7-handed

Preflop:
HJ ($560): Hero raises to $10 with J5
BU ($1200): Calls

Flop ($24): 862
HJ bets $10
BU calls

Turn ($40): 8624
HJ bets $30
BU calls

River ($100): 8624Q
HJ action?


My thoughts:
1. I basically put BU on 8x or A8 exactly
2. Less likely for BU to have a flush draw (due to Turn call), unless BU also had a combo draw which means -
3. Let's talk blockers. I don't block a few combo draws like Ad7d, 9d7d, Td7d, KdQd, QdTd - so let's say half of these hands call a River bet and half fold to a bet.
4. Therefore, is there an amount I can bet on the River to make HJ fold A8/8x?


Cheers

I just fold preflop. HJ is pretty overrated as (a) we still often end up OOP (the only thing that matters regarding position) and (b) we still have half the table to react preflop.

I'm ok with a semi-bluff on the flop.

I'm on the fence about the turn. We've picked up more semi-bluffing equity, but the turn card ain't scary at all. I might size smaller to give us decent odds while still making a bet that threatens a third bet on the river (so we can still get some folds here even to a smaller bet). Nothing wrong with checking, especially since another bet will probably force us to triple barrel UI.

It's unlikely we're going to win with J high. At least the river is slightly scary as we coulda backed into TP with some barrelling hands. If I get here, I likely barrel another one, probably like $65 which is valuey and hard to call at the same time.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Need V profile in order to answer.

Mostly pre is spew, and flop and turn are fine. Whether river is a give up of triple is very V dependent.

Preflop: Yikes. Pure yikes. If you're opening J5s, you're probably opening around 50% from the HJ. Even against live 1/3 players who are incapable of exploiting this, this is losing money.

Rest of the hand is whatever. You're probably not even repping KK/AA anymore to go bet bet bet so you might as well bomb it here.

But really, this all starts with preflop. FOLD. Play preflop correctly. Then you aren't sitting here with J hi as often questioning if you can get him off one pair.

Depends on what you think you are targeting on flop and turn.

If you're targeting draws, then a reasonable bet would take it.

If you're targeting draws with some SD value, then a 3/4 bet or higher might be necessary.

If you're targeting bluff catcher, then the sizing of river bet would obviously have to be bigger (but I am not suggesting that it is good to even bet in this spot).

And rest of V's range is pretty much going to call any bet you make.

Without more information, I would probably go with 3/4.

FYI, I almost never open J5 here, but CO was tight, and so were SB and BB.

I might do it 1/100 times if 9-handed...and this was 7-handed (in case anybody missed that).

Villain was running good that night, but not spewy; he basically played to the strength of his cards.

He also knows that I am on the tighter side of the spectrum.

every street is spew

I dunno.

GG's response makes me think that only pre was truly spew.

But then again, his failure to mention SPR is worrisome.

Maybe his account has been hijacked?

i hate everything about this hand.
i don't like you playing J5dd pre, I don't like your preflop sizing, I don't like your flop sizing, I don't like your turn sizing, and on the river we're set up to bomb it but the pot is pretty small so what does "bomb it" even mean?

look we've already completely butchered this hand so on the river just bet $200 and if you get called then flip over your napkins and then stare at the sky until it's your turn to act on the next hand so you can advertise and build an image of being an insane person which might pay off for you later the more you play in this casino.

SPR is large, so not horrendous spot to consider a 3barrel postflop SPR-wise. An SPR of around ~13 (or a little less) might be a little better since the second barrel will often setup a stack threatening bet by the river, but still even in a large SPR pot most people don't like calling 3barrels with just one pear. Would likely be horrible to attempt in a small SPR pot where the second bet is for stacks and the opponent will consider themselves committed.

I think there is an argument for this line here postflop, but I'll admit it's typically not one I take.

GcluelessNLnoobG

7-handed vs. 9-handed makes no practical difference. You are in the HJ. You should open the same range 7-handed from the HJ as you would 9-handed from he HJ.

Hero believes that 2 fewer players folding before his turn to act would strengthen his perceived range, and the 2 players behind yet to act is weaker in the 7-handed game than in the 9-handed game.

Still massive spew pre

I actually considered a 1-1.5x bet on the River to make it look like I rivered QQ.

Can 8x-JJ hero call here?

Its low limit, they can call with any pair or even Ace high cos they're stations

Seriously imo you need an active read that villain can fold to a third barell, otherwise defaulting to them being a station is what we should do.

Oh and pre is spew, but you knew that anyway.

Of course.

Pre is spew as mentioned by others.

As played the flop is fine. Continuing on the turn when you pick up more outs is also fine. Although you aren't repping much on that turn. I'd size down my turn bet here. If he has naked overs or whiffed backdoor draws, he'll fold for $15-$20. If he has a pair or picked up outs on the turn, he's calling $30, so smaller seems better.

There is no reason to put villain on such a tight range on the river. But I do agree it's unlikely he's very strong here. There are tons of straight draws he can have as well. You might not be able to get A8+ to fold very often, but he can have a lot of weaker 8's, some 67/56, plus some other busted draws with a better high card. Unless V is a major station, I think it's a fine spot to fire a 3rd barrel. I'd go a bit over 1/2 pot. No need to go too big here. If he calls I'd just shrug and take note of what he had.

Not sure if you understood what I wrote.

Range of bluff catchers that will call is likely correlated to size of river bet with a minimum somewhere around 3/4 pot (IMO).

So the stronger his bluff catcher is, the higher the bet would need to be for him to fold.

Plus it is also important to evaluate the composition of his range at this point. If you think it's mostly bluff catchers and slowplaying hands, then you should consider whether it is even worthwhile to fire.

Turn sizing is also problematic if that's the case, because clearly you created a situation where you're not folding out anything with the turn bet. Without fold equity, there is more value in seeing the river cheaper than essentially maximizing value for your opponent.

Interesting points; noted.