$1/3 full table. One hour in. Hero has not played a hand with Villain.

Hero: Probably a TAG image. I have opened mostly in position. I haven't played a hand to river yet or shown any cards. I've been fairly active targeting the 3-4 weak players.

Villain: Competent TAG player and likely grinder. He has almost exclusively opened in position and only overlimped once in LP. He has cbet the flop 100% of the time.

Relevant HH:
- V checked down the turn/river twice when his overcards missed the flop.
- V continued betting once on the turn and his opponent folded.
- V fired three bullets when he flopped a set.
- V raised a donk bet on the turn and tank folded to a reraise shove on a K-high disconnected rainbow board. I suspect he had AK or AA and correctly folded. His weak-tight villain only has a set.

OTTH

Villain (MP): covers
Hero (BTN): $350

V opens $15, Hero calls with 77, weak-tight BB calls

Note: As the dealer prepared to show the flop, I looked over at villain to watch his reaction. He was already staring at me. We somewhat awkwardly had a stare down for a few seconds before he finally looked at the flop once the action was on him.

Flop ($45): 642
BB checks, V bets $30, H calls, BB folds

Turn ($105): 2
V bets $75, Hero?

Meh.

Fold probably.
TT is an interesting hand here. Prolly call with TT+.

I'd fold based on the HH. Not enough spacing between our hand and TP on board.

TT+, I'd 3b pre.

Tricky... he's repping a bigger PP. The only hands in your range that could beat that would be 66 and 44. It'd be worth a call if you think he'd slow down on the river. But the river will likely be an overcard and he'll likely bet again and put you to a really hard decision. The only other play is to raise turn repping the FH - and that'd be a little too high variance for my taste.

Reluctantly fold.

I play it the same as you. The turn bet is large and you likely will face a big river bet as well.

Wait for a better spot.

Yeah, I folded. What's the highest amount that is worth a call? $50? $40?

I agree TT is about the threshold for calling a $75 bet.

There are three choices, not two.

With your call there will be 250 in the pot with 225 behind.

Put it in.

V is a grinder, so he has a fold button.

Flat pre, call flop, shove turn says either a huge bluff or a monster. LLSNL V's almost never run big bluffs like this.

V has no history with you bluffing.

There's always a chance V takes a stand, but if you're an unknown, I bet this is going to be a b/f even if he does have an overpair. Obviously if he has AK, he's dropping it in a heartbeat.

I'd rather turn our hand into a bluff than turn it into a fold.

do we really want to call this flop if we are almost always folding to a second bet (and there are a bunch of horrible cards for us)

it doesn't sound like OP expects villain to stop betting

if that's the case is raising the flop a stronger line?

or will continued analysis of this hand lead to the conclusion that we should just fold pre-flop based on our stack size and the 5x raise

I'm also calling preflop. This might encourage the blinds to call where we can more profitably setmine (as setmining against Villain might not be profitable). And if it ends up HU, we don't necessarily have to be setmining against this guy in position.

3ways is a little inbetween, one where Villain could easily cbet (instead of perhaps toning down cbetting on a more multiway flop). I sometimes perhaps give up a bit too easily here and just fold now, for fear of facing another bet on the turn UI.

By the turn, Villain is obviously either attempting to value bet us to death or attempting to perhaps triple barrel us off our weak pair (which it kinda looks like we have right now). This is sometimes why I like to make my fold decisions early in the hand than later.

GcluelessNLnoobG

But what are we repping when we do this? A fullhouse? Is this how we'd play a fullhouse in position?

GnotsureVillainisgoingtobuythisstory,imoG

Fair point. Here's my thinking. Happy to see where it might be wrong.

• I gave V a range of A8s+ ATo+, 88+, KQo+, QJs, KJs. I assumed he cbet 100%. That's 138 combos, of which 96 (70%) are unpaired overcards. We need him to fold 63% to break even, neglecting our chance to suck out if called. I agree V might not choose to double barrel with his entire range, so we very likely need him to fold some pairs.
  
  
• I actually think many LLSNL players would flat a flopped set here. When V bet again, they might well choose to raise it -- either to allow more room to gii or just because they figure they should now raise with the full house. (It doesn't matter whether we would play this way or not, only what V thinks the general LLSNL population that fits our stereotype and demeanor might do.)
  
  
• V has no solid reads on us. All he's seen is that we're active and haven't gotten to showdown. He's flying fairly blind here. My guess is that grinders are generally unwilling to snap off a bluff this big without a pretty good idea their opponent is bluffy.
  
  
• No BD draws came on the turn, so V will probably believe this is either a complete bluff or a boat (with maybe a few fudge factor deuces in the mix). But he has to be correct nearly half the time that he snaps us off.
  
  
• I kinda expect to get called by at least QQ+. I think there is enough air and laydowns (perhaps 88 and 99) in V's range that a bluff is profitable. Part of this is taking advantage of the cover provided by the rest of the LLSNL herd, which has V's not thinking in terms off snapping off big bluffs.
  
  
• Mostly -- and I think this is true at LLSNL in general -- it's not about telling a great story (though it certainly helps if there's a plausible one around). He started OOP with (let's say) AA and an SPR of 12. Yuck. He plowed on, betting the flop and the turn and is now facing a big decision. It could, conceivably be a bluff, but -- really -- how often at LLSNL does that happen on a dry board?
  
  
• Lastly, I think many grinders have distilled beating LLSNL down to something like "Play only good hands pre; bet into passivity; fold if raised" That's a great way to play against the herd. It's a terrible way to play someone that very occasionally reverses the herd's tendencies.

tl;dr I think this is a great spot to find V with a lot of air in his range; with a tendency to fold to unusual aggression; with a bad position/SPR situation; and facing play that is unlikely to be a bluff.

Folding

Given OPs so-far reads, this looks to be a straightforward value bet, sized perfectly vs heros cont range, on the safest turn in the deck. Perhaps he has other hands, but I'm not stacking off facing a seems-to-be tight reg OOP PFR bet bet on a low ranked paired board.

As for raising, the thoughts are ok, but not on this turn with this hand with this little behind. I won't get too deep into it, but it would be pretty easy to argue that heros entire range on this turn should have zero raises under any circumstances.

If villain C-Bets 100% of the time, I min raise the flop and see what he does.

OP doesn't say which position the V raised from pre, but I think its possible he has 66, 44, 22 in his range here as well. This is 10 more combos to add in OP's range where he is calling.

I think this bluff attempt is -EV. Only the most aggressive grinders (top 10% or less of player pool) are double barreling OOP here. Most TAGS give up after the flop c-bet. This turn bet is strongly weighted toward overpairs.

This guy already tanked and made a big laydown less than an hour ago. I really don't think he is in the mood to fold again after he has invested $120 in this pot already and only needs to call $225 more with what is likely an overpair. He is going to be much less likely to fold to hero if he hero has a young guy, grinder image himself.

V is in MP, but yeah, it's not specified beyond that. Agreed if there are small PP in his range, those are obviously stacking us and make a bluff shove less valuable.

I agree the turn is weighted towards overpairs.

But here's I think the crux of why I'm advocating a different line than others: I think a grinder folds his overpair here, perhaps feeling suspicious and certainly not liking it, but believing that the odds V is shove bluffing at LLSNL to be way less than 50%. I believe that bet/folds are an integral part of being a TAG grinder.

I'd like to explore this question a little more. Not because I can't be wrong -- I clearly can be -- but because I think finding spots like this are a huge advantage over the rest of the LLSNL field. And, with an eye toward the future, as the LLSNL field continues to learn more, finding ways to defeat TAG-like play will be very useful.

Also, I think I've been over-aggressive in the past and fine-tuning that would be good.

So, if I may, let me continue...

Let's say this was presented from the other side, with hero and V reversed:

V OTB (350) seems tight and perhaps positionally aware, but appears to be loose (opening 3 - 4 hands per orbit). Hasn't played a hand to the river yet, so haven't seen any cards.

H MP (covers)
Relevant previous hands:
- checked down the turn/river twice when my overcards missed the flop.
- continued betting once on the turn and opponent folded.
- fired three bullets when flopped a set.
- raised a donk bet on the turn and tank folded to a reraise shove by weak-tight V on a K-high disconnected rainbow board. (V very likely has a set here.)

H is dealt JJ in MP and opens to 15. V calls OTB, weak tight BB calls.

Turn (45) 6 4 2

H leads 30, V calls, BB folds

Turn (105) 2
H leads 75, V shoves for 225 into 250 pot, H?

Is V bluffing ~50% here?


Are we, the forum jury, pretty much coming down on the side of "yeah, V is very unlikely to have a set here; call it off"?

Appreciate the comments -- especially any that might highlight some errors in my thinking or aspects of this I'm missing.

^^^^

Yeah, in most cases if I'm Villain betting the turn with an overpair, I'm *typically* doing it to bet/fold. However, in this case, the story just isn't making much sense. Tight Button called preflop with 53? Somehow saw a flop/turn with 2x? Flopped a set (ok, makes sense) but then shoves a pretty dry board with a fullhouse in position? In fact, the only hand that is beating us that really makes sense is AA (perhaps KK).

Hard to say exactly what I'd do as Villain in this spot with an overpair (I'd actually consider checking the turn, to be honest). But I *think* I'd consider calling a shove here if I bet, although admittedly I don't feel good about it. Do I fold enough of the time to make the shove by Button profitable? Perhaps.

GcluelessNLnoobG