Quote:
Originally Posted by Neutrogena
IMO it is too big, which would fold out a lot of gut shots and non-TP hands on this board.
I like $25 on flop. If HU, I'll go $45 on turn and shove river.
MW, I'll shove turn.
Although I do lack experience in 1/2, so I may be overestimating people's ability to fold.
Have to disagree here for following reasons.
Balance has very close to 0 value in this spot.
The key point (and one that lots of people will disagree with) is that lots of villains are actually more scared of two medium barrels than 1 big one. This means a huge portion of the player pool, IMO, will not fold a Q to any <pot size bet on this flop but will fold turn quite a bit. Basically EVERYBODY KNOWS ABOUT CBETTING!
Therefore the times we lose value from a Q outweigh the benefit of opening up calling range.
8x has ~5 outs so calling 25 to win 170 is not a HUGE mistake. Same for the gutshots, although obv a bigger mistake. Now, obviously it still is a mistake, and if we could be assured that betting $25 instead of $40 would mean villains calling all those hands instead of folding then it would be great.
However, I reckon a lot of the time those hands are calling or folding anyway, so the small times we induce small/medium mistakes due to small bet size< the times we lose small/medium value due to same small bet size.
Just my observations on how typical villains play.