1/3 effective 600.
HJ good thinking LAG opens to 10. Hero Tag image BUT A5hh calls.
HU
(24) Flop J55dsc
HJ bets 10 Hero calls.
(44) Turn Ad
HJ bets 30. Hero?

How often has this guy been raising PF? The $10 raise means weakness to me, at least from most players. What sizing does Villain normally use?

AP, I think I call. Smells like a C-Bet that's hit on the turn, but a raise here looks like a 5 since that A does hit his range more. Also he might have turned a diamond draw. Let him keep firing on the river, and raise there. You're not getting stacks in, so this seems like the best line.

3bet pre

His open raise size is his standard, he’s been opening between 8-10

I would rather 3bet a hand like 97s or 56s as a bluff, and stronger hands for value. And this deep like a suited ace in position cause we can make a nut flush deep stacked in position

The biggest reason I see to 3bet here would be if we expected a high 4! Frequency and wanted to balance out a 5bet range with this as a bluff... but I don’t expect to see a lot of 4! Bluffs

unless you are planning on floating a lot of flops calling pre here is a losing play because you are giving up initiative and are going to constantly whiff. plus by 3 betting you have the opportunity to win money rake free which is huge.

maybe you and i play differently, but unless i have QQ-AA i usually start with the assumption that I will flop nothing and will need initiative and aggression to win the pot.

against this V, calling with a5 suited pre on the button is perfectly fine

ace will be good against him more than other V and we also have wheel possibility, and of course nut flush possibility

plus hero can still bluff flop against the thinking lag in the right spots

call now for sure, dont really see any other play

3b pre

Pre is whatever as long as you don't fold
You've got to raise somewhere 600 deep

Now if I'm a

That 30 I bet on the turn is the last you get from me, cause if you really have a TAG image, and you just called preflop, and you just call the flop, well, I'm not continuing lessen I can beat 3 5s.

BUT, if you 3 bet pre.....

3bet or flat pre is fine, flatting/3betting become better depending on the blinds.

raise flop, raise turn

Calling & 3betting pre should yield a very similar EV. I would say your entire understanding & outlook on 3betting likely need some re working as per your response above.

As played: call turn with intentions to raise any river. The two of you have equal amount of board coverage as he has AA/JJ + some 5x as well, where as the best hand you have is the exact one your holding (excluding 55).


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Preflop is whatever. We're getting an awesome price and will be in position, plus don't even hate the blinds coming along. On the other hand our opponent is a good thinking opponent.

I guess I can't hate the flop call. If he's a good lag he's mostly going to get out of the hand when a taggish player raises and that will prevent him from barrelling his air. Still, in general we probably mostly want to build a pot at this point and the best way to do that is by raising the flop.

Kinda interesting turn spot, imo. This is a decent card to continue barrelling air and a flat will keep that air barrelling the river. So if we think we're up against air a lot of the time, flatting might be best. However, if he actually has a hand like AJ or 5x we want to be building a pot. How would he react with a naked Ax; is he ever bet/folding that? And then of course we always have to consider the times we are beat. If we end up getting in $600 against a good thinking opponent, how often are we actually best on this board? I guess enough of the time against a worse 5x?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Hero calls.
(104) Riv Jx
V checks. Hero?

Gross river. I can't fault a x back vs a good thinking LAG here. We are only really charging Ax that don't believe us when we value bet this river and if we get x/r it's really sick. I like thin value but I'm not sure I can pull the trigger on this one.

Check backs seems a little weak imo given that we have the range advantage and it’s very possible that v could play AX this way

Kinda my thinking too, but then I also think that if we don't think we're capable of betting for value here (and making the correct hero fold when check/raised) then preflop becomes somewhat more questionable.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Welllllll this is a pretty unlikely river to be fair

My guess is that 80% of the the time this riv bricks, he bets, I raise, he folds. Cool cool cool

Hmmm, it's close. We have more Jx but V has more 5x in general. And given no 3 bet pre we probably have about the same amount of Ax. I noted we are narrowly targeting Ax which I would be more comfortable with Vs a weak player but you described V as both "good" and "thinking" which gives me pause. This type of V may x/r Ax or worse knowing that they can rep the 5 or the J. Value ranges are really compressed here. I would also expect V to check a lot of his Jx here. A check back does feel week and the flop sizing does seem small for Jx. I just feel like this V does more folding and x/r than x/c here.

ETA: Actually vs a LAG open range we might not have more Jx either lol. What's his raising range? I would think that a LAG in the HJ has as much Jx as our TAG BUT call.

I’m not sure the answer to your question but note that simply having more combos of JX in his opening range doesn’t mean he has more jacks than us!

What matters (as always) is the ratio. For example if he opens 1000 combos, and 100 of them have a jack, then he has 10% of his opening range has a jack.

If we call button with 200 combos, then we only need 20 JX combos to reach that same 10%

Now in this particular spot... would he bet 30 on the turn with JT? I have my doubts. But would we call turn with the JT? I think it’s much more likely

Point taken. I guess it depends on the V. Many good thinking LAGs in my games will double barrel the turn scare card Ace with Jx or even a decent pocket pair or diamond draw. You have a better read on V than I do though. I would imagine that some of our Ax will fold flop as there is no flush draw and the board is paired. If we had two overs AK, AQ we would have 3 bet pre so are we really floating AT- on this flop? I have my doubts as well.

Call turn. Weird spot on Riv, but just bet 65. He's prob not cool enough to check a Jack often enough not to try and force him to cry call with whatever he has as if you're trying to chop block or something. Nut low runout lol.

Given the descript, more likely to 3b pre.

Flop - ok.

Turn - $75/call obv.

River - $45/fold. Targeting AQ+ which sized down on dry flop, up on money card turn.