Hero is early 30s WG, seen by the table as LAG. Image should be competent, but winning/losing has been very swingy. Table saw Hero stack a guy for 100 bbs flopping a set, then losing a lot of it back GII with JJ against TT on a low flop, where TT hit runner runner straight. Hero has been caught bluffing once on the river where Hero declared "one pair" (which was like 4th pair I'd turned into a bluff on a 4-straight, 3-flush river), and the opponent begrudgingly showed TPWK and Hero mucked.

V is MAWG, drinking, splashy. Calls raises OOP way too wide. Plays aggro in spots that make no sense. Examples include:

HH1: Button straddle is on, Hero on button with J4ss. Villain limps UTG, 2 other limpers, Hero checks option. Flop JT5r. Villain leads $25 into $30, Hero flats, all others fold. Turn J bringing backdoor FD, Villain bets $50, Hero flats. River 4, Villain bets $100, Hero jams $250ish more, V flashes T8 or T9 and folds.

HH2: V limps UTG, 2 other limpers, Hero raises red 44 to $20. Only V calls. Flop JTx two tone, Villain donks $50, Hero folds, Villain shows JThh.

OTTH

Button straddle is on, Hero on button with 7 6. Effective stacks ~$400.

BB limps, V limps, 2 other limpers, Hero checks option.

Flop ($30): 9 T K

Checks around.

Turn ($30): 8

BB checks, Villain leads $40. It's not uncommon for him to overbet a limped pot. Folds to hero, who raises to $155. Villain calls fairly quickly. I range V on almost any two pair, flush draws, J7, 67. I don't think he would play QJ this way as I would expect him to bet flop with it, but I'm not removing all QJ combos from his range.

River ($340) T

Villain checks.

This might be the worst river in the deck for us. Obviously if V was ahead on the turn with a higher straight he is still ahead. His naked flush draws won't pay off a river bet. His two pair hands on the turn either improved to a boat or got counterfeited and seem unlikely to call.

Are we value betting this river or checking behind? If we bet, what sizing?

Just check. V isn't folding better hands imo

Bet 155 again and get called by a K or T. If he jams, I guess you fold.

I wouldn't straddle.

I also just see a flop.

I also let the flop check around.

I have a don't go-broke-in-a-limped-pot mentality, plus I'm pretty cool with this guy barrelling a lol hand (like he did HH1), so I lean towards calling the turn. This admittedly might be pretty meh and I'm missing value here, especially with your image (which admittedly isn't mine).

Yeah, this is kinda a nut low river card. I kinda like the check behind, but again this is probably in line with my overall passive / MUBSy / missing value line (especially in a multiway limped pot), and not necessarily best. We certainly miss value from parts of his range such as JT/QT/T7.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think I go for thin value here. No way V doesnt shove turn if he holds QJ so I rule that out. Also, he called "fairly quickly" meaning he gave very little thought to raising so I put most of his range on FD's and pairs+FD's.

Hopefully, he holds something like AT and he pays you off.

I would bet $100 and likely call a shove.

Yeah, I missed Txdd hands too.

The gross thing is that we just barely have a 3/4 PSB left. In smaller pots (where money can fly around faster) I think this would just have to be a shove and live with results. With this bigger pot (and bigger money not flying around as loosely) can we get away with a sick bet/fold of like $100 even though our calling odds would be tremendous? And if we've decided we are calling a shove, does that mean we should just shove ourselves?

Ginteresting,imoG

This is why you got whacked by the Corleone family. You just don't know when to quit.

shove

gii, betting less seems silly.

but we're not bluffing

But we are turning our hand into a bluff. Is villain calling with a missed fd. Imo the only thing V maybe calls with that were beating is Tx's. I think we own ourselves too often betting this river. Not the situation for a range merge/ thin value imo.

we are not turning our hand into a bluff.

How so? We're specifically betting this river to get value from QT,AT's. KT's beats us. So if were not turning our hand into a bluff because there's like 2 combos we beat that make sense and might call?

What exactly are we doing?

Villain could also have some offsuit JT/QT/T7 (i.e. pair + straight draw on turn that made trips).

Genoughhandstogetvaluefrom?G

I might bet $125-150 on the river to get paid light or induce a bluff thinking the 10 is a scare card. Very few of my V’s check river with a hand you’rre Behind. If he shoves, I call and feel pretty good, even knowing occasionally i’m Beat.

I don't see why you're scared at all once he checks it over to you. The only real question is that if he made a FH on the river is he the type of guy who is going to check it over? If he had the nut straight on the turn would he not just shove all in on you? I don't really think it's likely at all that you're beat here.

Would he call with a King? Maybe. Given SPR I think you just shove it here. I don't usually deal in absolutes but bet/folding in this spot is mind numbingly bad.

Results:

Hero chickened out and checked. V showed AK. I didn't have that in his range OTT in the slightest, but I think he would've called at least a smaller value bet, if not a shove.

I also agree with posters ITT that Villain has enough Tx hands OTT such as JT, QT, T7 etc. that will pay off a river bet. In hindsight I'm still wondering whether sizing down the river or shoving makes more sense against that range (considering his range still includes hands we lose to)

i am fine with the checkback on the river. i think in most cases its the best play.

maybe due to this specific villain you coulda got some more value but i still like the chk

good thought process op

When in doubt, you have to value bet in these games. Players love to call and there is no way to put them on a range that excludes all sorts of weird hands.

Bet smaller since you want 1 pair hands to look you up.

I'd just like to know what hands v has that beats us that didn't jam turn or bet river?

Bet/fold $110 on the river for thin value against Kx and Tx hands.

When in doubt, always keep a bet/fold mentality at these stakes.

Jam river please - Pot is already $300~ and no one is checking as a trap here. Any player with a boat should just lead this river AI and is never checking. HE also wouldn't slow play QJ as there are diamonds on the turn. People rarely slow play vulnerable made hands in LLSNL.


You don't even have a pot sized bet left and he never has a boat - why would you check?

Easy shove for value