I forget the exact suits on this but the flop was rainbow and there was never a flush.

Villian1 & Villian2 are playing about average for 1/3. Not particularly loose or tight.

I have about $450 in my stack and V2 bought in for the max and has more than $500.


Preflop:

V1: UTG+1 raises to 15. V2 is to my right and calls. Hero is in the cuttoff with JJ calls.

Pot: $48

Flop:

AJ10

V1 checks. V2 bets $35. Hero calls with plans to raise the turn after more money is in the pot. V1 folds.

Pot: $118

Turn:

Q

V2 checks. Hero I'm aware of the 4 card straight but thinks it's more likely he doesn't have a straight I want to build the pot and bet $70. V2 thinks real hard and calls.

Pot: $258

River:

A

V2 thinks then shoves all in and has me covered! Hero has about $350 behind.

Although I normally wouldn't worry about a higher boat on a single paired board, with 2 aces and every Broadway card except a king it's very possible he has a higher boat here. Fold or call?

14 realistic combos of boats we lose to. TT is def possible. AK is unlikely. KQ is also possible but unlikely. Im just guessing we need like 38% to call here. So 14 we lose to and maybe like 6 we beat. Seems like a fold. I would have 3 bet pre tho

Im assuming theres no flush draw either

I'm cool with just calling preflop. We are facing an EP raise and it sounds like this guy might not be getting too outta line. There's not exactly a crapload of dead money in the pot compared to stacks behind. We'd hate to have to fold to a reraise.

SPR is 9, so if we can PSBs in on the first two streets we can play for stacks by the river, and overall I think that's what we should be aiming for here (and even though we could be beat, there are still a lotta hands that we are ahead of that could be happy enough playing for stacks).

I would probably raise the flop as there are 8 action/hand killing cards. Not really worried about pricing out anything, just looking to get in some more money while I can. I probably go like $90 just to get the ball rolling.

This turn is why I want to be raising the flop. There is a real fear we might lose Villain with a bet here, although there's also a good chance he has a two pair hand that might chase. The more chasey he is, the more I bet. The more solid he is, the more I resign myself to only getting one more bet in and checking it back.

Against a Villain leaning towards the solid side, I sigh fold the river. AQ/AJ/AT all just got there and that really looks like what we're up against.

ETA: I forgot that we're ahead of TT, but we're also behind QQ (and both of these hands could have been played this way). I'm too lazy too math, but unless Villain is capable of lol overvalueing Kx / weak Ax here, I doubt there's enough reasonable hands to warrant a call.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Without a read that this guy would over value Kx or trip aces here this is a fold. AA, AJ, A10, AQ, QQ are all beating us. That's more than enough.

OP are you looking for ranging advice or math help?

He wants to know if he should call or fold.

Folding. Nice of him to bet this much.

This is a prime example of bad sizing/greed on the river by villain. If he bets $125 he gets looked up.

I very much disagree with this. Most LLSNL players aren't folding a king here (which we're repping), let alone a lower boat. If a $350 shove gets called even half as often as a $125 bet does, it's significantly more profitable.

Most? Where do you play? I want in.

OP.

There's merit to 3betting pre, but call is fine. Should be raising flop.

As played, fold.

I'm puke folding here. Very few LLSNL V's are bluff overbetting the river, so I'm discounting bluffs almost entirely. Very few LLSNL V's are overbetting a straight on the paired board, so I'm discounting that. That leaves us with boats we beat vs. boats that beat us. All we beat is TT; everything else has us. Fold and (silently) thank V for making a transparent bet here.

lol, it's a clear fold. the question is, is he unsure because he doesn't know how to do the math or because he's unclear on an appropriate range?

Does anyone else raise flop here? Feels like we get value from 2p, and things like AK.

It's obviously not a clear fold for him. If it was a clear fold for him he wouldn't have made a thread about the hand and ended it with the question "fold or call?"

And math means nothing when you're buried.

Wow. Me too.

I agree this is a fold. There's 2 reasons I asked this. First other players at the table were talking about this afterwards and I overheard 2 them say they would have called in my spot.

Seconds because of the bet sizing on the river I actually thought this was a much closer fold at the time than most of you guys do (although the more I thought about it afterwards the more it seemed like a clear fold). If he had bet $200 I would have considered it a much easier fold. V2 seemed like at least a somewhat thinking opponent so I thought it was very strange that he threw in such a large bet at the end rather than trying to milk it if he had aces full. Keep in mind I was repping a straight so any boat would beat that.

To be honest I didn't consider QQ very likely cause of the flop bet. Someone is likely to have an ace or 2 pair there and if he's willing to semi bluff with a week pair + gutshot then you have to add QJ & Q10 as possibilities. I find a lot players tend to go to the extreme on bet sizing when they're bluffing. Either very small cause they're afraid of getting caught or very large cause they want to make sure you fold. He's not going to go small though if he thinks I have a straight cause many players would look him up. This is why I considered J10 a candidate and AK KQ outside possibilities too (although his turn play wouldn't make much sense for AK KQ). BTW I don't consider QJ Q10 or J10 or even KQ good hands to call a raise with normally but there's tons of players who regularly call raises with any connected cards all the time.

PS the guy told me afterwards that he put me on a straight and the reason he bet so big was he wanted me to think he was bluffing. He also showed QQ which very much surprised me. I thought AQ A10 and 1010 were the most likely hands.

One other thing. In heinsight you guys are right, I should have raised the flop. Generally I like to smooth call and trap rather than blast my opponents off a hand when I flop a set unless it's a very wet board. But in this case many times villain is going to have 2 pair which not only makes a call more likely but also means there's another way my hand can be ruined besides a straight.

Thank you all for the replies.

My original take was that his flop bet made perfect sense: the preflop raiser checked, he has second pair on a somewhat drawy board with only one to act behind him, and so he bet it. Makes sense.

What makes no sense at all is what the preflop raiser has. Seriously, wtf, like 99? Other than that, the preflop raiser should have smashed this flop (even KK/QQ have gutshot/set outs). So with that in mind, perhaps it does make it a little surprising QQ bet the flop here.

GcluelesshandreadingnoobG

I don't know why you are all ragging on villain's sizing. Jamming seems like the optimal bet size given what each player's range looks like. Less than a jam misses value. If people are never calling with Kx against a jam then bluffing atc is printing money. For villain's whole range that wants to bet here, jamming seems optimal.

The reason not to jam with value hands is if villain thinks we will try to exploit him by folding our entire range to a jam. Then he should bet smaller for value and jam as a bluff. However the population doesn't over-fold like this in general. They over-call, so a jam for value seems good.

If I have QQ here in Villain's shoes, I actually don't like the big shove. Too good a chance we eliminate Kx and yet at the same time get snap looked up by better hands (and AQ/AJ/AT are still easily in play here). Seems a big overjam is targetting too specific a range (JJ/TT), even though he happens to be up against that hand here.

In general, I'm all for overjamming with ~nuttish hands, but I just don't think QQ is nuttish enough in this case.

GimoG

This is more elegantly & correctly what I was trying to say; if people are usually folding Kx to a jam here, V should be jamming his entire range (which includes almost no bluffs but plenty of Kx).

should've:
3bet pre
raise flop (get called)
check back turn
call vill's river lead

as played, I like the turn bet though I would've bet more (at least $100) and fold the river.