7 handed

V1 (MP): 30s Asian guy, crazy whale who plays 95% of hands and made a $400 overbet shove into a $150 pot, donk overbet $300 into a $200 pot with a rivered ten high flush on a paired board, but otherwise seems to prefer to drive the aggression himself postflop instead of reacting to aggression with aggression; in other words, I haven't seen him raise postflop (covers both)

V2 (SB): 50s brown guy, passive and stationy; raised $75 with TT when V1 straddled and two players limped, snapped his $350 shove and lost to KQo ($500)

Hero (UTG): late 20s Asian guy, nitty image ($600)

Hero opens to $20 UTG with 99. Villains call, BB calls.

Flop: K96 ($75)

Checked to hero. Hero bets $55. Both villains call.

Turn: Q ($240)

V2 checks. Hero ???

I'm unlikely to get raised here unless villain has a flush. I can bet small, get called by worse and evaluate river. Or I can x/c and lead a paired river or x/c again possibly on a blank vs V1. Only sick thing would be if V1 shoves. If V2 shoves I can get away but bet folding a set can't be good. Does help that I have a club blocker.

Interesting spot.

There’s probably about 14 combos that you can get value from and deny reasonable equity (20% maybe) with a small bet. Hands like KJ/KT/QJ/QT/T9/J9 with a club.

There’s probably about 36 combos of pair+gutters without a club that you can get one street of value. It probably doesn’t matter which street as your hand isn’t terribly vulnerable to this range.

There’s probably about 30 combos of flush/straights that you’re behind and have about 20% equity vs.

You’re probably ahead of more than half the calling range, but I’m not sure that alone warrants a bet. When you bet, you’ll always give their 20% equity when ahead but often fold yours when behind. And since the bulk of the range you can probably still get value from on the river after blank cards, I’m wondering if checking is better?

Clear check against 2 people on the turn. The problem with betting small OTT is:

a) they’ll fold everything that’s behind except exactly KQs when you fire again into two ppl.

b) if you bet $75 and one of them raises to $300, it’s a really gross spot.

The good thing here is that the SB overcalled OTF so he’s more likely to be on the flush draw rather than the V in position who should be more TP heavy IMO. You can definitely check call turn if he bets (and maybe even check/fold if SB checkraises him before it gets to you) and if turn checks through and SB bombs it on a brick river, we can safely fold.



Edit: Just read that V1 MP is a “crazy whale” which means we can definitely get calls from worse if we bet small OTT, but I still dislike it because of the SB still being in the hand.

Very clear check. V1 being a "crazy whale" doesn't really matter, you're just as likely to get value checking to him as betting.

+1 to check. FWIW I would often check a flush to this kind of player. If you think he's getting out of line you can just c/c a bet, I think he'd have a tough time bluffing river in that case.

Also a minor nitpick I would size up on a flop like this because most of the deck is not good for you, and if the whale is calling $55 then he will probably call $75+ too.

I would just limp preflop. Think the biggest benefit to raising is so that it brings stacks into play if we hit (which we're cool with).

SPRs is about 8 and flop is drawy and we're against at least one loose player. Stacks will easily be in play with 2 PSBs to setup a river shove. So I PSB (perhaps even PSB+) the flop. I think we're missing decent value here doing anything less, but that's me.

Fairly gross turn, especially against two players. I probably check/call. I think betting and getting raised (i.e. shoved on) would be such a gross spot (and yet an outcome that is decently likely) and I'm simply trying to avoid that spot. If need be I would much rather check/call a big bet than bet/call one as our hand is at least underrepped.

GcluelessNLnoobG

+ 1 although I think even moreso because V1 is a crazy whale. Last thing we want is for him to shove over us and have to fold. I like x/c line OTT and evaluate river (bet paired board, either x/c or x/f others, depending on if we are HU or still 3way).

Can definitely fold to a shove from V2. Debatable whether I can fold to V1. This guy is just crazy and probably has mental health issues or at least a huge ego. Doesn't shut up and gloats hard after taking down every pot saying how he "bluffed" the other player. Given his aggression, he's definitely not lying every time. He also doesn't pick up on the fact that no one at the table likes him and probably thinks he's funny and enjoying the attention while everyone just thinks he's obnoxious. Yeah...if I bet $120 and he shoves might have to call it off cause he really could have anything. I would need like 35% equity and I do lose to 16 combos of JT, probably 25 to 30 flush combos (let's assume he flats the nuts and always shoves JT. But I still have 23% vs those and I do think he has enough bluffs and KQ to make this a call. It would be so sick but vs this guy I just probably can't fold.

But based on what people ITT are saying, definitely on board with a turn check.

I am not checking, I'm bet small-calling if the whale goes ham or bet-deciding if he goes ham+sb continues. I would bet NF for same sizing.

Seems like a pretty good spot to check

Might check KK before 99. Still so many hands from which to get value and it’s not like we can’t withstand a raise.

I probably check but it's close. Because we have the 9c, it's hard for the villain to have a hand with just one club in it because there aren't any many pairs with a club that call flop. They can have about 35 combos of flushes and straights and even if they are playing hands like K8 there are probably about the same amount of kings that we can get called by. Good chance we can get value from a K on the river anyway and we can induce some bluffs.

Bet. Our hand is too strong not to look for value here, we shouldn't shut down because a flush is possible. Odds are hero still has the best hand.

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Raise less pre $12-15

Ugh so much division on whether to bet or check. Still not sure lol...I do like what Amana said about betting this hand and checking KK.

That would be my more standard sizing but I'm basically trying to get heads up with V1, not trying to entice five callers because everyone wants to play a pot with V1. I know he's not folding even if I make it $25 but I think that would be too much risk too little reward in case someone wakes up and 3 bets.

Bet turn. This is a different spot than the QQ top set thread I posted a few weeks back, because here there's still a lot of Kx, particularly KXc, that we can get value from. If we had KK here I would check because theres so fewer combos to extract value from.