Villain (UTG): 30 ish white guy, had opened UTG with KJo (covers)
Hero (SB): late 20s Asian, TAG image ($400)

Villain limps, another player limps, fish on BTN limps. Hero looks down at KQ and raises to $23 from the SB. Villain and BTN call.

Flop: K85 ($74)

Hero bets $40. Villain raises to $115. BTN folds and hero calls.

Turn: T ($304)

Hero checks. Villain snap shoves for around $270.

The traditional advice is 1/3 villains usually don't put in big bluffs. I also have the Q which blocks some of his flush draws. But what value is he repping here? Someone who opened KJo UTG will surely be raising 88 and probably 55 too instead of limping. Only hands that make sense are two pairs but really limp calling K8s/K5s/85s from UTG? Anyone folding?

With two passive players left to act it's possible he called PF thinking the pot on flop could be ~90 with the other calls. That didn't happen, but it does widen his range to KT, K8, T8 for sure that we're behind plus lots of combo draws that we're ahead for now.

Eager to see other responses because as played I'm folding, and I'm not even sure how much I love our hand on the flop either tbh

I fold here. I think even though he raises KJo UTG he could limp with pocket pairs. I've seen this lots in 1/3 games.

Also, idk if I like raising KQo in the SB and playing OOP. Sure you have a range advantage but idk.

The pf raise is fine. Fold to the raise on the flop. Yes the board is dry. Fold anyway, it’s just TPMK. From a limping villain all of those weird 2-pair combos and sets are in his range, as well as AK.

Fold flop. AP, Baluga Theorem definitely applies. We don't even have TK and V raised flop and shoved turn? I'd eed some serious spewiness reads before I'd even consider a call here.

Baluga Theorem is for turn raises isn't it? As for flop, surely we can't bet fold TPGK to a single raise especially from a guy who raised KJo UTG and therefore probably spews quite a bit. How many combos of value vs bluffs are you guys putting him on when you're saying fold every made hand on the flop except AK/88 and KK (assuming we cbet that)?

I think flop raise and turn shove is basically equivalent to a big turn raise.

I also don't think that opening a two Broadway hand OOP tells us anything about his post flop play except that he's apparently not very aware of the importance of position. It doesn't make me think that he's generally spewy. It *might* mean that he generally overvalues hands, but I don't think it's a strong read of that.

Meanwhile, you raised huge from the SB, and he's firing away on a K high flop, not worried about you having a big PP or AK. And his flop raise was too small for most Vs semi-bluffing. His range is very strong here, and you are near the bottom of yours.

The shallower we are and the more ABC our opponents are, the more I'm cool with raising preflop and creating a bloated pot. Here (deeper, likely against a non-ABC villain, OOP), the more I just see a cheap flop.

If we don't feel comfortable folding to a flop raise, then I wouldn't bet (very similar to my preflop thinking, imo). If betting, I believe we have to fold to the raise.

Overall, I just think we're mostly making a mistake by offering decent 18+ IO odds OOP to opponents if we're looking to stack off postflop most times we flop TP.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Raise pre was because I'm probably well ahead of everyone's range and would rather play a lower SPR pot with less villains. As for stacking off or not post, really depends on flop. KJ9 is way different from K85. But if we're bet/folding KQ to a flop raise I'm curious what we should be continuing with.

In my experience, "30 ish white guy" doesn't raise flop and shove turn with air often. I think about folding flop, and definitely fold turn. He can have all combos of 88 and 55, maybe K8s, and I don't think is bluffing *often enough* to make a call profitable.

Villain's range includes a lot of KsXs, 6s7s, 55, 88, and the three combos of 58s.

On the flop, you're ahead of KsXs and 6s7s, but both hands have a ton of equity against you (11 outs and 14 outs). On the turn, he's either trying to maximize fold equity with those hands you beat or he's trying to get you to donk off your stack with AK (which is the hand you are loudly representing).

I think you need waaaaaay more detailed postflop reads to make this call on the flop. Your hand looks like AK and he's raising you anyway. He's also going to have position for the rest of the hand, and there are a ton of scary turn and river cards for your hand.

As played, seems like a pretty easy fold on the turn.

pre, i might just limp here.

AP, he can have sets, combo spade draws (KsXs is also a possibility), dubs to raise flop and shove turn. i doubt a naked flush or OESD will do this line..

I will call flop but now fold turn.

OK so what you guys are saying is literally fold everything but 88 on the turn cause I'm probably not cbetting KK on the flop.

I'd fold flop (exploitatively obv) barring some read that he plays draws aggressively regardless of board and action. Calling flop to fold on blank turns seems like lighting money on fire since a raise flop/check back blank turn line is pretty rare in this spot imo.

This is not nearly enough of a good reason to bloat a pot with KQo OOP. Preflop is where your error came....the rest is just compounding.

AP, fold. What do you really think you beat that V plays this way (raise your c-bet, shove turn)? If you call, it is pure spew regardless of result.

Barring better reads, yes!

Most LLSNL players don't raise nearly enough. When they are raising, they either have 2 pair+ or a great combo draw.

Folding everything but 88 is exploitable as hell. But that's fine, because most player pools at 1/3 aren't creative enough to exploit it.

Bet/fold, bet/fold, bet/fold until a player gives you reason to believe he has a wider raising range. If he's given you reason to believe that, you haven' t told us about it.

Villain's range includes sets and a slew of flush or combo draws. We are ahead of the majority of hands he is holding.

Not folding this flop with this board versus this villain. Turn is a brick, so no reason to change course now.

Folding everything but 88 on the turn is awful.

This is by no means a slam dunk snap call, but I call expecting to be ahead more often than not.

Results?