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Old 06-24-2018, 02:38 AM   #1
Phil Me Up
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1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

Read/assumptions (right or wrong): Villain seems like an advanced beginner trying to play well, but is too loose/passive, and doesn't seem to read hands/situations well. He has shown the ability to find folds in some spots, but not in others. Figured taking control of the betting 3-way vs guys I figure as passive is a good thing here, but maybe a x/r would've been better OTF. Turn I think is pretty obvious to keep the lead, and sized up to set up a river shove. River card is pretty ****ty and I don't want to lose his JJ+. What's our sizing here/why? Hero's image is tight/ABC, no relevant hands/history. We're $450 effective. OTTH:

Hero (SB): 7 7

Villain (UTG) r $15, MP (semi-loose/ABC) calls, Hero (SB) calls

Flop ($48): T 7 3

Hero b $35, V c $35, fold

Turn ($111): 4

Hero b $100, V c $100

River ($311): 2

Hero ???
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Old 06-24-2018, 03:03 AM   #2
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

Leading flop is fine. I might x/r shove turn but leading is obviously fine as well.

Torn between bet 160 and just shoving OTR. Shoving might look a bit scary with the flush coming down. I think bet 160 is a little better.
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Old 06-24-2018, 04:26 AM   #3
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

50
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Old 06-24-2018, 04:54 AM   #4
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

Agree with ChrisV. I don't think worse is calling a jam. I'm probably not expecting a call unless V hit the flush.
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Old 06-24-2018, 05:04 AM   #5
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

How do we range villain? Seems like he should have overpairs/AJss+/TT a lot. I think NFDs should fold turn a lot and in fact it kind of doesn't matter if they don't because we make a ton of money potting turn vs. FDs. So say 24 combos we beat vs. 6 we lose against.

Agree with Chris that potting river will fold overpairs a lot. OTOH if we bet $150, kind of a sick spot if he shoves. If we shove and he folds everything we beat, it's bad. If we shove and he calls off like QQ+, well that's a good result. I'm not sure there is one clearly better line based on the information received. We have to bet though. I lean more to $150 because if you call this far you're likely calling again.
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Old 06-24-2018, 06:05 AM   #6
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan View Post
50
Too small of a small bet. 100 again is better as there's prolly 0 induce available.
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Old 06-24-2018, 06:32 AM   #7
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

I like 100 here because only a flush reraises and it'd have to be a very good flush to do that I think. I was in a similar situation yesterday with a made straight on the river and the villain called me with an 86 flush. He was certain I hit it too.
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Old 06-24-2018, 07:19 AM   #8
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

Fwiw I would have x/r on the flop looking to make a big bet on the turn.
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Old 06-24-2018, 10:09 AM   #9
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

$110.

More likely C/C flop, with plan to C/R turn. Shouldn't be many FD/98s in his UTG raising range, so willing to leave middle set somewhat unprotected on T-high board. Over cards may "catch up", over pairs will continue.
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Old 06-24-2018, 02:42 PM   #10
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

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Too small of a small bet. 100 again is better as there's prolly 0 induce available.
You suck bet passive fish. Here to make money and get a call from his entire range. Any raise is a routine fold.
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Old 06-24-2018, 07:01 PM   #11
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

But he'll call his entire range for 100, so why bet 50?
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Old 06-25-2018, 12:42 AM   #12
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

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But he'll call his entire range for 100, so why bet 50?
I wonít argue too hard, but these types tend to have such a low threshold calling death-boards for any amount that doesnít seem trivial in real life. It isnít about relativity to the pot either, I just feel you get to hear ďa hundred dollars?!Ē and then they muck too often.
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Old 06-25-2018, 12:46 PM   #13
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

Against a noobish type player I probably call preflop as well. It's not a slamdunk spot due to being OOP, we'll flop a set a bunch of times on boards that enables him to fold, we'll lose with our flopped sets, etc.

SPR is 9 on the flop, which means we can setup a play for stacks by the river with 2 big flop/turn bets. I like the donk lead. It's likely this guy has an overpair, he might raise us, he's very unlikely to fold to a couple of donks. I don't like our sizing, I would PSB/PSB to setup an easier river shove; this smallish flop bet is really going to make getting stacks in by the river difficult (unless we're trying to induce a flop raise), plus there are a bunch of turn/river cards that could slow down action.

I'm fine with turn.

On the river we have about a PSB left, but it's a ~$300 PSB, and that's quite a big bet for a 1/3 NL game, ime. Plus the main draw got there. We're really looking to get paid off by overpairs, plus might even be able to make an insane fold to a raise. I might do a "same bet" of $100ish or so and contemplate a sick fold if raised.

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Old 06-25-2018, 02:14 PM   #14
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

I'd go $125-$150 so I don't look too weak. Same bet usually means "I don't have a flush and am blocker betting you. Please don't jam."
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Old 06-25-2018, 02:49 PM   #15
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I'd go $125-$150 so I don't look too weak. Same bet usually means "I don't have a flush and am blocker betting you. Please don't jam."
Yeah, that's fair enough, against someone who could do that we might have to size up more than a same bet.

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Old 06-25-2018, 04:03 PM   #16
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

No one at 1/3 is doing that. And if it is the case then you call.
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Old 06-26-2018, 05:16 PM   #17
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

Appreciate all the feedback.
Spoiler:
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Old 06-26-2018, 07:52 PM   #18
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

lol, cant say I saw that coming.
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Old 06-27-2018, 12:06 AM   #19
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Re: 1/3 River Sizing w/ a Set

I guess I got off easy all things considered
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