Of course this is always villain dependent, but I was wondering how many of you all would shove river in general in this situation.

Villain has been at my table ~ 5 hours by now. Mid-20s WG, hat & headphones. A little loose pre (high VPIP), but not really any 3bets that I can remember. Fairly tight, not crazy post, don't recall any overbets or even bets > $100.

1/3 Hero (HJ) ~600 66 raise 15
Villain (BTN) covers calls 15

Flop (~33) – 962
Dry flop, so I just bet 15, V calls (A9? K9? 89? 9T? 78? 99?)

Turn (~63) - 9622
Still not too threatening so I bet 30, V calls

River (~123) - 962K (gets there - backdoor A9/89/9T/78, worse heart draws that I doubt he would still be playing by the river, can't see set of 9's or K's as certainly he would have raised on flop or turn, even if he was kind of passive post). So I am mainly worried about K9 or backdoor A9/89/9T/78 hearts, all of which beat me except K9. There are other possibilities I beat also such as 96/A9/AK(not hearts). I decided to check to induce with a plan for c/r (despite all the possibilities, I still thought I was likely ahead) - I had noticed his tendency to attack perceived weaknesses and he had seen me barrel and double-barrel many times over the hours, most of the time succeeding (no show), but sometimes giving up when pushed back (and I had nothing).

So anyway, I check the K river intending to c/r, but he bets $150. I was expecting 75-90, which I was going to raise to 200-275. The big overbet threw me off and as high as 150 it really make not sense to do anything other than shoving giving what I had behind.

Would you all shove or only call with all the possible back door flushes. The shove would be for ~400 more into ~270. He only calls with high flushes & folds most else, right?

Thoughts throughtout?

Do we not have a boat or what

No way you can shove if we don't beat a flush.

Either your post has a typo or you need to brush up on hand rankings.

You have a boat dude

Ummm, shove.

Did you mean the turn was a 3?

If the board is really 9622K as you say, then we should be jamming our boat here for value against flushes.

I would mostly open limp here. One reason is my table plays fairly loose preflop, so even an open raise in the HJ is likely to go multiway (where I might as well limp if I'm going to be setmining). Secondly, an open in the HJ is a pretty obvious open, which leaves yourself open to facing a 3bet OOP, which we'd rather not do; I'd much rather weakly limp/call with these stacks (where we'll have lots of room to move postflop). I'm also perfectly fine with seeing a multiway limped pot in position and perhaps inviting in some blinds, especially if they are weak. Also not totally love with the result since now we've juiced the pot to make it easier to play for big stacks if we flop and set, but you really have to ask yourself whether that is a good thing against this opponent.

I'm also betting the flop, and also for a smallish amount. I'm really towing the line here between trying to get money in the pot for value while at the same time trying to keep the pot under control against this guy.

As I writing up this in real time, I realize how nitty my advice is going to sound, but it really comes down to what type of game you play in and what type of opponent this guy is. This guy ain't ******ed, right? So if not, this is a pretty bad turn. 99/22 are two of the biggest hands that continue on the flop, and now they are both ahead of you. Is he going to be calling two more bets with 77 or whatever crap? Probably not. Is he capable of floating with air and maybe making a move on the turn? If he slowplayed a big pair, or had 9x, would he likely bet the turn? Would he fold an OESD on the turn to a bet, but perhaps bet it himself as a semi-bluff if checked to? So all told, I think I would much rather check/call this turn than bet, especially if a bet might get a fold a lot of the time, or possibly even worse, face a raise (where we'll have a really tough decision, imo). So game/opponent dependent, but I might check this turn here. If you're up against ******, of course just keep betting and never fold.

On the river, I'd probably lean towards bet/fold. I doubt he's calling the turn with a draw unless his OESD picked up a flush draw which got there. He'll probably insta-check back stuff like 77 but *might* consider paying off a bet. If he raises on a paired board, he simply has a full house+, and every one of those beats us, so we probably can make a hero fold. I wouldn't be check/raising the river (not enough draws busted for him to bluff, it's unlikely he got to the river on a draw, he's not going to payoff a check/raise); this is why I'd more check the turn.

As played, I just call the river. There's a decent chance we're beat, but showing weakness like this I think we have to call, especially since he can easily be doing this for value once we check (2x, flush, Kx that somehow got there, etc.).

GcluelessNLnoobG

GG, I know you enjoy being a super nit and fighting the rake for scraps. If that's what makes you happy in life then cool dude, no judgment.

But your advice is silly and terrible and you really shouldn't be typing up these essays to encourage people to play that way.

OP needs to clarify the action and board as there are multiple contradictions. Does OP have sixes full of deuces? Just a set of sixes? Did the flush get there or not? And how does K9 and other hands beat a set of sixes?

He made another thread with a correction.

Maybe point out the stuff you disagree with?

My advice on this hand is based on the read that our opponent seems to be tight and know what he's doing. If he's a hurp durp ******, whatever just bet/bet/bet and don't fold (as I stated).

Gopponentdependent,imoG

So the range *this* opponent is willing to call the turn with is larger than the range he's willing to bet himself if we check to him?

Gnope,imoG

It's 1/3. People are massive stations and incredibly passive postflop. Have you really not noticed that in the thousands of hours you've played this game?

You flop the second nuts on a dry board and want to pot control...what?

Maybe it's because the only game that runs in my room 99% of the time is 1/3 NL, but this attitude irks me. If you want to lump every single player who plays poker in my room into one category simply because "lolz @ 1/3", then you're free to do so at your own risk.

I've based my line on this thread against this opponent. Admittedly, it's "only" been 5 hours with him at the table, and I wasn't there, and it's sometimes difficult to get a real handle on a read given the three sentences we're given. But that's what we have. If somehow you've translated that information into we're up against a hurp durp moran, then we've simply come to different conclusions given the information at hand.

And yes, he absolutely could station worse hands on the turn. But, he could fold those, especially the weaker end of the range, especially if he's been keeping a keen eye on how many hands we've raised preflop and double barrelled. And yet all of those hands he's stationing, he's probably going to bet when we check (I mean, he's not going to give our obvious AK a free card, right?), plus he'll bet a lot more hands (air / OESD that was floating and is now trying to take about the pot from our obvious AK) and most of those hands likely fold to a bet.

GimoG

You talk as if someone just has to be a super OMC nitbox to qualify as competent.

Let's construct a range for a player who is loose pre-flop and extremely weak-tight post-flop.

Let's say on the flop he'll call with any top pair plus, and 87s.

Let's say on the turn he'll call only with A9+ or a strong draw.

By the turn his calling range is something like {QQ (3), JJ (6), TT (6), A9 (12), Kh9h-9h7h (6), 8h7h (1)} that we beat, and {99 (3), 22 (1)} that we lose to. We beat 34 combos and lose to 4.

IMO this range is unrealistically tight, yet we are still crushing it. If someone is such a huge nit that he's folding K9 to a half-pot turn barrel, then he's probably not betting it either.

The way you think this player plays really just makes him a different kind of hurp durp moran. I would absolutely love to play with a table full of them.

If you're really just trying to say that villain will put more money in the pot on average when we check to him than when we bet into him, then stop talking about pot control, because we lose to 4 combos and have only raised pre and made a half pot c-bet so far.