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Old 10-23-2017, 05:10 PM   #1
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Perpetually wandering
Posts: 261
1/3 - Should I be raising this river facing an unexpected overbet?

Trying again to post this as I screwed it up enough the first time to make answers worthless.

Of course this is always villain dependent, but I was wondering how many of you all would shove river in general in this situation.

Villain has been at my table ~ 5 hours by now. Mid-20s WG, hat & headphones. A little loose pre (high VPIP), but not really any 3bets that I can remember. Fairly tight, not crazy post, don't recall any overbets or even bets > $100.

1/3 Hero (HJ) ~600 6 6 raise 15
Villain (BTN) covers calls 15

Flop (~33) 9 6 2
Dry flop, so I just bet 15, V calls (A9? K9? 89? 9T? 78? 99?)

Turn (~63) - 9 6 2 3
Still not too threatening (45 gets there, but meh) so I bet 30, V calls

River (~123) - 9 6 2 3K (gets there - backdoor A9/89/9T/78, worse heart draws that I doubt he would still be playing by the river, can't see set of 9's or KK as certainly he would have raised on flop or turn, even if he was kind of passive post). So I am mainly worried about K9 or backdoor A9/89/9T/78 hearts, all of which beat me except K9. There are other possibilities I beat also such as 96/A9/AK(not hearts). I decided to check to induce with a plan for c/r (despite all the possibilities, I still thought I was likely ahead) - I had noticed his tendency to attack perceived weaknesses and he had seen me barrel and double-barrel many times over the hours, most of the time succeeding (no show), but sometimes giving up when pushed back (and I had nothing).

So anyway, I check the K river intending to c/r, but he bets $150. I was expecting 75-90, which I was going to raise to 200-275. The big overbet threw me off and as high as 150 it really did make not sense to do anything other than shoving giving what I had behind.

Would you all shove or only call with all the possible back door flushes. The shove would be for ~400 more into ~270. He only calls with high flushes & folds most else, right?

Or should I have played differently thoughout?
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Old 10-23-2017, 05:18 PM   #2
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 383
Re: 1/3 - Should I be raising this river facing an unexpected overbet?

No, you absolutely can't raise. It's more of a cry call spot if you call. I think I would fold though.
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Old 10-23-2017, 05:38 PM   #3
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 477
Re: 1/3 - Should I be raising this river facing an unexpected overbet?

His overbet is highly polarized. Just call. He will not have anything to call you with that you can beat.

I wouldn't fold though. He's repping a BDF and likes to attack weakness. Still, he doesn't get out of line much, and he shouldn't have much to bluff with. (8 combo's of 78 and 9 combo's of K9). I would think all his other 9-x as well as JJ and 10's just want to see show down. Elaborate bluff line w/ air possible but highly unlikely. I'm calling but not loving it.
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Old 10-24-2017, 03:44 AM   #4
Shai Hulud
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Tampa
Posts: 1,934
Re: 1/3 - Should I be raising this river facing an unexpected overbet?

If I were V I would call a 1/2 pot C-bet with as little as a backdoor flush draw like QJ or perhaps even 54. You shouldn't have a ton of hearts in your range. When the turn brings the 3 54 got there and the other heart draws aren't folding to 45 OTT given stack depths.

I don't like checking the river...planning a check-raise for value on a 3-flush board with a set is hopeless. If villain is bluffy you could check hoping busted draws bet, except a lot of draws got there. I honestly see no reason not to bet like 100 here. If villain ships just credit him with the flush and fold.

AP it's hard to tell if he has you beat and is betting for value, senses weakness and thinks he's thin value betting something like K9 (not hearts), or senses weakness and decides an overbet will fold all non-flushes. If the guy is good and knows you pay attention it's a great spot to bluff. BUT...we've never seen him overbet bluff. Still, you say he likes to attack perceived weakness so personally I probably call here and then sigh when he shows hearts.

Last edited by Shai Hulud; 10-24-2017 at 03:57 AM. Reason: Misread something
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Old 10-24-2017, 09:12 AM   #5
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 2,171
Re: 1/3 - Should I be raising this river facing an unexpected overbet?

Can't raise. But calling pretty quickly.
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