Turn 6h ($196)
Villain has $120 left and I have a ton of equity. Shove in to see if he finds some folds?
I think this is shove or x/f. I don't have odds to straight up call if he shoves (38% BE, against pairs or trips I have about 24%-30%). If I shove first my hand can look pretty nutted.
its ok i guess, maybe he folds some under pairs which is good for us. pots bigger than his stack already.
people play paired boards kind of differently some people play them really aggressively (phil ivey style), some people play them very passively unless they have it and some people are somewhere in the middle. so if you knew which camp he falls into that would be helpful, but it takes a lot of time to figure that out.
I think LJ is too early to be getting too out-of-line, although against deepstacks it doesn't matter quite as much (since we'll still have so much postflop play left, albeit often OOP, and in this case unfortunately to the shortstack).
I'm fine with our cbet semi-bluff although I more tend to size down since I doubt our bet size makes any difference on anyone's flop calling frequency. A smaller bet also is more likely to give us better odds to continue if we're raised. Calling the flop raise OOP on a paired board with smallish stacks behind (another reason preflop is mehish although I'm guessing we didn't expect to be up against this guy) is very dicey, imo.
Good luck trying to get someone who raised the flop to leave himself with a lol ~1/2 PSB left to fold.
If I were to shove, it'd be on the flop. The six gives you a few more outs (if he doesn't have a FH/quads), but I doubt you have much FE on turn -- nothing really changed, and he knows that. I guess w/ his being a post-aggressive nit and your image, a shove might work. I probably just check and hope for a free river.
In general I think our FE plummets (virtually to NIL) as soon as we face a flop raise that leaves about a lol ~1/2 PSB left, which is why I wouldn't consider shoving the flop.
Pretty messy post. Bet smaller than 30 otf, what does that size accomplish? Also, don't just call his raise, elect to shove/fold flop.
AP, you only need 28% to check call which you likely don't have, but it's close assuming he is mostly Tx/no boats/a couple of OP hands/draws perhaps - and never checking back turn. So, if you're going to check-call, just go ahead and shove and maybe make up the difference with him making some horrible fold. If you're going to check-fold turn, then go back and don't bet-call flop. Really though, you're spewing off a stack to some guy just waiting for this spot. More than likely he wins, grabs racks, leaves.
Pretty messy post. Bet smaller than 30 otf, what does that size accomplish? Also, don't just call his raise, elect to shove/fold flop.
AP, you only need 28% to check call which you likely don't have, but it's close assuming he is mostly Tx/no boats/a couple of OP hands/draws perhaps - and never checking back turn. So, if you're going to check-call, just go ahead and shove and maybe make up the difference with him making some horrible fold. If you're going to check-fold turn, then go back and don't bet-call flop. Really though, you're spewing off a stack to some guy just waiting for this spot. More than likely he wins, grabs racks, leaves.