Villain (BTN): 20s white guy, tight passive; deals at Aria and knows I play aggressive ($250)
Hero (HJ): late 20s Asian guy, TAG image (covers)

Two limpers to hero who makes it $18 with AK in the HJ. Villain calls and one of the limpers calls.

Flop: TT5 ($56)

Checked through.

Turn: J ($56)

Limper checks. Hero bets $35. Villain calls. Limper folds.

River: K ($126)

Hero ???

Could just x/f. He's never bluffing or value betting worse. Or go for some super thin value. I beat so few hands though. KQ AJ QJ that's about it. I doubt 99 is gonna find a call.

How is betting AK on TT5JK considered super thin value? And x/f? Seriously?

We probably have the best hand unless he slowplayed a T which is unlikely.

He could easily have all the KQ or AJ combos that will consider calling a small to medium sized bet.

When you hit a K after betting turn and are going to be so afraid of monsters under the bed, why not just check turn?

Just bet $50.

Bet/fold 65$ Otr. Lol at c/f


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It's not about MUBS. It's about how there's so few hands he's calling that I actually beat and that a smart villain will know that I have like no bluffs on this river cause all my draws either got there or paired up.

After reading V’s description, I understand your concern and you’re probably right vs a tight passive V not being able to call with worse.

However, it would absolutely suck if you check and he decides to bomb it with a busted NFD or 98s type hand. Which is why I would bet/fold $50 and hope he makes a call with KQ/AJ.

Given V is never bluffing if you check. If a river bet is -EV when called then check. Seems like a river bet is -EV when called. One thing you might consider, if V is unlikely to call a bet then by betting you win the pot and don't have to show your hand because your opponent folded.

Preflop raise size for me is dependent on stacks. Like if everyone is sitting on $250- then easy peasy $25+ preflop to setup an easy stack off with TP postflop.

I might bet like 1/3 PSB on the flop and go from there. I don't hate a check.

Not sure I like our flop/turn line with just overs; I would like this line a lot more with a pair.

Yeah, against a tight passive player I don't hate a check/fold. But we do have an aggro image. I might bet super small just to attempt to get paid off (assuming a super small bet will never get played back at), like $20 (an ~hour's work). ETA: Having said that, he could have KQ (which will call a value bet and also likely make one himself if checked to), so I think I definitely like a small bet rather than a check/fold due to this hand being in the mix.

GcluelessNLnoobG

So I assume that V checked to us OTR?

If that is the case, then the real answer comes from what percentage of V's range will call that we beat vs the % we lose to AND the % that V cr/bluffs us off the best hand. We need to be good when called 51% of the time to make it a profitable bet in a vacuum.

I am a huge value hound and I think I bet b/f like $65 here. I can't see many V's playing a T this way and the runout is such that i don't find it all that likely we get bluffed, so we can safely fold to a cr. I think we get value from AJ, KQ, QJ maybe.

I think Villain has position (Button).

GcluelessNLnoobG

It would absolutely suck. But if it happens, good for him. He'll take the pot and be rewarded for not being a nit and actually playing poker. But 95% of the time that won't happen.

We are OOP like GG said so I think we need to be good 40%? It's definitely less than 50% but since villain is tight passive it's probably closer to 50%.

Anyways let's see then. In order for us to be beat, he would have to have checked back Tx and not raised the turn, checked back the flop with AQ (reasonable), flatted a hand like JJ KK or AA pre, checked back the flop then not raised the turn (unlikely) or just simply has KJ. That's a lot of ifs.

QJ is perfectly possible as played. As is AJ. KQ also makes sense. There's certainly more combos of hands that are beating us than hands we beat and there's a slight chance QJ/AJ can fold, but QJ AJ and KQ are much more likely given the action. Probably can go for some thin value here. Might as well take the higher variance option cause the pot isn't really that big and it makes me look more aggro and at the same time not easy to play against cause my river bets contain a lot of thin value.

I’ve never liked this argument. It’s NL - we can bet whatever amount we want. Villain is not inelastic to bet size in this spot meaning he’s not folding all hands whether we bet $3 or shove.

There is an amount where we can be good >50% of the time when called. My guess would be around $40-50.

My bad. OOP I think it is even more of a bet than IP as I doubt V would just call the turn with Tx, so it is likely he is afraid you have Tx, he has Jx, and is looking for cheap showdown. Anyway, I target Jx specifically and bet like $55 here.

Sounds results oriented. He called a flop bet and has lots of 1p hands here that might level down some calls bc of image/fd miss/K riv easy to be perceived as a bluffing card, not just bluffs that got there.

Make some sweat pour down his bald head and prepare to get nitrolled.

With a tight image raising a couple of the limpers in the HJ, a huge part of our range has hit something on this runout (including AK/AQ that finally got there). I'm not convinced he's levelling himself into a call with super worse (such as an underpair) much of the time, although with KQ in his range I'm certainly on board with a small bet/fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

seems like a clear spot to value bet.

KQ alone in V's range means we have to bet this river.

Did you miss when I said pretty much everything I'm betting has paired up or hit the draw? What flush draw do I have that goes check bet bet and hasn't paired up? No one is calling 88 here. That would be horrible spew.

So many people don't even get the line right when they comment on hands, which just makes for thread clutter. There was no flop bet. Hero semi bluffed turn (with possibly best hand anyway) and got called. Hero improved on river and needs to consider his options based on the V he is up against.

Ok, now that I've gotten that off my chest...

I like the hand as played so far, and will definitely be going for thin here against this type of player. Ez bet fold scenario for me. I like sizing to be slightly bigger than 1/3 pot in this thin value situation, but no bigger than 1/2 pot.

I'm only checking this spot against particular Vs, and it's 100% to Xcall their overbluffing tendencies.

I usually try to train V's to call bigger raises pre. I also always round to 5 once we get to 15+. I would have raised to 20. My goal would be to eventually be able to make raises to 25 and still get a caller.

OTF, I'm cbetting. Board is fairly hard to hit and we may well have the best hand, but it's vulnerable and we can't afford to give a free card to two V's, nor to encourage stabs that we're not going to want to call. We even pick up a little EV from better folding (e.g. small PP) or worse calling (e.g. the odd flush draw).

OTT, V tends to deny a big hand with his just-call (though V's will show up with surprisingly strong hands sometimes). Bare FDs and OESDs should be less likely to call on this board, though combo draws might well. I expect his range to be mostly hands like AJ, some KQ, maybe some FDs, and perhaps a monster or two (things like JT, TT, 55, perhaps another T)

OTR, I think if we don't have the best hand, it's going to be because V has KJ or the occasional monster he played weird. There are 9 combos of AJ and 8 of KQ (assuming he'd call the turn with an OESD + 2 overs on a paired/flush draw board). Even if we discount KQ, there should be enough worse hands that can call that we have a good value bet.

I think it's critical to size so that we get a crying call from AJ, since I think that's most of his worse calling range. I'd b/f 50.