Sunday night at Aria. Table is relatively lively and action is good.

Villain in this hand is an African American gentleman in his mid 50s. His VPIP/PFR is about 38/2 after 50 hands. In the first hand he played he limped in early position, I raised to $13 in MP, it folded back to him and he folded (he's in the 4 seat, I'm in the 7). Since then he's been limp/calling a lot rather than limp/folding. I've only observed him make one big bet postflop. In that hand there was a five way limped pot with him OTB, it came 59Tr, one player bet $15, another called, he made it $80, and everyone folded. In all other hands he has played very passively postflop. He starts the hand with $300.

Hero is a white guy in his late twenties. VPIP/PFR has been about 15/12 at this point. I've been getting HU or 3ways with most of my raises and c-betting frequently. Haven't shown down a hand yet. I start with $500.

On to the hand:

Villain limps in early position. Hero raises to $13 with 9 9. Folds back to villain who calls. $26 in pot after drop.

Flop J 8 5. Villain checks, hero bets $16, villain calls. $58 in pot.

From his body language I thought it was likely villain was on a draw at this point.

Turn J 8 5 K. Villain checks, hero bets $35, villain calls. $128 in pot.

River J 8 5 K 9. Villain quickly bets out $75. Hero ???

I know this sounds extremely nitty on the surface, but I felt concerned that there just weren't that many combos I can beat at this point. I would guess his bluffing frequency in this spot is less than 5%, and I'm not even sure that he bets this big with his two pair combos. I'm getting roughly 2.5:1 on my money, so I need to be good about 29% of the time. I'm losing to QT, 76, JJ; not sure if he plays flopped sets this way, so discount JJ to one combo. If I discount his straight combos to all suited combos and half the offsuit combos it means I'm behind a total of 11 combos. Since I discounted JJ, I'll also discount 55 and 88 to one combo each. Two pair combos he can hit on the river include three J9s, three 98s (although I'm not sure he calls two streets with 98); can't see him calling flop with K9 (except maybe K9hh?). Since I'm not sure if he leads out quickly for $75 with two pair combos I'll discount those to one each. So I'm ahead of 3 combos and losing to 11 combos. I guess that makes this a reasonable call?

Given his loose-passive style, we definitely cannot discount him playing GSSDs like T7 and QT, additionally, 67 is an OESD OTF. All these draws get there on the river.

In these spots, I find the turn body language/timing is very important. If he called the turn quicker than he called the flop, then the Kd almost definitely improved his hand, giving him a combo-draw (QThh/dd, AQhh, AThh), a pair + draw (KhXh), or made a GSSD into an OESD (QT only).

This sort of player is also not averse to c/cing flops with overcards hoping to bink a pair (or draw), so we can't rule out AK/KQ here, especially given his pre-flop passiveness.

Also, almost any 9x two pair is in his range, with only 95o being discounted considering his VPIP. This c/c, c/c, lead line can very often be a rivered 2P, although given your read that he was drawing on the flop a rivered two pair is very unlikely, especially since it would require him holding the case 9.

Additionally, most LLSNL players LOVE to slow-play, so there is still a non-zero chance that he made it this far with 88/55 (since he has raised pre at least once before, JJ and KK are discounted).

Also, whilst fishy players like this play draws passively on the flop and turn typically, the ONE time they will bluff is when their draw missed on the river and they have no hand.



Now, the timing of his river bet is VERY interesting in my opinion, as it narrows his range a LOT.

The speed of it to me SCREAMS that the river had some sort of effect on his hand, and it typically is very polarised to hands which improved on the river, or draws which bricked/got there.

As such, from the river bet timing, he has a 9sXx two pair, a straight or a busted flush draw the vast majority of the time. In fact, from this river timing I don't think he ever has Kx, or another set here.

Against a range of straights (T7 has been discounted to T7s because of the turn call), 9x two pairs (excluding 95o), and busted nut heart draws, we have 30.77% equity, this is just ahead of the 29% equity we require.

On the other hand, if he never bluffs here, we have 16.28% equity against this range, making it a losing call.

However, if we put MORE bluffs into his range here, namely all heart draws (40% VPIP = all sooted), and A-hi diamond draws (without a pair), then we have 61.7% equity, and it's obviously a call.

As such, the deciding factor into whether or not to call here is whether or not he ever bluffs here.

Considering that it's a lively/action table, bluffs are a bit more likely. Additionally, whilst he hasn't been seen to bluff yet, this sort of player ONLY bluffs a missed draw on the river, and as such he wouldn't have had the chance to bluff yet.

I call in this spot, as the chance he shows up with a missed draw in this spot is definitely non-zero, which thereby makes it a break even call at the very least.

He could really easily have KJ there.

His range is mostly 67, KJ, AKhh, AQdd, AJdd, KQhh, QThh, T7hh, and missed draws. I'm not really worried about the gutshots. I'm definitely not folding but it's close between a minraise/fold, a shove, and a flat.

Quick bets in this situation are, in my opinion, usually missed draws. Easy call.

Better question would be whether you bluff catch if the river was the T instead of the 9.

Big thing I want to stress is that in game I wondered whether he makes this bet with two pair. Have you ever played with a fish who bets the third nuts, watches you tank call, and then nervously asks whether you have the second nuts? I got that sort of vibe from this guy.

I remember a poster on here once who talked about how OMCs seem to have signed an agreement to only value bet the nuts in these sort of spots. For this hand straights are nuts 1-3, sets are 4-8, KJ is 9th, J9 is 14th. I discounted 55/88 since I usually picture him c/r the turn with those hands on a wet board; I think I can apply a lot of the same logic to KJ. So in the end I thought it was debatable as to whether there were combos I beat or whether this in actuality is always a straight.

don't foldy the nineys

Oh man, I've been in this situation exactly two times (only.) I had TPTK one time and an overpair the other. I bet 3/4 pot the the flop and turn, and the fish shrug-called. They may as well have opened their mouths and said "sure I'll gamble with ya. I'm uust drawing bro." The river completed the draw, they led out like 1/5th pot, and I almost ALMOST folded both times.

But I didn't, and of course they showed the completed draw.

Seriously, I think this is the time to go with your read. Sometimes you know people are on a draw because of their body language. When the draw hits an the ultra passive fish bets out it's time to fold. He's bluffing almost never.

grunch: call

i don't think i could ever bring myself to fold here. if you put a good amount of bluffs or hands he would fold to a raise in his range, then call. if you think he may call you down with 1 pair or 2 pair then shove it. from what i can sense from your post i'd be thinking "what can i beat that would call a raise?" and come up with only random 2 pairs so i'd call.

I think a big key here is what does V have that he doesn't feel compelled to blow you off your hand on the Turn? AKh/QTh/K9h? Is he not secure enough with his hand to c/r or is he handling this differently since it's HU whereas the example hand was multi-way? What I am looking at is that he is not 'affraid' of the flush draws on the Turn ... so does that mean he's on one or just not that strong (1pr/draw). Based on description I dont see V getting too aggessive with draws.

This is 'never' JJ (maybe 88, but doubtful) ... This is 'never' 'just' a flush draw, must have pair(s) with straight draws tied to it IMO. I agree with OP that the 9 must have done something for his hand, just maybe not 'everything' that he wanted it to do and thus the rushed, very value looking bet.

I dont like to lay this down but is does seem to me that this was a 'money' card ... and not in your favor. That doesn't mean I would lay it down every time though ... GL

I just can't see myself folding. Looks like he maybe had a combo draw but he could also have 88 or KJ. I just don't like folding sets

One other hand that involves this villain (it happened an orbit after this hand and was thus not something I could consider for my decision, but still interesting/amusing):

V limps in MP, hero raises to $13 OTB w A8cc, folds back to V who calls. $26 in pot after drop.

Flop Qh 6c 2s. V checks, hero bets $16, V open mucks JJ.

That makes me feel like you pissed him off by calling with your set against his 2 pr ...

This is pretty close to my thought process as I counted out three $25 stacks and started to shuffle them. "Your game is already pretty nitty. If you fold here you'll move up to level 8 nit. Are you ready for that?"

The math says call. Just say nh if he rivered some miracle draw.

Only exception would be if you've seen V play KK or JJ this passively on a different hand.

Results:

I think for about ten seconds and call. Villain tables 7 6 for the straight. Flopped OESD and picked up a flush draw on the turn.

Sucks that it was the 9 because I think I get away from any of his other outs with the same bet pretty easily.

As I alluded to, in game I was a bit annoyed at myself because it seems like there's a chance that this villain ONLY makes this bet this quickly with a straight. Math says I only need to be winning 29% of the time, but in this exact scenario I might only be winning 10%-15%.
- Two pair I think he probably takes time to think about it and bets something like $50
- Sets (88/55) seem more likely to check/raise the turn or flop
- Against many players I expect to see some missed draws bluffing, but this player seems like the type to have an extremely low bluffing frequency