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Old 04-12-2017, 06:17 AM   #1
fizzypants
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1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

1/3, lots of action from V1 and V2 who are loose/fishy..

V1 (EP, $400) is kind of very stationy, likes to call all draws, little tricky sometimes, bluffs sometimes, there to donate his money..

V2 (MP2, $800) is slightly more sophisticated, but rather lucky than good.. he likes to chase a lot as well.. however, big bets = big hands...

Hero (CO, $350) pretty snug, card dead..


V1 limps, V2 raises to $20, Hero calls with TT, V1 calls, 1 other caller somewhere in the sky..

Flop ($80): T 9 7
V1 checks, V2 bets $25, Hero raises to $110, V1 calls, V2 calls

Turn ($410): 8 (FML)
V1 shoves, V2 overshoves, Hero ?

This looks like a clear fold since I'm calling to just boat up, but Snowie thinks this is a call 100% of the time??

Probably just being results-oriented but is there a case to be made for going bigger postflop to a commitment threshold where we can't fold any turn? Even if we make it $150, I still don't feel committed on that dirty turn facing 2 shoves. Also, going $25 to $150 seems a bit excessive even with $80 in the middle pre although it's only a ~pot-sized raise.

FWIW, V1 had Jx, and V2 had QJo for the nuts. I would have boated up OTR and scooped a $1k pot OBV.

Can someone please work out the math for me if we give the straight to both Vs?

Last edited by fizzypants; 04-12-2017 at 06:27 AM.
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Old 04-12-2017, 06:22 AM   #2
MK7749
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

ez fold. thank the lord u lost minimum.
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:06 AM   #3
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

You boat up or make quads about 23% of the time. This assumes that nobody else has a piece of the board. If V1 has J9, for example, then your odds go down slightly, since he has one of your outs.

But on the turn, you only need to call $220 to win a pot of $1200. If my math is correct, this means that you only need to win roughly 18% of the time. So...you will usually lose, but you're getting the odds to call. Snowie is right.
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:54 AM   #4
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

This is a snap call, high five the dealer, give the waitress a kiss.
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:58 AM   #5
Okilo
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1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acquittal View Post
You boat up or make quads about 23% of the time. This assumes that nobody else has a piece of the board. If V1 has J9, for example, then your odds go down slightly, since he has one of your outs.

But on the turn, you only need to call $220 to win a pot of $1200. If my math is correct, this means that you only need to win roughly 18% of the time. So...you will usually lose, but you're getting the odds to call. Snowie is right.

Something about these numbers seem off. You have 350 so you can only win a max of 1050 if you triple up, not 1200. So you're calling 220 to win 1050. That is 20.9% pot odds.

However, according to http://www.suntzupoker.com/poker-odds.aspx it's actually 21.7% but that doesn't change anything. You will lose most of the time and it will feel bad, but you lose more ev by folding in this situation. This is not being results oriented. If you had folded and then missed your FH then it would still be a mistake because ev trumps all in cash games. 0.8% ev in this cases is 0.008*1050=$8.4 of ev each time you're in this situation. About as thin as it gets but you have to be willing to take variance in cash.


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Old 04-12-2017, 09:02 AM   #6
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Would call it off with your stack size all day long, since all the action is complete and you dont even have to guess peoples ranges as it is pretty simple to know they both ahve a Jx it is really a maths question and math says you have to call

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Old 04-12-2017, 10:53 AM   #7
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Using Snowie for a simple pots odd decision is like bring a bazooka to a knife fight.
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Old 04-12-2017, 11:53 AM   #8
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

2401130=21%

You have roughly 19%-23.5% given their JX ranges.

Call or fold, doesn't matter. Neither gain or lose must edge in spots like this.

I enjoy the variance. So get it in and have some fun.

Heck, once in blue moon. You will actually be ahead in this spot also.

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Old 04-12-2017, 12:06 PM   #9
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
Using Snowie for a simple pots odd decision is like bring a bazooka to a knife fight.
This.

We need 20.5% equity. Even considering that they sometimes have 1 or more of our outs, it's a clear call.
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Old 04-12-2017, 12:30 PM   #10
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

What's Snowie?

As others have said, pot odds make this close between a call and a fold based solely on our odds to boat/quad up. Add in the fact that some very small percent of the time we're ahead v. a couple of sets or two pair or flush draws or something, and we may have outs to chop if a J hits, I think this is a call.
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Old 04-12-2017, 12:56 PM   #11
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

If I've done the math right, it looks like we're getting 4:1 on a call, which is right around the breakeven mark *if* all our outs are good. If anyone is sucking up any of our outs, and we can assume we're behind (I *think* we can?), then it would be a fold. Really depends on what percentage of the time we're ahead here (which I'm assuming is zero, but that's probably overly pessimistic).

ETA: Might be helpful for OP to spell out the variables next time, but I computed we're being asked to call $220 to win $900, which is about 4:1. Someone correct me if my variables are off. ETA#2: Actually, it looks even worse, it looks like we're being asked to call $220 to win $850, which is slightly less than 4:1. Looks like we need 20.5%, which again is right around border line *if* all our outs are clean *and* we're behind. Meh.

ETA: I also didn't factor in that a J perhaps chops things, which makes things closer.

GcluelessSnowienoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 04-12-2017 at 01:02 PM.
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Old 04-12-2017, 01:21 PM   #12
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

I'm calling here. We're basically break-even (sometimes a little worse, sometimes a little better) to ship a massive pot.

Neither decision is really better or worse imo. I enjoy the gambool in these situations. Also think it's good for the game.
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Old 04-12-2017, 01:39 PM   #13
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

It is very slightly +EV to call, depending on the specific ranges you give them. There is a very slim chance V1 is semi-bluffing and V2 has a set and you're actually good, too.

If you fold and find out you would have shipped a big pot you end up feeling like a fool, so when in doubt, call.
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Old 04-12-2017, 03:52 PM   #14
MK7749
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

**** didnt see stacks correctly.

call. haha.
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Old 04-12-2017, 04:17 PM   #15
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

I honestly don't think the 8 helps them as often as you think. They're calling a big raise with a gutter? Fine if that's the case. This is a no brainer call it off. As others have said, even vs. the nuts younhave your odds to call.
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:08 PM   #16
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If anyone is sucking up any of our outs, and we can assume we're behind (I *think* we can?), then it would be a fold.
So then if nobody has our outs, then our odds of hitting are actually better than calculated......

You see why we can't make assumptions about whether our outs might or might not be held? It works both ways.
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Old 04-12-2017, 08:24 PM   #17
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

How are people calculating pot size if we call? Ignoring the blinds, isn't it just 3*350 + 20 = 1070?

I plugged in a range of J8o+/J6s+ for both, removing J8o/J8s for V1 assuming he would have check/shoved flop with those. With TT, you have 23.3% equity against those ranges. As someone mentioned above, your odds are probably a tiny bit higher on the off chance neither has a straight or you can chop with a J.

You need to call $220 to win $1070, or 20.6% of the time.

Are you rolled for the variance? If yes, call. If you can't stomach it, it's hardly a terrible fold.
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Old 04-12-2017, 09:18 PM   #18
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnivore View Post
So then if nobody has our outs, then our odds of hitting are actually better than calculated......

You see why we can't make assumptions about whether our outs might or might not be held? It works both ways.
That's not how it works.
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Old 04-12-2017, 10:10 PM   #19
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
That's not how it works.
Our odds of making a boat on the river are 10/46

He's suggesting that if one or more of our opponents in holding our outs, than our odds are worse, such as 9/46 or 8/46.

My point is that this is a nonsensical addition, that is offset by the fact that if our opponents hold none of our outs, out hand would be 10/42 to hit.

Unknown cards are unknown cards.

10/45 is actually the only number that matters assuming we are behind. Because if you really want to get technical, then if we're behind, someone has to have either a J or a 6, so essentially one more card is known, therefore if we are behind, we can actually use 10/45.

Odds of making a boat 10/46
Odds of making a boat assuming we're behind at least one player 10/45

Also, if nobody has QJ or Qx, there are also 1 to 3 potential chop outs on the river. Add all this up, and our equity looks to be slightly stronger than 10/45. There's always a chance one villain has AQ of clubs and another has 99, or several other odd little situations like that. We have one club for whatever thats worth. Our pre-rake/tip/bbj equity in this hand is probably closer to 25%. Factor in the rake/tip/bbj if this is a live game and folding/calling probably are about equal.

Last edited by Carnivore; 04-12-2017 at 10:25 PM.
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Old 04-12-2017, 10:41 PM   #20
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Isn't it $220 to win just $850 in the middle? Why are we adding our $220 to the pot? Makes no sense although I know the math says to add our call to the pot.
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Old 04-12-2017, 10:45 PM   #21
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

It's 220, to take part in a 1070 pot.

So our odds of winning have to be 220/1070 or better.

Here's a simplification. There's 1 in the pot. Our opponent bets 1. We have to call 1, to win 2. We need 1/3 to make the call.
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Old 04-12-2017, 10:51 PM   #22
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

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Originally Posted by Carnivore View Post
It's 220, to take part in a 1070 pot.

The pot is $850, why are we adding our imaginary call?
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Old 04-13-2017, 10:36 AM   #23
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
The pot is $850, why are we adding our imaginary call?
If there were a $2 pot and somebody wagered $1, we would call our pot odds 3 to 1. That is we are risking $1 to win $3. Also expressed as 3:1. We should make the call in that case when we expect to win more than 1/(3+1) = 25% of the time.

Consider the break even case... 25% * 3 + 75% * (1) = 0

Similarly, when the odds are 850:220, we should call when we expect to win more than 220/(850+220).

If I thought this was close, the math I would do at the table would be 220/(220*3+410) = 220/1070 which is approx 209/1017 or a little under 21%.
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Old 04-13-2017, 10:40 AM   #24
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

At the table, I don't think of a situation as 3:1, I jump right to 25%. But that is a personal preference, many do the decision making by expressing the situation mentally as 3:1.
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Old 04-13-2017, 10:42 AM   #25
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Re: 1/3: Snowie suggesting to call with top set on 4-to-straight facing two shoves?

But most do the decision making as, flush draw, I call.
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