of my nit image, (b) can read a board/hand (and I can rep a credible story) and (c) have a fold button. As soon as we put someone in the fish category most of these requirements go out the window, so in general I think bluffing is lighting money on fire. This hand is a really good example of that (especially since our bluff ends up being a lol value bet).

GimoG


This is another reason I put no faith in them. I mean, he could easily have a set of 99 / another strong hand and is simply disappointed that the flush got there. But he's never ever folding.

GcluelessNLnoobG

(deleted) *somehow responded in wrong thread*

yeah this is true, good analysis. although if he is folding the K here, I can take the hit from A2 and still come out woth a profitible bluff. It was marginal though, I wasnt sure whether he would fold the K. I probably wouldve checked if i had considered A2 shading the odds a bit further towards a check back.

I think you severely underestimate the value of fold equity. You dont even need half your bluffs to work to profit, and thats ignoring the bonus money you get off of getting your value bets called by shaking that nit image. There is a lot of money to be had at low stakes with bluffs, especially on the river.

Fold pre. Fold turn check river.

I know, I get this, and I still recall bip! making a very good point along the very same lines that really helped clue me in to this fact.

But you still have to pick your spots. This isn't one of them, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Well, I generally am picking my spots where i DONT bluff. In this case, the Ah is the best possible bluff card against a K, so its a card you should almost always be
bluffing. I wouldnt have even posted this hand if i had air on the river, I wouldve bet river without reservation knowing that fish will call with their 1 pair hand some percentage of the time which is less than the requisite percentage to avoid my bluff. Of course after the results of this hand, i did not bluff him again for the rest of the session, because i was given a reaosn not to ever bluff him.