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1/3 Top two and very deep, how to play the turn? 1/3 Top two and very deep, how to play the turn?

09-20-2019 , 03:31 PM
1/3 9 handed, I can't remember exactly what I start the hand with but it's around 800.

UTG raises to 6, which is really weird since I play with UTG all the time and have never seen him min-raise before, it's always between 10 and 60 depending on what kind of hand he has. It might have been a straddle, I'm actually pretty sure it wasn't, but either way I have no fear of him having a monster hand here. I think he has a weak drawing hand that he doesn't want to limp-call for 15-20 with so he's hoping that a raise to 6 will let him see the flop for just 6, but who knows.

HERO in the hijack with AKo, and raise to 30. I would typically make it 25, but it's a pretty LAG table so far and I know UTG hates folding so I want to punish a little extra. Small blind/VILLAIN, who I haven't played with before but has me covered by a few hundred, thinks for maybe 30 seconds and cold-calls, UTG calls.

POT: 93
FLOP: A K T rainbow

So we smash the flop, top two pair, and we can expect to get called by lesser two pairs, all aces, pair + gutters, and maybe some naked kings and tens, particularly from the UTG player who I know hates folding any equity. Betting seems pretty obvious, so it checks to HERO who bets 55. Small blind/VILLAIN calls, UTG folds.

POT: 203
TURN: 9h, bringing a heart flush draw.

VILLAIN thinks for a few seconds and then checks. Here's where HERO makes the slightly MUBSy decision that might not be correct and checks back.

THOUGHT PROCESS: When the SB called flop the alarms started going off in my head, and I'm not sure if it's just because I've been running bad lately or if it's because I should actually be a little worried.

I'm losing to the 4 combos of QJs and 3 combos of TT, which are both firmly in the SBs range, but that's really about it, so 7 combos I'm losing to. If I bet, I can get action from ATs, A9s, KTs, probably AQ, possibly AJs, and any hand that has picked up a flush draw to go with their pair or pair+gutter. So there are definitely more combos I'm beating that I can get value out of than hands I'm losing to.

However, the SB has a lot of hands I'm beating that have minimal equity against me that will almost certainly fold to a 2nd bet, like weak aces, king+gutter, ten+gutter, JJ, QQ (I would expect a 4-bet from QQ preflop but not always), and even AJ and possibly even AQ will find a fold since I'm repping more than one pair. All those hands have minimal equity against me, and many of them will be obvious if they do hit to beat me, so there isn't a ton of value in charging those hands. Also, many of those hands will feel much more obligated to pay off on the river than the turn, so I can capture value from them that way. AQ and AJ in particular are way more likely to pay off on the river if I check the turn.

I have about 700 dollars behind, if I bet and get raised I'll probably have to call because I'm still beating other two pair hands, but I will not be getting the right price against TT or QJ. Those hands will very likely raise now that a flush draw is out there. I would obviously just shove if I had a PSB or less behind, but at this stack depth, I decide to check. Too MUBSy, or does my logic make sense?

POT: 203
RIVER: K, flush draw bricks.

Amazing river. VILLAIN bets 150. HERO raises to 400.

Will post results later. I'm really only looking for thoughts on the turn play since I think the rest of the hand pretty much played itself outside of maybe wanting to bet more on the flop.
1/3 Top two and very deep, how to play the turn? Quote
09-20-2019 , 04:33 PM
I would have bet the turn. It's so unlikely that he has you beat right now, and we want value. Plus, we don't want to give him a free card. I would have gone $75 to $100. There are a ton of hands he'll call with. If he folds, you weren't getting any more from him on the river, anyway, unless he hit a better hand.
1/3 Top two and very deep, how to play the turn? Quote
09-20-2019 , 05:02 PM
I like another 1/2 pot bet OTT. I would have maybe gone a bit bigger on the flop even. Turn can go either way. The villains range should be pretty tight on this board. The problem is we have a hand that is in a really bad spot if he pulls the x/r. Would he x/r AT/KT? I don't completely hate the check back given that V doesn't have a huge range, and has the nuts in it, as well as some other hands that might want to check/raise. But I think top two is still too good not to go for value against Ax and his draws.
1/3 Top two and very deep, how to play the turn? Quote
09-20-2019 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
I like another 1/2 pot bet OTT. I would have maybe gone a bit bigger on the flop even. Turn can go either way. The villains range should be pretty tight on this board. The problem is we have a hand that is in a really bad spot if he pulls the x/r. Would he x/r AT/KT? I don't completely hate the check back given that V doesn't have a huge range, and has the nuts in it, as well as some other hands that might want to check/raise. But I think top two is still too good not to go for value against Ax and his draws.
Do you think it's realistic to expect him to call with most Ax combos?

Like, I'm sure he's calling with aces up or aces with a heart draw, probably calling with AQ, might be calling with AJ, but if he has any other aces (I don't know if he's calling Arag suited preflop, he probably shouldn't but a lot of people do) I just kind of expect him to fold to the second barrel.
1/3 Top two and very deep, how to play the turn? Quote

      
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