1/3 I have about 550 to start and villain covers. Villain seems tight passive and hasn’t done much other then double barrel once and then fold to a raise. I’m in the straddle, everyone is straddling, pretty loose game. Middle position calls, villain on button makes it 20. Small blind and big blind call, I call with 10h7h and middle position calls also.

Flop (100) Ah4h5s

Checks to villain who bets 25. Small blind and big blind fold. I call and middle position call.

Turn (175) 7c

Checks to villain who bets 105. I call and middle position folds.

River (385) 8s

I check. Villain thinks for a decent amount of time, looks uncomfortable and bets 105 again. I jam for 400. Thoughts?

My thoughts are he has pocket aces

Preflop is pretty meh (both straddling and calling the raise), imo.

I also check/call the flop thanks to these great odds.

Turn is dicey. We're OOP (harder to get paid off on the river) plus we still have the other guy behind us (who could be sucking up some / a lot of our outs and could have just hit his OESD and be going for a check/raise). It's meh, imo.

I have no idea what to make of the river. Part of me thinks a donk bluff might be better although I'm not really sure. I'm super confused by Villain's betting. He bets a 1/4 PSB on the flop (WTF?), then amps it up to a decent sized bet 3ways on the turn to a not fantastic turn card, then still bets the river on a 4-to-a-straight (where even top set is often insta-checked back here)? I'm having huge trouble putting him on a hand here. In the end, I give the most weight to bigger street action, and he bet the turn multiway and this river, so I think we run into a straight too often.

ETA: Regarding AA, do they bet a lol 1/4 PSB on the flop on this drawy board against the world in a big bloated pot? Don't most passive players snap check back sets on 4-to-a-straight boards in huge pots with big stacks still behind? I think KQhh makes some sense on each street with the exception of the turn (wouldn't a passive player give up 3ways and happily take their free card)?

GcluelessNLnoobG

The vibe he gave off when he made the river bet I just never see him having a six here. I don’t see a lot of 6x hands in his range preflop here either. I thought it was aces at the time.

i don't like the bet because we are targeting like a-q, a-k but they have to be pretty optimistic to value bet this river with a-k, a-q where hundred people saw the flop and if they are overvalueing that much they might just call you down.

and if they don;t have ak or aq good luck getting someone to fold two pair or a set in live poker.

i think the turn is a better spot to bluff because maybe he has a-q, a-j maybe a-10 on turn. but the problem is ace high boards aren't great boards to bluff on because villians don't like folding their ace. so to me its one of those spots if i new my opponent was a good player i would be more likley to bluff than if it was a random who is never folding ace-king on the turn.

and you expect a random player to fold a set of aces?

Yea I thought he could fold a set of aces, pretty optimistic lol, but My feeling was it was a strong possibility. I thought he could have missed flush draws AK AQ also. I like a jam on the turn or donk bluff on the river also but I just feel I have all the straights here and there’s no way he can call. Prolly would have been better if I was a little deeper also.

Trying to bluff someone off a set of aces when the FD misses seems pretty optimistic. They're going to sigh and say "ok, if you got it you got it....I call"

Yea it was optimistic to think he would lay down a set especially since he had AK which is one of the hands I was targeting and he still sigh called after 10 min of tanking and somebody calling the floor. Maybe a donk jam on the river would be better.

this is a poor player, make notes from this hand. i think he inadvertently bet a merged range OTR lol

either way i would have just folded river, you should see him as repping strong here (before you found out how bad he is)

This hand is also further proof that nobody folds top pair when the obvious draw misses.

OP - I think if you’re continuing on the turn that you should be shoving instead of calling. Yeah he’ll have AA sometimes but you still have outs and he’s going to be in a very tough spot with AK AQ AJ AT, plus you’re balancing the times when you actually have it.

Good call by villain. You have so many busted flushes and so few 6x.

^^ya repping the 6 is meh

This is why I've concluded that if a four-to-a-straight comes in but the flush draws busts I pretty much call 100% of the time; almost everyone attempts to take this opportunity to bluff and yet very rarely will they have backed into the straight.

GcluelessNLnoobG