1/3 NL

Villian is a loose-passive reg, who primarily plays the game like a slot machine, limp/calling a very wide range. Constantly bemoaning his runbad. He is far-above average in his hand reading abilities, positionally aware and altogether competent in his knowledge of the game; it's like he knows better, but cant help but play poorly.

A PFR from V is reserved for 99+ and ATs+. He’s never 3betting light and its almost 100% QQ+, AKs+.

Villain views Hero as competent, somewhat on the LAG/exploitive side.

Hero is MP (590) w/ AcAh and opens to 15.

V (covers) 3bets to 40 from SB.

Hero 4bets to 90

I know he’s AKs+, QQ+ and I’m trying to get him to 5bet. The sizing, though small, is enough to deny his set-mining odds.

V calls.

Flop (180) KT2ssc

Check. Check. I wanted to keep his range as wide as possible, and knew that I would be checking at least one street.

Turn (180) 5s.

V bets 100. Hero calls.

Again, trying to control the pot and keep his range wide; I feel a raise narrows his range to AsKx and KK.

River(380) 8d.

V checks.

Hero? If we're betting, what's our plan if V check-raises?

your thinking is flawed imo, why would you want to keep is range as wide as possible? when Vs range is wide its hard to put him on a hand. you say you know he has AK or QQ+ but this seems either results orientated or just wrong.

if you believe your read pre flop then this should be an easy value bet otf.

as played i dont think V has much of anything and the turn bet just seems like a stab.

i think hero can comfortably value bet river for 200-250

Against such a strong 3-bet range, I'm pretty tempted to just shove pre, and expect the bad reg to level himself into thinking I wouldn't do this with AA. This depends a lot on how he views you though. If he calls with KK and QQ it's a home run. There are 12 total combinations of those hands and only 2 possible AKs.

I actually don't think the 4bet size is enough to prevent setmining odds. Overall, he's getting immediate + implied odds of about 12:1 in a 4bet pot where we'll never be able to fold postflop due to very low SPR. Have to 4bet much bigger here, imo. Plus we know he's strong, plus he knows we're laggy, plus he's not capable of folding (even if he knows he should). ETA: And I actually love the shove idea mentioned above.

As played, SPR is 2.5 and we's got an overpair. Just as many AK combos as KK combos. We're commited, imo, let's do this thing before this drawy board gets scarier and he can manage a fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't like the flop check at all. It sets up a dynamic where you never really know where you are in the hand and lets him play second best hands (especially AK) way cheaper than they should be able to. We have position, so we can get out of trouble if it arises.

I understand that you may have gotten an extra $100 out of QQ or JJ by checking but you probably could have gotten $300 from AK and you may have gotten the same $100 that you did on the turn with a flop bet.

I like bet(fold to raise)/bet(fold to raise)/check here.

As played, I can't imagine that he is checking the river with any hand that beats you. The way you have played this gives him no reason to think that he can get a check-raise in on the river. So I am bet/folding $175-200.

I don't see how we can bet/fold in a SPR 2.5 pot when opponent also has no option other than to play for stacks with AK here.

If the hand played out differently, I would agree that AK should be committed to playing for stacks. But at this point, only 1/3 of the effective stacks have gone in by the turn so there is not the same level of pot commitment as if it had played out normally (action on flop, action on turn).

The way that it has played out, he is not going for a check-raise on the river with AK, as there is no way that he can expect us to bet this river and AK is about the twentieth nuts. I think that we can be confident that if he does check-raise us on the river, our AA is never good and we can save the $200 or so that we have behind.

Put differently, let's say we bet $200 on the river here and he goes all in. We need to call $200 for a pot of just short of $1000. Is he bluffing or doing this with AK more than 17% of the time? I really doubt it. And if we are truly concerned that he could c/r us, we can put out a smaller bet - say, $150 - that makes it easier for us to fold to a shove.

However, I do believe that he makes a crying call with AK (or maybe even QQ since we played this so weakly) fairly often so there is value to be had in a river bet.

I think you're too deep to get all in pre, but I like a 4-bet of 120. With a K out there on the flop - the check doesn't give you any info in my opinion. If you bet out and he call you can put him on AK. If he re-raises you can throw out QQ and put him on KK.

With V's range already so narrow, I wanted to prevent narrowing it further, I think that across his range I average greater wins and smaller losses by checking the flop. I can potentially get a call or bet from QQ or JJ on later streets and definitely AK. Further, I have no real need to protect my hand, I'm WA/WB.

Particularly against this opponent, I felt the circumstance to be RIO. When he has QQ/JJ he is unlikely to call a flop bet, AK he is stationing off, but when he has KK I'll eventually be faced with a tough decision for my entire stack. As I have two A, AK is a smaller portion of his PF range than usual, though still larger than KK, 8 AK compared to the 6 of KK.

By checking the flop I increase the likelihood that he continues with the portion of his range that I beat, at no danger to becoming second best, and I minimize my losses to KK.

I like this idea, or simply an overbet 4bet to like 180, so I have a PSB and easy decision OTF. I didn't consider this option but find it worthwhile.

Small sizing doesn't completely prevent set mining from said villain, wtf is FE in 4! pots? So you're never folding when he hits. As you mentioned he has a tough time folding, SPR is also getting super low so I'm not sure why we're hesitant otf on a drawy board in a 4! pot.


Edit after reading OP's follow up: To be fair, this is a 4! pot with an SPR of 2 and change with an overpair, you really don't have any tougher decisions than if you had 4! more preflop.

I HATE the check. Your giving him infinity/1 odds to hit what ever he needs. You can make a mint off these guys with AA. Get it in on that flop (I like getting it in preflop as well). If he is on a draw, he'll call. Even though he's not getting good odds.

90 pf seems like a terrible size that turns your hand face up. Vs his pf range and description I think shoving pf is best.