Want some opinions on this hand I played last night:

1/3, open J9ss in hijack to 12 and get I believe 3 callers, button and blinds.

Pot is about 50. Flop is Qs 8s 7d, so gutshot straight flush draw. Checks to me, I bet $30, villain on button calls.

Pot is about 110. Turn is 6d, so improve to open-ender. I bet $55, villain calls.

Pot is about 220. River is Kc, I've bricked out and have about $150 left. Should I go for the triple-barrel jam or just give up?

The way I see it...

Reasons to jam:
Have represented strength the whole way.
Kc is good for my range, I can have KK or KQ and play it like this, or have AKdd or AKss.
I can rep 10-9 suited, pretty much all sets, many two pair combos, so I'm uncapped outside of non-nut straights.
I block the nuts with the 9s.
The board is so draw-heavy on the turn I think most of villain's value raises turn.

Reasons to give up:
I block some of the draws I want opponent to have with J9ss, making it more likely he has value.
Not a great story to say that I have AK and am shoving top-top given the board and the way the hand has gone.
Opponent seems to be somewhat recreational and might just call with a queen or worse.

Any thoughts?

Seems like a good spot to triple. V should have a lot of higher FDs in his range that you'd hate to have him check back and then win with A-high. His range shouldn't have many Ks in it, though KQ is possible. If you'd topped up pre, I'd prefer a half pot bet to a shove. Just enough to get him to fold A-high or some draws with a small pair if he could have been playing those passively. As is, though, there's be so little left in your stack that it would just look suspicious if you bet $110 and left about $40 back. If you triple, it really will have to be a shove.

Really need some idea of your likely image to V and more info than "seems to be somewhat recreational" on V, though.

Had I topped up pre I would have had about 200 back on river. Is it significantly less suspicious to bet 110 and leave 90 back?

And yeah, I figure the hands I'm targeting are QJ, Q10, Q9, 98, 97, 96, A9, weak spaded aces that didn't pair or have a small pair, and maybe K9/AQ.

Villain I had never played with before. At the time the only information I had was that he was playing enough hands PF to make me think he was probably calling too loose (later confirmed when I saw him calling PF raises with A2o and other such raggy hands), had a gregarious, playful personality and seemed like a cool guy who was there to have fun, and this didn't seem like his first time playing or anything. And all this was based off less than an hour of playing with him, so I don't want to commit to any judgments based off of just that.

It is in my opinion. Looks like a calibrated value bet because you know he probably can't call a PSB.

In most cases....you have to go for it. You can easily rep a set, two pair like 87 suited, AA, KQ, AK of spades, or KT of spades. A good chunk of V's range is Qx and the nut flush draw. You can't beat either. Go all in. V likely would have raised the flop or the turn with 2 pair or a set on such a wet board.

But it would be nice to have a read on V.

It is definately an ok spot. Not great but villain will have some draw types hands that give up and maybe qx.

I'm with the crowd that says "DO IT" for the primary reason that V could easily have busted draws (or weak pair+draw hands) that can't call a river bet. You don't want to check this down and lose to A-high.

[QUOTE=fightingillini;55050505]In most cases....you have to go for it. You can easily rep a set, two pair like 87 suited, AA, KQ, AK of spades, or KT of spades. A good chunk of V's range is Qx and the nut flush draw. You can't beat either. Go all in. V likely would have raised the flop or the turn with 2 pair or a set on such a wet board.

But it would be nice to have a read on V.[/QUOTE

What do you think of H’s turn bet sizing. Given Board wetness, does it rep a blocker/downbet or uncapped strength?

I’m concerned it’s the former and this the jam just looks too suspicious. That said I feel the V is clearly capped to draws and weak Queens. That’s why the read is so crucial.

Alright, so at this point everyone I've talked to (this includes like 3 people not on here who I ask about this stuff) have told me that shoving is probably the right thing to do, so I feel confident in saying that's at least a reasonable conclusion. So, results:

I shove and get snapped by the nuts. 10-9 of diamonds, and V called turn instead of raising because he had the SF draw as well and didn't want to fold me out with a raise because of the high hand promotion, he wanted to make sure he had the chance of winning it by making the SF. And, obviously, since he has diamonds, he's not all that concerned about diamonds hitting the river, so a good chunk of the 'scare cards' aren't actually scary.

So, feelsbadman. But, after thinking it over and discussing it I think it was probably the right move and just happened to not work out. Thank you everyone.

I just open limp preflop because a raise is going to create exactly what happened here almost always: multiway (little FE postflop) and OOP (never good) in a bloated pot with J high.

I lean to checking the flop. We're just not going to take this down enough 4ways, imo. Meanwhile, few of our outs are nuttish, so we're not thrilled about building a pot either.

Turn is one of the reasons preflop is so meh. If we hadda ended up in position preflop we could have options here (such as taking a free card), but thanks to opening too early we're OOP and nullified that option. With all our equity I'm fine with a semi-bluff attempt here and I like our sizing (as any reasonable sizing will have little difference on FE but big difference on the odds we give ourselves).

I probably wouldn't be in this spot by the river but I don't mind emptying the clip on the river. J high is rarely going to win (even against a decent amount of busted draws) and we may get Qx off their hand (unless it's KQ, which we run into a decent amount of the time).

Gmeh,imoG