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Old 03-15-2018, 02:29 PM   #26
SwolyswoND
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

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Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
If this is what you think, then I don't know what to tell you either.
As I alluded to above, V's range to a raise of any size is exclusively sets or flush draws here, right?

His sets are going to GII regardless of whether we make it $250 or jam, right?

So since that portion of the decision tree is irrelevant, we target his flush draws.

Our options here are: (1) jam and let an OMC (correctly) fold a flush draw for $380 to potentially win $810 - which would be correct for him to do since he has only 25% equity; or (2) give him the chance to call $150 more into a pot of $580 to chase one of his 8 clean outs - which would be a mistake to call since he has only a 17% chance of hitting the turn.

I've yet to hear an explanation as to why (1) is better than (2).
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:35 PM   #27
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

If we were HU for $580 I might agree. We are not...two players are all in so letting him chase just reduces our equity in the main pots as well as allows OMC to draw cheaply to win everything (including our remaining stack). Not worth it IMO unless he wants to play for it all now.

Generally I don't try to milk a small amount out of a third player in a dry side pot when the main pot is already a combined $385, the main portion of which I want HU against the second all-in V. But that's me.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:39 PM   #28
Railbird_1211
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

I don't understand this thread at all.

Everybody is talking about the OMC here as if he is getting in his set regardless of what happens. Do we REALLY believe that if turn brings a heart? If he's a true OMC, he is going to be terrified of that heart and most likely will fold all of his sets. We are shoving the flop here in order to get his money in now with the set vs. letting a heart come on the turn and him folding because "they hit their flush every time!"

This OMC also demonstrates why shoving the flop is right to not give him a free card in case he doesn't have the set.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:41 PM   #29
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

Yeah, I mean he just folded two overs + nut flush draw on the flop, so I could see perhaps see him folding a set on the turn if the flush comes. Although at that point he may feel he has the odds to boat up.

Glikealottarecentthreads,it'sprobablyclose/whatevereitherwayG
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Old 03-15-2018, 03:45 PM   #30
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

I'm not making my decision about how to maximize versus the set portion of OMC's range by worrying about what he MIGHT do for his last $230 into a pot of over $1,000 the one time out of five a heart hits the turn.
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Old 03-15-2018, 03:47 PM   #31
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

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Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
If we were HU for $580 I might agree. We are not...two players are all in so letting him chase just reduces our equity in the main pots as well as allows OMC to draw cheaply to win everything (including our remaining stack). Not worth it IMO unless he wants to play for it all now.

Generally I don't try to milk a small amount out of a third player in a dry side pot when the main pot is already a combined $385, the main portion of which I want HU against the second all-in V. But that's me.
Except I just showed that he's not drawing cheaply to win everything. He would be getting incorrect odds to draw to a flush on the turn even if we raise only $150.

That's what we want opponents to do in poker: call getting incorrect odds to win. Are they going to hit and win sometimes? Yes - but not often enough to justify the price we lay them. So I WANT this OMC to call for $150 more drawing to a flush. I don't want him to fold when I have him crushed just because he is going to suck out on me 25% of the time.
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Old 03-15-2018, 03:52 PM   #32
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

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Except I just showed that he's not drawing cheaply to win everything. He would be getting incorrect odds to draw to a flush on the turn even if we raise only $150.

That's what we want opponents to do in poker: call getting incorrect odds to win. Are they going to hit and win sometimes? Yes - but not often enough to justify the price we lay them. So I WANT this OMC to call for $150 more drawing to a flush. I don't want him to fold when I have him crushed just because he is going to suck out on me 25% of the time.
We won't agree as I don't think you are factoring in the main pot(s) and two other all in players in terms of what your total winning equity actually is. I just don't think this is a spot to try and squeeze out $150 more when (1) we wont ever fold, (2) the main pot(s) are close to as big as the total additional win from OMC and (3) we already have to beat two all in players to win said main pot and no need to add a third.
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Old 03-15-2018, 04:28 PM   #33
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Re: 1/3 - Top set in locked pot

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We won't agree as I don't think you are factoring in the main pot(s) and two other all in players in terms of what your total winning equity actually is. I just don't think this is a spot to try and squeeze out $150 more when (1) we wont ever fold, (2) the main pot(s) are close to as big as the total additional win from OMC and (3) we already have to beat two all in players to win said main pot and no need to add a third.
The two all-in players are irrelevant at this point. We hold the nuts and either one of them holds a flush draw, or the OMC does, or both. The only decision points going forward are how to maximize value versus the OMC's range, so the only thing that matters is his equity against us. What exactly are you worried about dodging except a heart that doesn't pair the board?

Your line isn't bad or -EV, but it's not the best or the most +EV. And there's no reason to not make the most +EV choice.
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