1/3 400 cap.

V MP (450) - mid 20's asian. Strange LP style. Playing like 10/40 or something, but has limp called QQ from MP in a spot which was clearly gonna go very multiway. Generally passive post but is very comfortable putting chips in the middle, has no qualms calling big bets.

H CO (330) - mid 30s WG, ABC/TAG, been raising more than usual pre due to good starting hands in last hour, and raises have been big too due to frequent straddles and serial limpers. Have whiffed all flops so been check folding/cbet folding a lot, so have a bit of a spewy weak image.

OTTH

4 limps including V
H CO raise 30 AcQh
V calls 30

FLOP (60)
Qc10c10x
V bets 40
H call

Turn (140)
Qc10c10x5x
V bets 70
H call

River (280)
Qc10c10x5x6c
V check
Hero?

- I've seen him donk bet before but he got folds, so not sure what to make of it.
- I've been c-betting a reasonable amount, so I would kinda expect him to check a 10.
- As noted he does have the sick limp call with premiums move in his locker, so I can't rule out KK and AA but they have to be seriously discounted.
- At the time I thought he was blocker betting with one the many, many Qx hands he has here.
- He also has a lot of garbage FD combos possible, but does he donk donk with them?

I xb, passive villain gets frisky OTT but shuts down when the flush comes in. Seems like he has a lot of T in his range e.g. KTo/QTo/JTo/Txss. Guess he should have more Qx combos but also possibly weirdly played flushes.

I check it back. What worse is calling (maybe KQ or QJ?)? Do you think a T will fold?

WB & Java got this covered.

NH.

I've seen him make so pretty light/stationy calls before, so I think there's a good chance he calls KQ, QJ and maybe even Q rag.

Obvs I jammed, thinking was
- I have Ac so thats a bunch of FD combos he can't have, which further discounts weirdly played flushses
- He should have a little bit more Qx than 10x (LPs like Qrag suited but not so much 10rag suited). Plus I was discounting 10x a bit cause I thought he might c/r the flop with a 10 some of the time.
- I felt he'd have a hard time folding a Q.

Biggest problems with the above are that all the hands I lose to are calling for sure, but a bunch of the weak Q's might find a fold.

I might even go a little more preflop in order to get 10% of stacks in where we can feel more comfortable stacking off with TP. And if we take down 5.5bbs uncontested / unraked preflop, that's a fairly huge coup, imo.

One of the reasons I raise larger preflop is so that if I flop TP I can just move towards getting my stack in ASAP more comfortably. Even in this spot the SPR is 5 and board is somewhat drawy; you could argue that we should raise to commit on this flop, although paired boards are always a little weird in that too often we commit against trips.

I'm a little unclear on read. This guy is passive? Has he shown down any hands? Does he just bet his good hands and check/call mediocre ones / draws? Maybe a one and done bluffer / semi-bluffer, if that? We're probably identified as having air here a lot due to all our raise / cbet / folding. So against a more aggro player, I'm probably looking to commit ASAP. But against a more passive player, I could see just calling the flop and then giving serious consideration to folding the turn unless we think he thinks KQ is good or whatever.

As played, I probably check it back on the river. We're missing value against KQ/QJ but even those hands find a fold a decent amount of the time especially since the main draw game in.

GcluelessNLnoobG

From the previous hand you posted I know you're not scared to go forthin value but just don't think any exists here against this player. Need to check back on the river and get mad when V shows you KQ.

Thanks for the replies, seems pretty clear that this was a substantial step over the line separating good thin value from spew. Even typing it out it was pretty clear to me that I'd made some egregiously optimistic assumptions.

Villain snapped with 47cc fml.

GG, glad you mentioned raising to commit on the flop cause I think its a decent option. I considered it briefly but figured I'd just sort of end up all in vs his 10x, FDs, KQ and occasional OPs, whereas flatting lets him keep put me on AK/undepair and keep betting his Qx's.

Thanks again for replies, hopefully my posts can help give some insight into the minds of semi-thinking rec fish in your games

Donking a T is really unusual here. I expect him to have a worse Q or a FD like 90% of the time. So I'm raising the flop like 2.25x.

AP I'm raising turn.

AP I'm checking back river since FDs are a large part of standard donk bet lines. At this point we might not be able to get value from a hand like QJ either so I just see no reason to bet.

If river didn’t complete the flush then a shove is good. I just x it back there.

Not only do you block a lot of flush and straight draws but you also block some medium strength hands like worse queens A5/A6.Given how passive V is its less likely hes semi bluffing with a draw so on the flop im assuming hes either betting a strong hand or a medium strength hand you dont block like 22-jj,KK Tx. maybe a combo draw like KJs,K9s,J9s,J8s. If you think hes willing to try to bluff catch the river with an underpair go for bet fold if not just check behind. I would lean more towards checking.

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Grunch

I'd just check back river. We have decent showdown value, and I think it's very hard to get called by worse. I guess you could size way down and target worse Qx, but I think that's a very small portion of his range. His line is very strange to me, but I think the majority of his range is 10x, FDs, SDs. The straight draws bricked and won't call a bet, and the rest of his holdings have you beat. I'd be happy to table my hand here.

For me raising the flop all comes down to how committed we feel. The smaller the SPR and the more committed we feel, the more we should be raising; the larger the SPR and the less committed we feel, the more we should be flatting.

GimoG

Yeah I am all for squeezing as much thin value as I can overall, but the problem is you aren't deep enough to make any of his value range fold (so all T's, all flushes). Your shove gives him $470/$190 so like 2.5-1. Unless the guy is a nit, he isn't even folding hands as weak as T7 etc.

As GG pointed out, I think I raise this flop a good % of the time as well when IP. Just helps define a bit and lets you take control. Sure, you may get stacked occasionally by his Tx, but he has way more FD and Qx in his range so I think it worth the risk.