Early in session. Table is loose passive and I recognize two regular $1/3 players that I think are winning players. Main villain in this hand is one of the regulars and I have observed him limping a ton of speculative hands. My assumption is that he is trying to get one of the looser villains to stack off when he hits something. I don't think the way he is playing at this time is profitable. I have seen 67o and similar terrible hands being limped from him UTG/ UTG+1 etc.

OTTH ($450 effective) villain is UTG+1 and limps. Hero in MP (2 seats to his left) isolates to $15 with Q9s. I think a case can be made for all three decisions pre, but I elected to go with raising. I hadn't seen how he reacts to being isolated yet and I don't mind doing it with this hand. I could also limp along or just fold. Rest of table folds and he is only caller.

Flop ($30) 965 Villain checks and I bet $20

Turn ($67) K He checks. I don't mind a check back here, but there are so many draws and my hand is pretty vulnerable. I would like to be able to bluff my low equity hands I C-bet on the flop on the K turn so I bet $40.

River ($147) 3 Complete brick. I try to go for thin value against the 97, 98, 67, 68 type hands that are non-believers and bet $55.

Thoughts?

probably checking turn back but as played thin value should be fine unless you think villain is capable of check raising you as a bluff in which case i'm fine with just getting to showdown here.

Thin value sounds good. A king isn't likely and I discount higher PPs. Players who play tons of hands also seem to call down light too often which is why I bet.

Overall, I think it's pretty thin but should be profitable.

Obviously b/f, but I don't think we're concerned about a x/r bluff here. (Though it's a possibility.)

The K is a great barreling card: brick for all draws except KcXc, over to the board, hit your perceived range. Normally that would argue he must have something decent to call the turn and so a river bet would be less advisable.

But in this case, he can have 98o, 97o, 76o, 75o, all of which could find a call OTT and might look us up OTR.

He's played the hand very passively. Most LLSNL V's are too passive so nothing exceptional there.

I think he has slightly more combos that will call and lose than combos that will call and win or raise. I don't think he's bluff raising hardly ever.

Thin, but I like it.

i like how the hand was played honestly. bet the river

Even though we managed to get this HU in position with initiative and an easy-to-play SPR (a great result even though our hand is meh), I just don't think we can expect this enough from opening from this position. I fold preflop.

I'm either/or on the flop. The more ABC he is, the more I simply bet/fold. The more tricky he can be, the more I check this flop with intentions of getting to showdown.

I'm a little torn on the turn. It's actually possible our bet here can be a bluff against some passive limp/calling hands that are actually ahead, and meanwhile we do charge for draws. But at the same time we lose most else worse hands that are drawing slim and don't enable him to attempt to river bluff his busted draws. I don't hate a bet/fold but I'd likely mostly lean to checking back (small hand small pot).

I guess river might be really dependent on your image. Are you double/triple barrelling air a lot and getting caught? Cuz if you ain't, then it's pretty damn thin, imo. I'm pretty happy to check back at this point and really don't think I'm missing that much value (but then again I'm a nit who is very unlikely to get paid off by worse). Like I mention on the turn, there's actually an argument to be made that it's a bluff against some passively played hands, but I think our hand is too strong to bluff.

ETA: What's Villains read on you? The more nittier / tighter / ABC you are seen as, the more you see "biggish" type hands simply go into check/call mode fearing you actually have a monster (although never folding), so we own ourselves a bunch with a river bet.

GcluelessNLnoobG

It would be a great card to barrel if we have air, but is it a great card to barrel when we have showdown value and aren't really intending the bet as a bluff?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Poor phrasing on my part. I should have said the K would be a great card to bluff with if we had a different hand.

If the board were dry, I would think we should check this back. But with all the draws, I think we should continue extracting some value. I like the relatively small bet (even smaller might be a bit better), since we're attempting to extract value from draws and weaker 9's. I'm not worried so much about odds offered because I'm not planning to call much if a draw comes in.

I'm cool with this line of thought.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I’m definitely betting turn. River I could go either way. Let’s say there are 24 combos of 9x we beat, 8 combos of 9x we lose to. Then there are a few combos of Kx, particularly of clubs we lose to. I’m definitely good with betting A9 as long as he’s like most and will almost never check raise bluff here, I’m not sure about Q9.

I like the line especially if he is passive and super sticky

might convince himself you missed a flush and call you light

I don't mind how I played it either. Turns out he had K2cc and called after a small pause. Just wanted a little checkup and see if others thought it was too thin.

I'd bet more OTR. You are trying to rep a bluff. A bigger bet will be called somewhat less often, but be overall more profitable I think. Just bad luck running into Kx clubs.