Game: 1/3 NL. 9 handed. Tables is very loose with a couple very aggressive players. Most people got a bad LAG style to put it as simple as possible. Most people here overplay the **** out of TPTK, chase to the river, and stack off pretty light. Stacks range as high as $3000 and the average stack is probably around 700.

Here ($400) is on the BTN. I'm the shortest stack here and have the image of an absolute NIT. I've been mostly card dead for the last 3-4 hours and must have played a total of 12 hands lmao

on to the hand...

UTG straddles for $6. entire table comes for the ride, including me with the 33. BB and SB both call. UTG checks the straddle.

Flop (~45): 893
Everybody checks, CO (~2000ish, bad reg with no specific tendencies) bets $15, I raise to about 60, everyone folds, CO calls

Turn(~165): 10
Co Checks, I bet ~130, CO calls

River (~430): Q
CO shoves, Hero ?

That old saying "when more than 4 ppl are in the pot at least one of them has a Jack" (or however it went) stuck out instantly when I saw that overbet lol. Is this an easy fold? And if I call, is it a bad call?

Yes it's a clear fold.

It hurts to be card dead, flop a set and get a terrible run out, but let's just range him.

On the flop a reasonable calling range for him would be 8x, 9x plus 67, 7T and TJ. On the turn, we may lose some 8x except T8 and J8.

On the river, he has lots of straights, a few two-pair hands (which in general will not jam here - they want their showdown) and one whiffed draw. Even if he bombed T7 every time we'd still have to fold.



Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk

It's never easy to fold a set when you've been card dead for hours but its tough to see this guy shoving anything worse than a straight for value after the biggest nit at the table raised the flop and bombed the turn.

He straddled utg he can have pairs otf that turn into open enders with a pair on the turn... J8, J9.. straight draw combos67, J10, J7, QJ gutshot float.

When he shoves the river it looks like he wants max value and doesn't want to risk you checking back if he checks. Your hand looks like two pair/sets. I'd probably sigh fold without more information on villains tendencies.

Seems he has TJ or nothing (how many nothing hands bet/call flop?), and with your nitty image + high aggression in previous streets I think this is an easy fold. He should check/call with any 2 pair/set/top pair hands instead of shoving. Only way I'd consider it is if you have seen this guy be very bluff heavy. I also think any reg would hesitate to bluff at a game where people are calling light.

nh, now fold

Gross, but yeah fold.

Had a feeling it was an easy fold but boredom tilt clouded the **** outta my judgement. Thanks for feedback everyone

SPOILER: Hero makes the "I'm most likely beat but I been folding for 4 hours straight and finally got a hand, I really don't wanna let this go" call. Villain shows JJ and scoops

The math is wrong on the flop. If the entire table called the straddle in a 9-handed game then the pot if $54 and not $45 on the flop.

This makes a difference when it comes to your raise size. Your opponent bet $15 into $54 so their is $70 in the pot. I would have raised to $70 atleast at this kind of table, setting up a much larger turn bet.

Since your opponents like to chase, I want to get most of the money in on the flop and turn. Too many times, they will just fold to any river bet when they miss so I'm making sure I get a lot of the money in on the flop and turn.

Additionally, made hands are never folding, so hands like two pair, top pair, will call almost any bet size, so the best exploit is to overbet with the goods against guys that have no fold button.

I'm cool with preflop. As stacks become much bigger, we do risk running into some RIO situations unless these guys are ******ed enough to stack off with big stacks with meh hands. $400 is working towards that territory where we might have to actually be cautious with bottom set (obviously opponent dependent).

On this board, I'm fairly convinced I have the nuts as 99/88 raise a lot preflop at active tables. No one at this table is going to fold a draw (OESD) or two pair on the flop, so I raise larger to offer poor 2:1 odds, so I go $90 on the flop.

Kinda gross card. 76 got there, as did QJ. Course he could have JT/etc. and be in never-fold mode. Is this a guy who will stack off with lol? Will he bluff if we check back and he misses? The more lol / less bluffy he is, the more I hammer the turn to setup a turn shove. The more he's not stacking off / will auto bluff river, the more I *might* check back the turn (which may be bad).

On the river, there are some weaker hands that could have gotten here and now decided to turn their pair + draw into a bluff. 98 (doubtful, probably would have gotten in more on earlier streets and simply taken showdown value on river). T7/97/87? Does 65 really get to the river? Overall, my guess is more we're up against Jx.

ETA: Ha, never had JJ in his range, unexpected. If we hadda folded the river, and perhaps bet bigger on each street, would have been a nice hand, imo.

GgrossG