Sunday night at Aria. Table is relatively lively and action is good.
Villain in this hand is an African American gentleman in his mid 50s. His VPIP/PFR is about 38/2 after 50 hands. In the first hand he played he limped in early position, I raised to $13 in MP, it folded back to him and he folded (he's in the 4 seat, I'm in the 7). Since then he's been limp/calling a lot rather than limp/folding. I've only observed him make one big bet postflop. In that hand there was a five way limped pot with him OTB, it came 59Tr, one player bet $15, another called, he made it $80, and everyone folded. In all other hands he has played very passively postflop. He starts the hand with $300.
Hero is a white guy in his late twenties. VPIP/PFR has been about 15/12 at this point. I've been getting HU or 3ways with most of my raises and c-betting frequently. Haven't shown down a hand yet. I start with $500.
On to the hand:
Villain limps in early position. Hero raises to $13 with 9
9
. Folds back to villain who calls. $26 in pot after drop.
Flop J
8
5
. Villain checks, hero bets $16, villain calls. $58 in pot.
From his body language I thought it was likely villain was on a draw at this point.
Turn J
8
5
K
. Villain checks, hero bets $35, villain calls. $128 in pot.
River J
8
5
K
9
. Villain quickly bets out $75. Hero ???
I know this sounds extremely nitty on the surface, but I felt concerned that there just weren't that many combos I can beat at this point. I would guess his bluffing frequency in this spot is less than 5%, and I'm not even sure that he bets this big with his two pair combos. I'm getting roughly 2.5:1 on my money, so I need to be good about 29% of the time. I'm losing to QT, 76, JJ; not sure if he plays flopped sets this way, so discount JJ to one combo. If I discount his straight combos to all suited combos and half the offsuit combos it means I'm behind a total of 11 combos. Since I discounted JJ, I'll also discount 55 and 88 to one combo each. Two pair combos he can hit on the river include three J9s, three 98s (although I'm not sure he calls two streets with 98); can't see him calling flop with K9 (except maybe K9hh?). Since I'm not sure if he leads out quickly for $75 with two pair combos I'll discount those to one each. So I'm ahead of 3 combos and losing to 11 combos. I guess that makes this a reasonable call?