Villain (BB): 50s Asian guy, nitty and the one time he put big money into the pot he flopped a straight ($350)
Hero (MP): late 20s Asian guy, TAG image (covers)

Super loose fish limps in. Hero makes it in MP with AQ. Only villain calls.

Flop: A85 ($46)

Villain checks. Hero bets $25. Villain calls.

Turn: 9 ($96)

Villain checks. Hero ???

Unfortunately the guy I wanted to fold called and the guy I wanted to call folded. So vs this nit instead of a three street hand this is definitely a two street handed unimproved. Question is whether to check back the turn or river.

Solve: 4W[H]Y / E[QU]ATE [copyright pending]

So, if we can solve for why V calls pre & then c/c the flop, followed by another check ott, we would be able to better equate what his actions represent.

For that, we need to know his calling range, continuing range & how he plays OOP when he has various made hands otf & hands that improved ott [that he would check] vs. a player that has shown strength on both of the previous streets.

This situation is a great place to check the turn. Most players assume you don't have an ace and will call down second pair on the river.

+1.

Checking back this turn serves alot of purposes, including pot control with one pair and also widening our own percieved range from villains eyes when we "give up" on the turn.

If you can place ATs/AJ in his PFR calling range, I like a turn checkback, since these are more likely to call (or lead) the river. AK/sets are also pot controlled by the check.

I prefer betting $45 when I think I'm ahead of the majority of V's calling range otf. $30, maybe $35, if it's close. There really isn't $96 in the pot. Rake & toke is not deducted.

+2

This happened to me several times Friday night at my $1/$3 game with almost exactly the scenario you just posted. In each circumstance, I checked turn, VB river and villains showed up with 2nd pair.

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Ck back turn for value/pot control purposes. Call a river bet that's not obscenely big on most rivers, or make a $45-50 river bet yourself when he cks.

Sounds like a classic case of checking back a moderately strong hand on the turn when you judge the benefit of getting more value from V on the river outweighs the risk of him drawing out on you. This has generally worked out well for me.

I would say bet the turn almost always, but this actually could be a good spot for a check back TBH. Badugi board, not too many river cards are bad for us (with the exception of 6's and 7's). You could also size down on the turn too as an alternative to checking. So it really depends on your read of V and how he reacts to each line and what maximizes your EV in this spot.

With the fairly drawless board (noting the only draw got there on the turn), I would mostly check back the turn. Against a lot of opponents this would setup an easy bluff / blocking bet catch on the river (or one more street of value if checked to); against this guy, a nitty fold will have to be considered.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think that betting the turn is superior to checking. There are a lot of action killers on the river (4 straights (6,7) + bad cards such as the J/T+stuff like the 8 isn't great either. I think that checking the turn has more merit vs. aggressive players who will turn hands into bluffs on the river. If we're wanting to get 2 streets of value (typically), I think betting the turn and checking the river is a better plan of action on a board like this. Villain is going to c/r with most of his made hands and we can comfortably b/f and then determine a plan on the river. Now, if villain is donkish and aggressive, checking turn can be a fine plan (with calling a lot of rivers). Furthermore, checking the turn can also be a good play vs. aggressive players who can turn made hands into bluffs or semi bluffs (ie. someone check/raising something like 56s wouldn't be awful).

Good spot to check back.

Also of note is that we're going to be complete airballing this turn almost never, meaning our betting range will basically consist of strong hands and at least semi-strong draw (like a QT that has two overcards to second pair and a gutter). This isn't a spot where I'd expect a reasonably playing nit to give us 3 streets. We can make a poker decision if the river is an 8/7/6 and he bets.

Since someone DMed me about results, I bet $50 and he check raised to $125. Snap folded.