There are three possible hand types that BB has.
Ax hands.
Likely candidate for a weak player to call PF from the BB and then donk out. Bets from weak players mean strength, and this kind of hand fits the bill. Do need to take into account that we have three Aces out, already though.
Flush draws.
A weak player would totally call PF with a hand like K
J
and then donk a flop. But with the Q
in our hand, and the A
on the flop, that cuts out a lot of these combos.
Underpair
JJ-33. But I think that JJ-77 is the more likely range. I could totally see a weak player calling pre and then leading on a flop like this thinking that TT or something is good, as you can't possibly have three Aces right?
I think there is a chance that this player would check the first two hand types, to trap and draw cheap, although leading is also very plausible. But as we have blockers, I think this guys has the under pair and is testing the waters.
What do we do? Raising the first two types by $50 is okay, as they will still call. Then we can jam turn. I think the under pair will call raise then fold to a turn jam. Ditto flush draw. Ax calls the jam.
Just calling seems sucky. Let him draw for free? The most you can get is more value from the underpair, but it won't call a raise on the turn or river.
A bigger raise on the flop is too greedy and will scare off flush draws.
Raise to $75 on the flop, and then jam turn is the play.