OK, everyone, he's better than we are. Stop telling him how badly he played this hand. Until river, which I'm sure he snapped off against an unknown 3bettor on a flushed/paired board for all-in who just happened to be bluffing.

Stop trolling everyone JN. You think that calling K10o 200 BBs deep is a disaster against a wide raiser, but you like calling with 910s against a tight raiser with 100 BBs in this thread? http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...42&postcount=7

Let's just admit that you've got something against me for some reason.

I have nothing against you. Not one poster agrees with you in this thread. Not one. I am not sure why you keep singling me out. Although you did write that you are better than all of us.

Is it because I was the first?

Oh, and in the post w/ 9T suited, other posters agreed with me (and I qualified my reasons). Do you really think calling KTo from BB to a 3bet against an unknown is the same as calling 9Ts OTB against a known player? I would love to have you at my table!

/thread

you seem to think that the number of people online that agree with you equates to how accurate your advice is.

+1

Thank you OP. Since your poker abilities are obviously so good you don't need the advice of the forum, I can only conclude that you posted this hand completely unselfishly so as to illuminate the blind masses as to a whole new way of playing poker that we clearly can't comprehend (yet). Your efforts are commendable, and your actions are truly honourable.

I posted it to get feedback and I never once said that I played the hand right or told anyone that their advice was wrong. All I ever did (if you actually read the thread which is kind of a challenge at this point since it got so long) was explain my thought process and ask questions. In return what I got was a lot of people that just wanted someone to insult based upon one hand rather than provide any actual analysis themselves. Not much of a surprise why the LLSNL forum is in such rough shape.

Fold pre.

'I can outplay him' is fish talk for 'I can't fold dominated hands preflop'. I think calling from BTN would be spew, calling from the blinds is worse.

The nice thing about playing 1/2 or 1/3 or whatever, is that people will make these kind of calls and not one of them good enough to make up for calling 10bb OOP vs. a range that crushes them. I'm not good at poker, so these rookie errors from the general population make my life a hell of a lot easier.

EDIT

Checking the rest of the thread, I can see this got covered by others. I can tell you that I pretty much skimmed the hand after preflop because I don't think the river is what really matters.

Well, GFY2

Hi, I'm not new to poker just new to posting on this forum.

It is clear that you read and study poker concepts which is the first step to winning poker. Based on your replies I read that you understand concepts but are non-succesfull in integrating them in your game. This might sounds harsh to you but i believe it is the reason why you are upset and consider the great advice as an insult.

So some notes and questions here:
1) I don't play KTo the way you do, under the circumstances you describe I would either fold or 4bet but never call.

The reason:
-calling is marginal, super-high-variance and in live games you will NEVER play enough hands to realise you EV. In order to get some $ value out of it you just need sheer luck that you win the first few times.
-This spot is so thin that one big mistake turns this into an EV- spot.
-your risk/reward ratio is way to low: after rake, tipping, maybe tax if you are unlucky you expect to win almost nothing. but you can significantly hurt your yearly income.
2) Under all assumptions you made in previous posts, your hand will ALWAYS be face up on the river. Every 1-3 player will overestimate the T-X in your range and act accordingly. Based on your reads you will create a situation where you exploit his actions. You didn't provide us this read yet. If you don't have that read, you can't move on him just yet meaning you have to fold pre.
- Outplaying: Inducing a river bluff vs Tx and therefore setting up your C/R sizing
so that you get decent odds vs his range to snap call every jam on the river.


some questions to help you before i range your opponent:
A) How many hands do you think he holds on the river that beat you and which ones. How many hands on the river do you beat. (all holdings not just those you think he jams). Count combos
B) Can you achieve a C/R size that set up the pot size in a way you can always call his bet on the river.
C) if B is possible, what is the EV of the hand.
D) Is the EV of C/R C C/Call or C/R C C/Fold > EV C/C C/C C/F (if v1 folds) or EV C/C check down or fold (if V1 overcalls flop)
E) Is the EV difference large enough to use this line vs a classic one
F) is the EV > folding pre (-3$)

Hope this helps, don't forget the rake and tip in you calculations

cheers,

MJ

Jay, thanks for the well thought out post, I appreciate it. I do want to clarify that I don't take offense at the advice, but rather the name calling. I understand that fold pre is the standard play and I'm not suggesting that I would regularly play this hand in the way that I did here. I don't begrudge people their 'fold pre' advice, I just think it should be joined by analysis of the rest of the hand.

I agree with most of what you posted above, except that my hand is face up by the river. I think the fact that I have a weak hand is face up by river, but I think that my range by the river is predominately flush draws of some sort. I rarely raise one pair hands and the villain has no reason to think that I am doing so here. So I think my hand on the river looks a lot like a bricked draw that I've given up with.

I think his range on the river (before the shove) looks like this:

JJ/QQ/J10s/Q10s/K10s/910s/AK-10hh/KQhh/KJhh/QJhh

That's 12 combos that beat me, 13 combos I beat and 1 chop combo

I also think that there's something like a 5% chance that he has a monster like 66, 1010, AA, KK that he played strangely and maybe a 5% chance that he has bizarre hands like 78s, 47s, or maybe even AKo. I don't know how to range these extremes because I think it is extremely unlikely he has these hands and if I start giving him every 47, 78, AK, etc. I am obviously creating too wide a range.


If I've ranged him correctly I think that any c/r on the flop will create a shove that I can call on the river, if he checks the turn. Even a min c/r on the flop sets up a pot of $330 when he has $400 behind. If he is shoving his entire range articulated above, it will always be profitable to call. The question then becomes IS he shoving his whole range?


I don't think we have enough information to calculate this. If we did, we would never need anything but a calculator to play poker. We need to understand how often he is betting turn and we are folding, as well as what part of his river range he is shoving. Am I missing something, do you think we can get the EV of the hand without making large assumptions?

fold pre

OP, this is the type of hand where you should examine your thought process. It seems like you can't decide whether you are value betting or bluffing.
1. Preflop - if you really think V1 is wide and V2 is weak (meaning you can remove JJ+ from his 3! range), 4-bet squeezing is probably better than calling. But let's say you call to keep dominated hands in, which in this case would be T's mostly, not K's, right? Then...
2. You got the best possible flop you can ask for, T high with a draw. If V2's one-pair range is AT-, you flopped gin, and should only worry about sets and AT (and you block both sets and TPTK). You get value from a variety of T's, maybe underpairs, and all draws, so you should definitely check -raise.
3. But it seems like on the turn, you aren't really thinking you're value betting, because you're saying now I'm bluffing this guy off an overpair...

If he really does have a bunch of overpairs in his range, then you shouldn't have called preflop. I think it's pretty obvious to everyone that if V2's range is AQ+,JJ+, you should fold KTo OOP. No amount of "I'm going to outplay this guy" makes up for such a huge hand value deficit.

And if you think his range is just wide, that he's 3-betting a bunch of his hands, and it includes overpairs, Tx, air and a bunch of draws, the line about repping a set still makes no sense to me. One: Generally, people who 3bet wide ranges don’t fold overpairs, because they realize they have to stack off lighter than your average player. Two: If you think his calling range is JT+,JJ+ and a bunch of draws, the 6 is one of the best possible turn cards for you, because it's not an overcard to your T and it doesn't complete a draw. If the 6 was not a heart, you’d have more to think about, because pair+flush draw just got there, but that’s not the case here. 6x is ahead of you now, but how much of a concern is it really? Does V2 really call a c/r with 6x?

As played, ship the turn. Your hand looks like a draw that bricked the turn, and if villain has a worse made hand, he's calling.

If you check the turn, that has to be because you are checking to induce. And if your plan was to snap call the turn, but instead you get to a blank river, and you check, it has to be to snap call the river. So as played, call the river.

ITT, you are trying to have it both ways. You're saying that he has overpairs when you feel like the action is getting too heavy, but then he's also weak with his min raise to justify the preflop call. You have to pick one or the other, and then it becomes very clear what to do. You either fold preflop, or you keep putting your chips over the betting line until you have none left.