1-3 NL, full table.

Hero (~$300): Mid 20s white guy. Just table changed to this seat about two orbits ago. I don't think I had played any significant hands at this point. Raised OTB once and got folds around. Definitely haven't made to show down. Probably view as somewhat solid? Table really shouldn't have any reads.

V (~$260): Late 20s white dude. I have zero reads on him. He wasn't at his seat when I moved, showed up and played a few hands, left again, and this is his first hand back. The guy on my right made a comment when he left the last time that this guy has been back and forth from the table all night and some of the table is getting annoying. I don't know what he was doing when he left, I just assumed black jack or some other table game.

OTTH:

One or two limpers, here in HJ raises to $16 with KQ

V is in CO, posted his missed blinds for this hand, and he calls. Folds around and it's HU to the flop.

Flop (~$40) comes Q87

Hero leads $25, V raises to $75.

Hero??

With no reads, I call or fold. Does he look gambly or just average player type?

Since the board is so drawy and I don't know how he plays, I probably call and evaluate. Turn is so dependent on card and vibe you bet from V.

Lots of draws here, that makes this a tough spot....this is why being oop sucks, so Villan has ~170 behind....
Hate calling here
Jamming I can see merits to,
If we range villan we are mostly either way behind, 50% against combo draws, or nut flush, and then 35% ish against random draws.....
Not much out there we are doing well against
If it's me, I hate it but I probably fold and wait for a better spot, it feels so weak though that I probably go take a walk because I find this sort of thing so tilting.

I'd probably raise a little larger preflop after two limpers and a post in CO (I definitely don't want to go multiway to a bloated pot with this hand). Your table plays nothing like my regular table if this non-big raise managed to get this HU, so know your table I guess. You could perhaps also raise larger to target a particular stack (such as posting CO) in order to commit postflop with TP.

As played, only got in 6% of our stack preflop, and the SPR is 6. Kinda awkward spot without solid reads. Against some super loose chasey opponents, I could overpot/overpot to get stacks in by turn. Against the nittier ABC opponents, a couple of small bet/folds. Against aggro opponents, maybe some check / bluffcatches. Really opponent dependent at this point.

You really just have to have a plan. If you're comfortable with bet/folding, then bet/fold. If you're not comfortable folding to a raise, then perhaps don't bet. I'd probably fold at this point, but difficult really to know.

GcluelessreadnoobG

I'm going to stuff here.

Yes, we are largely readless on this villain, but his jumping in and out of the table might give us a small clue on his playing style. His range is heavily weighted towards draws here.

Folding is out of the question. Given his range and that we are OOP, I don't like calling. There are a ton of turn cards that are going to look scary to us, and even if a brick hits, if we lead we let him off the hook and if we check, he can check behind and see another free card.

Not in love with this spot but it's time to ship it in here.

^why can't we fold, it sucks but we are oop and have poor equity against a draw, if we know villan can turn up with qt or crap like that then fine, but read less the more I look at it the more it's a fold.

Meh, this would be very gross if starting stacks were $350+, but as it is, villain has committed himself with all draws but gutshots. I probably make a break even shove here, just to give some action.

We have poor equity against a draw? Where are you coming up with this?

We are big favorites against all flush draws and all straight draws. We are flipping vs 10c9c.

This is dead wrong. We are essentially flipping with AcXc (like 48-52 or so). We are a significant dog (60-40 or so) to Tc9c.

When I typed these hands into an equity calculator (simple app on my iphone), it showed up that we are 60-40 vs Ac2c and 50-50 vs Tc9c. Maybe the equity calculator I have is incorrect?

Villain also has lots of lower flush draws and straight draws in his range as well.

This is NOT a set, and it's NOT AQ. Definitely NOT from this dude. I could possibly see Q8, but that's not as likely as the draw.

RAI and hope your hand holds.

Thanks for the replies.

I put V on a draw (straight or flush), possibly QJ or Q10 or pair + FD. I didn't really consider a call, it was shove or fold for me. Like many have said, there would be a lot of scary turn cards OOP that I just wouldn't know what to do on, and if he was on a draw I wanted to make it expensive for him.

I shoved and he insta-called.

I binked a K on the turn and he left in disgust with 8-7o for two pair on flop. My KQ 2p took it down and he left.

Absent of reads, on overall tendency for players at this level is to typically play TP and draws quite passively (with pair + FD being a sometimes exception based on opponent).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I agree that villain just about never has top pair here.

The only "made" hand really in villain's range is exactly what you ran into: 87. Everything else is draws. For that reason, I like the shove.

You're too pessimistic for both hands. We've got 47.5% equity v. Tc9c, and 58% equity v. Ac3c. Think you've missed that we have the Qc in our hands which takes away one of his outs, and that we have redraws v. Tc9c on a club turn.

All these equity calculations are all well and good here, but no one is factoring in: villan has basically no air here at all, he could be doing this with sets, 2pairs, draws, maybe some tp hands, but I would argue not many.
Against all that lot our beast senario is a 60:40 favorite, our worst is 80:20 dog, I'm sure someone has a calculator that can do equity against a range, I have one on my pc, but I'm on my phone.
I can't imagine we are any better than 50:50 vs his range here, Im pretty sure we would be slot worse than that

Why is this not a set? Also, thrown in all of the combos of 87 being in his PF late position calling range.

V puts hero on AK or AA and never expects him to fold so he's raising for value setting up a turn shove before the board gets scary.

This is identical to the fish that donk bet into the PF raiser when they smash the flop because they can't fathom that hero raised PF with a shitty hand and can easily make an exploitative fold against them.

We have no reads on this guy, but if your standard play at 1-3 is to shove over a raise on the flop with TPGK then YOU ARE GOING BROKE and are definitely NOT a good player.

Actually, not one person in this thread has remotely suggested villain has air.

Villain's range is draws (tons of them), some two pairs, and rarely sets. We are ahead of the majority of his range. Therefore, getting it in is +EV.

This is a pretty easy fold against a nit. Villain by all appearances is here to gamble, jumping in and out of the poker table to play table games. Pretty easy read that he would be on the looser side, wants to play hands, might be happier to get it in with a draw, and not looking to fold for four hours (hence, calling the raise with 87o)

I think we are ahead of the majority of villain's range. You disagree, so we can agree to disagree. Against this villain, though I'm not in love with this spot, I think this is a fairly trivial shove.

Also, if we are folding KQ to a single raise on a draw heavy board vs a loose villain, are we also folding AQ, KK, and AA? Are we only continuing with sets, and folding everything else?

Flip a coin. If it's heads you jam if it's tails you fold. That's what I'd do in this spot.

My point is that here we ate either way behind or just infront. No way we a crushing villan here and all his draws have decent equity against us. Yes we are ahead of them but only just, we are also way behind all villans main hand. Im just convinced, certainly were I play regular and moat 1-2 that I have played there are always way better spots to put in 90bb

This isn't totally true. Players will show up with QJ/Q10 sometimes... not a lot, but sometimes.

I probably make a break even fold here, just to reduce the variance.

In all seriousness, for those advocating either a shove or a fold on the flop, aren't we better off calling on the flop and then leading on a blank turn? Think of our hand as a draw...to a blank turn. His half-pot raise on the flop gives us the correct odds for that draw.

Because if villain has a draw - and his range is draw heavy - he is pretty well priced in to call it off on the flop as an underdog. So it's best to charge him full price to see his equity in the hand.

If we were in position, calling the raise is fine. Being OOP, I don't like it. If villain is on a draw and we lead into him on brick turns, he can correctly fold when behind and shove when ahead.

Seems silly to check flop just b/c we might fold to a raise when raising frequencies are generally super low in LLSNL and value betting wet boards prints money.

Well, I didn't say it was never a set, only that it's not a set. It's uncommon to see sets pumping the pot on wet flops. They usually wait for a safe turn card before committing.

When V raised flop the odds of him having a set based on your typical play at this level indicated to me that a set is ruled out.