MGM National Harbor Saturday evening 11:30pm (after the lucky table promotions are over)

Hero - (~$360) MAWG. Seat 6. Generally played tight although I have limped a little more with SC, PP as there are a number of players willing to bluff at pots at this table so looking to make a sneaky hand and pick them off.

V1 (~$700) Seat 4 Young very quite asian guy. Seems a little timid but plays aggressive when in a hand, makes big bets, good bet sizing. Occasionally caught in what appeared to be bluffs.

V2 (~$300) Seat 1. Young Indian guy; just sat. Seems to pay attention but relaxed and having fun.

Hero is on BTN with KQ

Pre EP player V2 makes it $12, V1 calls, I call.

Flop ($36) KT5
V2 checks, V1 $18, Hero calls, V2 folds.

Turn ($72) 4
V1 bets $50, Hero calls.

River ($172) 3
V1 bets $150, Hero ??

At this point I think my hand may only have value as a bluff catcher. But his range of betting for value is AK, KK, TT, KT, 55. I suppose two pair hands are possible but unlikely or a flop bluff that caught a set on the turn?

I haven't indicated any strength so he might put me on something like QJ drawing to a straight but not sure what else he would try to bluff me off of.

A2dd or 76dd also possible here? Bluffs the flop with backdoor after PFR checks, barrels turn when he picks up additional equity, binks river?

Hmmmm. I think i make a tight fold here. Only draw that missed is QJ and we have a blocker. Good sizing by v tho

I think this is a sigh fold. We have to be good something like 45% of the time here. I doubt V is overplaying KJ- or bluffing a combined 45%, especially since I think the weaker K's get discounted because they'd often check somewhere.

Looked at another way, I don't think I want to put 80bb into a raised, 3-way pot with TP2K unless I have a good read V will often show up with worse.

If V1 is a young aggro player, I expect him to have AK/KK here rarely. TT/KT/55 is only 12 combos and OP gives read that V can bluff. He only needs to bluff/bet worse 6 combos of hands for this to be break even.

V could easily think KJ is the nuts here but from the size of the last bet, it's kinda polarizing to nuts or no SDV. V could do this with 56dd/57dd/QJ, which is way more combos than nut hands, so I sigh call

150/(150+150+172) = 31.77% we need to be good

If V has A2 or 76 here, it's almost worth the call to know that V is that spewy. Betting either of those hands OTF with a player yet to act behind is terrible.

Dang, look at me extending my mistake streak. Thanks for correction.

That obviously nudges this toward a call. But I still think it's a (heavier sigh now) fold, though more game dependent. I find V's in my games likely to be bluffing here are few and far between (and often are trivially easy to spot). Overplaying TPmheK happens, but I still think the combination of that and bluffs is somewhat less than 32%. With a half-pot bet, I start to feel like maybe we should look him up.

We don't have to be good 45% of the time for this to be a profitable call.

But I'd still fold.

Edit: sorry, hadn't refreshed the thread to see it already mentioned!

Do any of you change anything before the river? An earlier fold? A raise somewhere planning to give up if they raise or open the next street?

I'd at least give him a few combos of AK. There are 8 left, and to discount them all seems like a pretty big assumption that could really mess up the math. I think a lot depends on if we think he has KTo in his preflop range. If not, there are only 2 combos of KT he could have.

The only obvious 3-barrel river bluff combos are QJs, so 4 combos there (and he'd have to play it like this every time). I'd be hesitant to put much else in there without more information. I guess I'll ask OP if he thinks V would basically lead out with air on the flop?

I still think it's a fold.

3 combos of QJs. We have the queen of spades. I tend to completely discount AK here because most ppl do 3bet pre. So he arrives here with so few bluffs and value hands. We only beat KJ. There are so few value hands that he can get to river with. He bet 1/2 pot otf so that indicates a made hand or QJ only. Blocking QJ and KJ so 3 combos of QJs, 2 KJs. KT and bottom set 55 beat us. I dont see v ever showing with anything else. I count 8 that beat us and 5 we beat. Except KJs would be a spewy line.

So discounting that we beat 3 combos of QJs

Lose to 2 KTs, 3 55

So mathwise call. Im still folding tho but im nitty otr

Oh wait...TT beats us too. 3 more that beat us

Fold.

I don't know if villain could lead the flop with air. He has done a nice job of avoiding showing hands he lost so not clear when he overvalued or bluffed vs just had second best.

I could guess he could just be opportunistically betting that flop thinking I would fold if I missed but I don't think he fires a second barrel when I call.

It takes a huge set of balls to triple barrel with air in live low stakes. It is very rare to see. His range is uncapped and he shows up with better value hands here a huge percentage of time. Unfortunately, because of the bet/call nature of how the hand has played out, it is impossible to narrow his range.

Yes, he could be bluffing but you are getting a terrible price to Hero down with TPGK vs his uncapped range. I would lay it down and look for a better spot.

I might raise/fold smallish on the flop to $55-60. V1 can be firing with plenty of hands we are beating, as well as some hands that crush us and will leave us guessing on turns and rivers. I would expect to be 3! on the flop by worse just about never - so we can safely release our hand if that is the case, while still getting value from KJ, QJ, AJ with BDFD type hands.

I think the key for me is that OTF I don't have enough of a hand to want to get all-in with this opponent.

If we raise the flop, we might get to showdown with a bit less in the pot (checking the turn back), but V's are more likely to get frisky on the flop, so I don't love a r/f. In any case, our raise would need to be about the size of a reasonable turn bet, so I don't think it's saving much.

We could put in a small raise on the turn. With our call, pot will be $172 with $220 behind. We could put $100 on top, planning to fold to a RR (though we'd need to be really sure of our read). But if we can safely fold to a river bet from V of greater than $100 from V, we don't need to do this.

Overall, I think the line taken is the best line. We put our money in when it was likely we were ahead and then bailed out when V's line suggested strongly we were beat.

Looks like v has us crushed. I would not even think about it, if he's bluffing it was well sold.

Reasonable bluffs (9): AQ, AJ, A3, A2, QJ, QJ, QJ, Q9, J9

Reasonable 3 barrels (8): KTs (2), TT (3), 55 (3)

It's possible he is over bluffing here. I could go either way. I may click call just to see what he's got. But I think I prefer raising flop for reasons mentioned prior. I don't see AK using the sizing villain used here so I am discounting those entirely (and due to lack of 3! pre).

I think this is a spot we can raise the flop for sure

Minor note A2 is no longer a bluff. It's third nuts.

Yes true, so 8 bluffs 9 value now.

So, that is the combinatorics. But what about frequency? It seems an aggressive, value seeking villain plays the value hands this way near 100%. But does he play all those bluff hands this way 100%. That seems unlikely. Does he play them that way enough to make up 31% of the times he bets every street?

So 8*N/(8*N+9)=.32 solve for N. N=.53. So he has to bluff that range 53% of the time to justify calling. Seems unlikely.

I am basing my bluffs off your read "plays aggressive when in a hand." If you don't think he will be aggressive with his semi-bluffs then it's an easy fold. A lot of his weak flop bluffs work well because they block combos of Kx.

I agree with johnny. I think you can go either way here. I think I might slightly lean call. Against someone who's playing a bit aggressive, and tends to make big bets, I think top pair second kicker is to high up there in our range to fold. Folding isn't bad here, I don't think you can make a mistake here.

Over aggression with KJ and 76s should be considered too. It seems to be a close decision that requires a better feel for how villain has been playing.