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Old 08-04-2013, 10:52 AM   #1
judz
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1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

i've been at this table for approximately two hours. i've just lost a big pot and only have $130 in front of me.

utg+1 with AQo, i open for 12. a player in middle position calls, the small blind calls, and the big blind calls.

the middle position player just recently got to the table and so far seems to call a decent number of flop raises, but is relatively tight post flop.
the small blind is an older gentlemen who is pretty splashy, has been downing some beers, and is the player who beat me in the large pot mentioned above.
the big blind is also fairly new to the table. i haven't seen him before, but he appears to be a regular based on the number of players he knows in the room. so far, he's been tight.

flop (pot ~$48) - Qd8h2c
small blind check
big blind check
hero ???

i felt like i was in an odd spot here with an SPR of only 2 playing multi-way against three players. i considered a half pot size bet, but was concerned about it being called multiple ways and having to play the latter streets with a stack smaller than the pot. is that an unnecessary concern?

the goal here is to get all of the money in given how small my stack is. my question is what's the best way to do that?
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Old 08-04-2013, 11:10 AM   #2
dp
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I think you need to cbet. I think your good here majority of time .. Bet like 17 get the blinds out.. Hopefully someone has a q.. Don't give a free card to 3 players
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Old 08-04-2013, 11:17 AM   #3
Neutrogena
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

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Originally Posted by judz View Post
i felt like i was in an odd spot here with an SPR of only 2 playing multi-way against three players. i considered a half pot size bet, but was concerned about it being called multiple ways and having to play the latter streets with a stack smaller than the pot. is that an unnecessary concern?
Why would that be a bad thing, unless you're concerned whether you're committed and not be able to fold?

I like a smaller bet as well. The board is very dry and is not going to hit most people's range that called a raise preflop.

Turn would be more interesting depending on what comes.
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Old 08-04-2013, 11:58 AM   #4
Lionhat
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The optimal way to get your money is situation dependent.
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Old 08-04-2013, 12:43 PM   #5
loosekanen
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

if i were you i'd bet 30 and there would be very few cards that could turn that would result in me not shoving the turn. K or J on the turn probably gives me second thought but I'm still likely getting it in with such small effective stacks.
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Old 08-04-2013, 01:03 PM   #6
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K and J are less of a concern than T976.
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Old 08-04-2013, 01:28 PM   #7
wck117
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

A 6 would be a concern because...? I like a 25 flop bet, depending on the turn either a shove or b/c
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Old 08-04-2013, 01:35 PM   #8
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Sorry not 6. Had to remember the board when typing on the phone.
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Old 08-04-2013, 02:52 PM   #9
T Mez
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

With this dry flop, I would b/f $30 & jam all turns if heads up. With only 39bb, I would not worry about getting multiple callers with less than PSB left.
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Old 08-04-2013, 04:44 PM   #10
judz
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

any merit to just overshoving the flop?
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Old 08-04-2013, 05:03 PM   #11
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

I can't think of any. Why would you even consider it?
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Old 08-04-2013, 05:13 PM   #12
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

OP, you seem to be worried about some things you shouldn't be.

On this board it is soooooooo infrequent that you are behind you are quite happy just to commit to the pot and look to get all you chips in. Having less than a PSB is not a problem at all. This is especially true when villains have lots of worse Qs in their range. We are just looking to stack them and when somebody has flopped a set, oh well!
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Old 08-04-2013, 05:21 PM   #13
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

Let's bet 32-35 to set up a turn shove
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Old 08-04-2013, 05:24 PM   #14
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

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Let's bet 32-35 to set up a turn shove
IMO it is too big, which would fold out a lot of gut shots and non-TP hands on this board.

I like $25 on flop. If HU, I'll go $45 on turn and shove river.

MW, I'll shove turn.

Although I do lack experience in 1/2, so I may be overestimating people's ability to fold.
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Old 08-04-2013, 05:38 PM   #15
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

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IMO it is too big, which would fold out a lot of gut shots and non-TP hands on this board.

I like $25 on flop. If HU, I'll go $45 on turn and shove river.

MW, I'll shove turn.

Although I do lack experience in 1/2, so I may be overestimating people's ability to fold.
Have to disagree here for following reasons.

Balance has very close to 0 value in this spot.

The key point (and one that lots of people will disagree with) is that lots of villains are actually more scared of two medium barrels than 1 big one. This means a huge portion of the player pool, IMO, will not fold a Q to any <pot size bet on this flop but will fold turn quite a bit. Basically EVERYBODY KNOWS ABOUT CBETTING!

Therefore the times we lose value from a Q outweigh the benefit of opening up calling range.

8x has ~5 outs so calling 25 to win 170 is not a HUGE mistake. Same for the gutshots, although obv a bigger mistake. Now, obviously it still is a mistake, and if we could be assured that betting $25 instead of $40 would mean villains calling all those hands instead of folding then it would be great.

However, I reckon a lot of the time those hands are calling or folding anyway, so the small times we induce small/medium mistakes due to small bet size< the times we lose small/medium value due to same small bet size.

Just my observations on how typical villains play.
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Old 08-04-2013, 05:52 PM   #16
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

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Have to disagree here for following reasons.

Balance has very close to 0 value in this spot.
Balance actually has never crossed my mind in this hand.

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Originally Posted by quesuerte View Post
The key point (and one that lots of people will disagree with) is that lots of villains are actually more scared of two medium barrels than 1 big one. This means a huge portion of the player pool, IMO, will not fold a Q to any <pot size bet on this flop but will fold turn quite a bit. Basically EVERYBODY KNOWS ABOUT CBETTING!
I am in agreement.

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Therefore the times we lose value from a Q outweigh the benefit of opening up calling range.
Now I disagree. Given our remaining stack size and board texture, I don't see how we can lose value against Qx. Although I'll be curious if there is argument to be made.


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8x has ~5 outs so calling 25 to win 170 is not a HUGE mistake. Same for the gutshots, although obv a bigger mistake. Now, obviously it still is a mistake, and if we could be assured that betting $25 instead of $40 would mean villains calling all those hands instead of folding then it would be great.
My assumption is that $40 will fold out most gutshots, 8x, and PP, but again, that's matter of opinion. In a 3/5 game, $100 will definitely fold out 8x and gutshots, whereas $60 is much less likely.

If I know that villains have very strong calling station tendency, then yes, I would definitely size bigger.

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However, I reckon a lot of the time those hands are calling or folding anyway, so the small times we induce small/medium mistakes due to small bet size< the times we lose small/medium value due to same small bet size.
I am not sure if above is true in this case. Care to elaborate?
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Old 08-04-2013, 06:08 PM   #17
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

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Balance actually has never crossed my mind in this hand.



I am in agreement.



Now I disagree. Given our remaining stack size and board texture, I don't see how we can lose value against Qx. Although I'll be curious if there is argument to be made.

Well, sadly I can't elaborate! I don't claim to have any stats or proof to back this up. I literally is just in my estimation as stated before.

I'll rephrase to clarify my guess! the fact that calling a smaller bet with gutshot/8x is not a massive mistake


My assumption is that $40 will fold out most gutshots, 8x, and PP, but again, that's matter of opinion. In a 3/5 game, $100 will definitely fold out 8x and gutshots, whereas $60 is much less likely.

If I know that villains have very strong calling station tendency, then yes, I would definitely size bigger.



I am not sure if above is true in this case. Care to elaborate?
Well, sadly I can't elaborate! I don't claim to have any stats or proof to back this up. I literally is just in my estimation as stated before.

I'll rephrase to clarify my guess! the fact is that calling a smaller bet with gutshot/8x is not a massive mistake. If we were sure to induce that mistake a large number of times by changing the bet sizing then it might outweigh the missed value from a Q. However, while it is obviously true we get called more by these hands at the smaller sizing, neither the frequency nor the gravity of mistakes induced compensate for the times we lose value from a worse hand (mostly Qx but some of those same 8x and gutshot hands too) calling a larger bet on the flop and folding the turn.

I think people size horribly in super weak games because they are convinced 1/2 or 2/3 pot bets are "fundamentally correct", whereas the extreme multiway nature of pots means that we should be betting a lot smaller range and betting it bigger.

The last para obv does not refer to your argument here, which is obv completely logical, rather just a general observation.

Having had the fortune to have followed the evolution of poker since the start of the internet days the bet sizing got smaller as games got more aggressive because we had air (which is totally fine) so much and needed a good price on our bluffs.

That dynamic plays a way smaller role in most 1/2 or 2/5 games.
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:23 PM   #18
judz
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

i agree - i think sizing closer to 30-35 makes more sense given that most villains in the 1/3 games don't appear to have great grasps of pot sizing.

i chose to shove the flop because i was afraid of going multiway to the turn with a small stack to pot ratio. i also thought this play might look bluffy and generate a call from a weaker queen.

in retrospect, i think that's a poor play and that betting 30 or so on the flop to isolate versus a weaker queen and shoving the turn makes more sense. i don't think the queen is probably calling the turn, but i do think it at least extracts another bet.
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:53 PM   #19
docpangloss
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

This is a classic Way Ahead/Way Behind hand. So the key is to bet an amount that won't scare off the Qx and 8x hands, and also not commit yourself too quickly if you do happen to be way behind. These goals fortunately lead to the same action.

There are no real draws to concern yourself with, so you won't be pricing anyone in by betting small. Betting about 1/2 pot seems reasonable here, and I'd even say 1/3 pot would not be a mistake. Let them come along.
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Old 08-05-2013, 12:20 AM   #20
Neutrogena
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

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i agree - i think sizing closer to 30-35 makes more sense given that most villains in the 1/3 games don't appear to have great grasps of pot sizing.
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i chose to shove the flop because i was afraid of going multiway to the turn with a small stack to pot ratio. i also thought this play might look bluffy and generate a call from a weaker queen.
A lot of truth in what you said.
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Old 08-05-2013, 11:04 AM   #21
Neutrogena
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

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Well, sadly I can't elaborate! I don't claim to have any stats or proof to back this up. I literally is just in my estimation as stated before.
I sort of looked into it, but my poker math is fuzzy. sigh.

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Originally Posted by quesuerte View Post
I'll rephrase to clarify my guess! the fact is that calling a smaller bet with gutshot/8x is not a massive mistake. If we were sure to induce that mistake a large number of times by changing the bet sizing then it might outweigh the missed value from a Q. However, while it is obviously true we get called more by these hands at the smaller sizing, neither the frequency nor the gravity of mistakes induced compensate for the times we lose value from a worse hand (mostly Qx but some of those same 8x and gutshot hands too) calling a larger bet on the flop and folding the turn.
I have a slight problem with bold above. Perhaps in a general sense on a wetter board that your statement is more accurate, but I feel that in a very dry board like this one, we're not going to lose much value against Qx and 8x.

In other words, I don't think villain is going to think in his head "one time" and fold turn with whatever reasoning that induces him to call with Qx, but 8x is definitely up for argument and I think a smaller bet on flop creates room for villain to make another mistake on turn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by quesuerte View Post
I think people size horribly in super weak games because they are convinced 1/2 or 2/3 pot bets are "fundamentally correct", whereas the extreme multiway nature of pots means that we should be betting a lot smaller range and betting it bigger.
Again, I agree with above in a general sense. However in this case, I feel that by allowing a wider range to come in, we can induce villain to make another mistake on turn.
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Old 08-06-2013, 04:14 PM   #22
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 - top pair and bet sizing

If you are better than most players at the table, you should be keeping stacked up to the maximum BI (which I'm assuming is $300). Sitting shortstacked with poor players is horrible.

A $12 open at my 1/3 table is on the small side and typically gets exactly this: 3 or 4 callers, none of whom are making that big of a mistake with a speculative hand getting immediate odds of ~$4:1 with another 10x behind in implied. Make it more like $15 to make it even easier to stack off postflop on TP, plus have a better chance at narrowing the field.

We're in a crappy spot on the flop, imo. We've got a small SPR with TPTK so typically there's nothing else we can do but attempt to get it in over the first 2 streets (I'd bet large on the flop, say 3/4 PSB and then shove the rest in on the turn). The problem is that the more players in the hand, the more likely someone drew out on us, and again, no one really made a mistake preflop if they all assumed it was going quite multiway. I'd just get it in over two streets and live with the results. Next time, make it $15, get it HU where the preflop caller has made his mistake, and this hand is ez, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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