Playing at Talking Stick in Arizona. Games are 7 handed during pandemic.

I’m playing with 300 effective. Hero Utg+2 10 10 open to 15 bb calls.

Pot: ~$30
Flop is 3 8 10 two , Villian check to me I bet 21, bb calls.

Pot: ~$70
Turn is 4 V checks, I bet 35, bb calls.

Pot: ~$140
River is 7 . V checks Hero?

I get confused after villain calls my turn bet. The straight comes in on the river and I’m not confident that I’ll get called by worse if I bet. Would appreciate any thoughts on the line. Thanks for the input.

Which are the two spades on the flop? And what's the river card?

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Welcome to the forum, OP. I edited your post to make it easier to follow and edited out the results both from the OP and from the thread title. Please don't give results until discussion dies down, or at least 24 hours after the OP, as they bias people's advice.

I wouldn't worry about the straight coming in OTR, as it is very unlikely BB took that line with 56, 69, or J9. All of those holding would almost certainly have folded earlier in the hand. While the FD coming in OTT is mildly concerning, I doubt he check-calls OTT and then checks river with a flush.

Bet/fold half pot for fat value OTR, imo. This is no board to have MUBS on, but unless V is a maniac, he's not raising river with worse. Sometimes you'll value cut yourself against a small flush played passively, but more often you'll get called by TPGK.

1/3 players aren’t sophisticated enough to check call a flush to let you bluff or value own yourself. They just Donk. Because hurpy durpy doo.

The board runout isn’t the best. But even a live 1/3 player isn’t going to be calling a bare open ender that often (they’d probably at least have a spade to do so).

So given that live 1/3 players love to call, I think a bet of 70 is nice in the end. Sometimes you’ll value cut yourself. But the way your opponent played this hand makes me confident that top set is the best hand way more often than not.


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Thank you guys!

I think I’m still 1/3-1/2 PSB’ing the river.

ehhhhh.... aside from the "they always have it" tip, I wouldnt say checking to induce necessarily makes them sophisticated. There's a decent chunk of live players who at least understand the impact of initiative and that as long as you're betting they might as well let you. I've actually had players with as weak as 23ss check and say "i was worried you had a better flush".

I think there's a good argument for "what worse will call?" A lot of reasonable draws whiffed, and it's live so he can have all of the unreasonable hands that hit. I check back, dont care if anyone notices the tampon string hanging from under my dress, and hope they misconstrue future lines in spots where I have the range advantage.

We have a huge range advantage, imo. V has 4 combos of AT, and at least 3 each of JT-KT, as well as perhaps a couple of As8x and 78 and one each of 9Ts and a passively played pocket pair or lower set. We beat at least 16 combos.

Meanwhile, his flush combos have to be heavily discounted, based on how he played it. Let's say he takes that line 25% of the time, and he calls pre with all the SCs, As8s+, KsTs, and any two Broadway spades. We don't know which flop card wasn't a spade, so I'll just randomly assign it to the 8. So PF combos with 3s and Ts are not available, since those are on the board. So there are 5 little flushes and 8 Ace/Face-high flushes. Lets go nuts and give him the suited gappers in spades too, for another 5 combos.

That's the equivalent of 4.5 flush combos in his range. Checking back to avoid cutting ourselves about 20% of the time seems pretty bad to me.

^ i give him literally every suited hand in the deck as a range here, plus the gutshot draws.

I mean, I know we don't have any reads on V, and that would be helpful, but I just can't see not discounting those given the line taken so far. Even for the loosest most passive Vs, many of those combos just make no sense.

It is a rare V indeed who will call flop with no pair, no draw, so surely we must eliminate at least all the 56 combos that aren't 5s6s. It's pretty dang rare that a V will call a second street with nothing but a gutshot after a FD came in as well. Though it's not impossible, I would still be surprised.

Less rare, but still pretty unusual, is a V defending their BB from an EP raise to 5x with crap like 29s. And even if he did, the post flop line, while not rare, is also not ubiquitous with a small flush. To not discount those combos seems the worst sort of MUBS to me.

I definitely agree that V could have a MUBSy flush. I just think it’s not too common for reasons Garick mentioned.


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I'm an extremely thin value bettor, but I think this is a lot closer than the consensus. I assume you're targeting T9+? Villain presumably has all 16 combos of J9. He also has a lot of flushes; I wouldn't be remotely surprised if villain had a flush here - I see this all of the time.

Yes, targeting T9+. I def don't think they have all J9 combos for the reasons given above. Not impossible, but not likely.

I agree that a flush would not be surprising. The range I gave above would be between 1/5-1/4 flushes, which is far from a surprise holding.

I limp in but that's my style.

SPR is about 10 on the flop which means we can get stacks in (our desire) with 3 solid bets. Board is also pretty drawy. Super easy PSB (or even PSB+) bet on the flop for me. One of the single biggest reasons to raise preflop is so that we can play for stacks more easily if we bink, and now we can't even do that thanks to meh postflop bet sizing, imo.

I'll often check back this turn as it can induce busted straight draws to rep the flush, plus we don't risk having to fold a potential monster to a check/raise. Although it does risk bringing stoopid 4-to-a-flush cards, but I just don't feel as committed as I did on the flop.

I think it's an interesting river spot because aren't a huge amount of hands we're targetting with a bet. A slowplayed flop 88/33 can definitely pay off. Tx hands are limited due to our holdings. Maybe something like 87? Might also depend a bit on our image; if we're nit tight we're not going to get looked up too light on this run out, but if we're crazy aggro then we will. Also depends a bit on what we think he's capable of. If we do a very small bet of like 1/4 - 1/3 PSB targetting weak hands is he capable of getting tricky and stealing the pot, or even playing a flush like this (as most would be the river fearing it checks thru)? I would probably mostly go like $40/fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I would just check it down, unless Villian is calling station.

You're going to be put in a tough spot if you get check raised for your stack, and often times Villian won't pay off your small bet so you gain little (except not having to show your hand).

Then again, I only play in home games (social, non-raked) and players love to donk bet or slow play...value bets often backfire.

It should be noted that top set is a particularly bad hand to value bet on this river because everything got there and we block the hand we want him to have (top pair).

I'd bet every other set before this one. I'd only bet TT vs the very biggest fish who'll call with like 2nd and 3rd pair.

I mean fwiw we’re already constrained to flushes (of which OP will have few from UTG +2, probably like 10-14 combos) and 88. AsK and AsQ alone are 6 combos.

If betting TT is a mistake, it’s a really minor mistake. But if it’s profitable, it’s likely very profitable. So we should be inclined to bet fold. Villain is likely capped to low flushes, and when he doesn’t have a flush, we almost certainly have the best hand. And there’s still 16 combos of JT-AT for him to call us with.


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