1/3 table has been playing fairly tight/passive with a few exceptions.

Hero: (MP, covers) LAG image, a known regular to all Vs.

V1: (HJ, $350) Very quiet young white guy who has played very tight so far and value bet big with big hands

V2: (button, $500) young white guy who is a low stakes pro. My best guess is that his range is often value heavy and he's not getting his stack in too light.

V3: (BB, $575) very straightforward reg, probably a break even or slight winner. Not likely to run huge bluffs or get out of line.

OTTH:
Hero opens to $13 with A9dd
V1 flats, V2 flats, V3 raises to $35.

Hero calls, V1 calls, V2 calls

Flop: KdQhJd

Dealer initially calls check for V3, hero and V1 check and then V3 says "I never checked" and is allowed to bet $75.

Hero calls, V1 folds, V2 makes it $175, V3 thinks for a minute and calls.

What is hero's move here? A back shove looks super strong and might get a fold from one. We can't fold given the crazy odds. Are we calling? If so how are we acting on various turns?

I wouldve folded preflop....but since we are here, by my count its $100 to you with a pot of $465 right? I think you have to call and pray. I dont see any FE here. I would be shocked if V2 doesnt 2 pair minimum.

The problem is that V2 is almost certainly shoving the turn.

I like a Jam. If we can get AK or AA to fold (which are V3's most likely holdings), it improves our pot equity quite a bit. We get to see both cards, and any miniscule fold equity just improves our overall equity (it's not completely out of the question that both Vs fold here, your raise is going to look really strong, and it's still going to be $300+ to call. Sets and straights are obviously calling but AA, AK, 2-pairs are possibly folding). If both call, you are never in terrible shape.

I think V3s range is: AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ

V2s range is: AK, KQ, QJs, KJs, 9Ts, ATs, JJ. QQ and KK are possible but discounted due to preflop action.

How often is a preflop raise going to narrow the field? Aren't we most likely simply going to result in OOP in a multiway pot (so not a good stealing setup) with a dominated hand? I'd typically just open limp this here.

Calling the preflop raise is very meh, imo. The two tight guys behind us could easily fold, so no longer getting better immediate or implied odds; plus if they do call, we'll be first to act after the preflop raiser most likely cbets (i.e. foreshadowing of how difficult it is to profitably chase draws sandwiched between a better and possible raisers behind us). Are we just calling here to somehow get BB off their obvious hand postflop? Which seems like it might be difficult to do if an A doesn't flop against his underpair, in which case, we're kinda calling to hit our A, which might be dominated? Meh.

If there is any question on whether V3 checked the flop, perhaps try to confirm with dealer before we act on the flop.

I'd probably also call the flop. BB probably has a huge hand which he's not going to fold, so let's just try to hit one of our bunch of outs. Course we run the risk of one of the guys behind us raising (one of the reasons preflop is meh).

I just think we have little FE here. I haven't done the math, but I'm guessing we have the odds to continue even just for our clean outs. I'd just call and hope to hit at this point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think it's a fold preflop. You're oop and at a tight table.

I think this is the bottom of my range for a raising hand and the bottom of my range to call a three bet. Still, I think it is a pretty clear call.

My defense for calling though is that the three bet is so small that I'm 99% sure both players will call behind. We are also pretty deep and we have position on the three better who we expect to play face up on the flop. With the players behind calling we are getting about 5.5:1 direct and will still have stacks of over $500 behind with OR. I think preflop is a call and frankly I think a fold would be pretty criminal.

EDIT: This is all about calling the three bet obviously. Open folding A9s here is ludicrous and I'm not going to even address it. limping is perfectly reasonable, I just don't do much open limping in general.

Your ranges are fine. His 3b sizing is laughable and makes me want to 4b but it's 1/3 so call and hopefully the others flat behind. Once you call flop, go ahead and back shove. Like you said the pot is huge, you have, 30ish%? against worst case scenario V2 ATs and V3 QQd. and of course they're a bit wider than this. You're also probably more comfortable than anyone pressing close spots for stacks, so they have some folding mistakes too even though FE is pretty minimal, but you'd take whatever you can get on that front.

If our FE is minimal (which I think most of us would agree it is given this action on this board), flatting seems to have more pros of (a) allowing us to exit if the board pairs on the turn and (b) *perhaps* getting a free card if everyone freezes up on the turn (and my guess is the chances of a free card on the turn >> both folding). Thanks to the awesome betsizing, we're already getting 5.65:1. And I believe we'll still be allowed to get to the river even if V3 shoves for about 1/2 PSB on a safe card.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Fold pre x2. A9s is too weak in MP. Despite the lol 3! size, I don't want to put any more money into a pot oop multiway with a weak hand against a strong range.

I think calling the flop both times is best. You're not in a great spot between a donk and the preflop 3bettor meaning your FE is slim to none. Without FE, you shouldn't raise, but your hand is too strong to fold. After the action the second time around, it becomes a pure odds play. You have the direct odds to hit the straight/flush on the turn alone, much less the river.

Hard to find any fold equity here. V2's range is now 2-pair++. V3 is AA, AK and sets. So shoving is simply gambling. If you feel like gambling, OK, just realize that sometimes you flush comes and still loses to a full house.

OTOH, price is right to call and see the turn. If the turn is a blank, pot is $665. If either V jams but not the other, price is not right to continue. If V2 jams and V3 check/jams, its $1320 in the pot and $355 to call. You have 7 clean flush outs plus 3 more T's for a Broadway. You need to be good 21.2% here. Against JJ and KQs, as an example, you have 23.8% equity so calling can be rationalized albeit very high variance and usually will lose.

Ironically it doesn't much matter from EV standpoint. Calling on flop, and calling if both jam on a blank turn are both pretty close to $0 EV plays. (Unless you or either V is prone to tilt after a negative high-variance outcome.)


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Yea, ranges really don't even matter anymore but what a coolerish flop given action.V2 better have 9Ts/ATs when he raises this small here unless he's just terrible.

So if we call the turn lets go through the scenarios:

1. Board pairs. If V3 donk shoves I assume we fold. Also a fold if it checks to V2, he shoves and then V3 shoves. If it checks to V2 and he shoves but V3 folds do we call?

2. Blank. Are we ever folding a blank turn?

3. Diamond. Are we shoving a diamond turn, or checking to V2?

4. 10. Shove or check?

If I were either V, and you were able to show your hand, I'd pay you a fine sum to fold your equity on a blank turn. I also think anything other than back-shove flop just creates problems. Are you folding a Qd turn? What about if turn is a J and it checks through bc Vs have AA, KQ/T9... River T/D may actually now carry FE which is rare, but worth mentioning. You got a great flop, call the first time and shove it when betting reopens and be sure you realize your equity.

You mention that calling flop and calling turn are both 0 EV. Not sure I agree, but let's look at EV of shoving flop. Here are the equities and ranges:

Hero: A9dd, 35.1%
V2: 10-9, A10, KQ, KJ, JJ, 41%
V3: JJ, QQ, KK, AK, AA, 23.9%

So if we are shoving $465 effective to win $1220 ($35 from V1, $500 from V2, $575 from V3, $110 in dead money from hero). That works out to an EV of +$127.

So why not shove? Is EV higher on future streets? How?

I said EV is near zero, not exactly zero. Didn't do the math for the turn, calling is $100 vs pot of $565, with 8 clean flush outs and 3 Broadway outs that either win or chop. 5.65-to-1 is def +EV with that many outs. River is closer.

Danger in shoving is reliance on both V's calling. V3 can fold his AA and AK. V2 can fold KQ and KJ. If only one of them calls, your equity doesn't really increase much at all... Still have to hit one of your outs, might gain one out if up against AT or T9.

So calculate your EV with only one caller.


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Let's say V2 calls your shove with range of ATs, JJ (to simply.... one straight, one set) but V3 folds. Your equity is 36.1%. Shoving $380 to win $845 now. I get EV of +$61. Still positive, a bit better than I would have guessed looking at this from a 30,000 foot level.

Still, risking $500 to win $61 is very high variance. Better have a deep bankroll and emotional reserves to make this play often.


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I'm done with it if the board pairs; I think (???) flatting the flop saved me a lot of money here.

I've lost track of pot size, but I think we're getting pretty close to the odds we need if we face a shove (I think the shorter stack is ez call, the bigger stack closer?), and easily the odds if we think the third guy will come to the river.

I'm shoving a non-pairing diamond / T. It's only for 1/2 PSB or so, right? No one is folding a set, two pair might convince themselves to call in this spot, we're freerolling if someone else has a T. Even if no one calls ever, our flop call of the reraise is still profitable due to us getting the immediate odds we need already.

Plus don't forget the great 5th case: a blank and the turn checks around (which it does a non zero percentage of the time when everyone freezes up with non-nut hands).

GcluelessNLnoobG