1/3 10 handed mid-week afternoon
H (covers) - mid 30's WG glasses, jeans & T. Semi regular (~10hrs a mnth)
V1 (700) - Mid 30's middle eastern guy, quiet, I'm getting a 'newish reg on a heater vibe'. Started session very tight passive/trappy, but has gotten looser and more aggro both pre and post as since winning a few pots.
V2 (450) - MAAG he's been at the table an hr or so, splashy and gambly. Loose and sporadically agro.

OTTH

V2 (MP) - 15
H (B) - call A2ss
V1 (BB) - call

Flop (40) - 10s9s6x
V1 x
v2 20
H call
V1 call

Turn (100) - Ks 10s9s6x
V1 - donks 85
V2 - call
H - 260
V1 - tank calls.
V2 folds
V1 had been very quiet, statuesque the entire session (4hrs) until this point. He was agonizing, never a hollywood job. Actually showed his buddy who was railbirdin, finally says 'I can't fold this hand' and calls.

River (620) - Kx Ks10s9s6x
V1 - x (~400 behind)
H - ?

I think pretty standard up to turn, think the turn raise is pretty mandatory for value and to charge sets. Wasn't sure about sizing.

Check bet or jam river?
What does the pained tank mean?

Jam

Tank call on turn could be a lot of things other than sets or the straight flush. KxQs, KxJs, QJ with or without a spade or any flush would all have a tough time folding turn.

If V1 had flopped a set he'd likely have raised such a wet flop. It's almost impossible for him to have KK. So I think boats/quads are heavily discounted here.

So I think you're winning a lot here. Betting or shoving is the question in my opinion. Personally I'd probably jam because it looks more like a nutflush bluff than if you go same bet trying to get a crying call.

If he shows you the winning hand I bet it's QJss

Shove

*Vomits*

In all honesty, I feel like this is one of those spots where prior tendencies of villain will completely make our decision otr.

If there was no tank on the turn, I think this is a pretty easy jam trying to target small flushes that can’t fold here, as villains range will contain many. But, I assume most players at 1/3 wouldn’t view this turn card as an agonizing spot with a small flush. Perhaps on the river, but not turn.

With the info on the turn, I think villain will have hands like KT, QJ, KJ/KQ with a spade, and potentially some oddly played sets a lot more often than a flush. It doesn’t mean he never has one, it just seems like he’d be more weighted to these hands which could definitely be perceived as tough spots on the turn.

With that being said, this is arguably the worst river in the deck, as most of that range is either boated up or beating nothing. So, if we know villain has a tendency to find folds in spots by properly reading hands and assessing situations, I could definitely find a check back here, as any perceptive villain will realize that we’re extremely polarized with a jam and will find folds with almost all the hands we beat. But, if we’ve seen villain as a payoff wizard in the past, or we don’t believe him to be fully competent in hand reading, we could probably jam and expect to get called and be good against 50+% of his range.

Unfortunately, it seems a bit more likely that villain is a part of the former category, and might be able to make the correct lay down against us. If that’s true, I would probably make what could easily be the weakest check back ever made.

$400. not ever checking back

If you're checking back in these spots, you are throwing away free money.

There are many hands V could have in their range. If you're afraid of KT and checking back because that represents 10% of their range that is terrible play.

Jam in this spot, this is an incredibly easy and profitable play.

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Results
I jammed and he folded QxJs face up

In game I thought it was an obvious shove, but doubted myself with hindsight.

If his calling range is j high flushes+, and his PF call range includes say J8ss+, Q8ss+, K8ss+ he has like 10 calls OTR.
If he's folding a bunch of small flushes, 15 QJ's, a couple of KxXs, not sure total folds but got to be pushing 40 combos.
I think flop/turn play pretty much rules out boats.

So i think if he calls over 20 of his small flush and straights for say $200 I make more than the 10 times he calls the shove.

The more I (over)think about it the more I like $200, but I'm prob just giving the guy too much credit for being able to fold a small flush TBH

Cheers for responses

Not so much that I’d be worried about running into KT, I’m just curious if we can get value from worse in a range that imo doesn’t contain many flushes. Just doesn’t seem like he would be agonizing ott with a flush.